NASCAR’s 10-race Cup series playoff begins Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (NBCSN) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and we have the playoff picture mapped out for you, right down to our picks on who will be crowned the champion.
Here’s a full breakdown of the 16 playoff drivers: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola, Jimmie Johnson, Alex Bowman.
Our ESPN experts go round-by-round:
Mike Clay, ESPN
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Blaney, Jones, Larson, Hamlin
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Keselowski, Bowyer, Elliott, Blaney, Larson
Final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Larson
Champion: Larson
I’m sticking with my preseason pick. Yes, Larson has had some absurdly-bad luck and hasn’t managed a single win this season, but he’s certainly been competitive and is one of the best raw talents in the field. Larson ranks fourth behind only the “Big Three” in top-5s (eight) and laps led (666) and is tied for fifth in top-10s (14). Larson has also been terrific at Homestead (his 7.6 career average finish is worse than only Harvick). If Larson gets to the final four round, he’ll have as good as shot as any driver to take home the gold.
Ricky Craven, ESPN NASCAR analyst
Second round: Harvick, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Truex, Larson, Bowyer, Hamlin, Jones, Elliott, Logano, Almirola, Kurt Busch
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Elliott, Larson, Bowyer, Keselowski, Jones
Final four: Harvick, Kyle Busch, Bowyer, Elliott
Champion: Kyle Busch
Truex is worthy of a second title. He has the speed, but the distraction for team members as the season winds down leads to too many mistakes. Elliott will finagle his way into the final four, something that he nearly accomplished last year. Bowyer’s dream season comes up a bit short. So it comes down to the two drivers who dominated statistically during the regular season. In the end, I give it to Kyle Busch in part because of what I saw from him and his team a few weeks ago in Bristol, rallying back from early adversity in a damaged race car to contend late. I believe he and the No. 18 team are a bit more resilient, Kyle is in his prime, and the concentrated effort of Toyota in this final race is too much to overcome. Kyle Busch becomes a two-time champion in 2018.
Ryan McGee, ESPN senior writer
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Jones, Larson, Hamlin, Johnson
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Keselowski, Logano, Johnson, Larson, Hamlin
Final four: Harvick, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Hamlin
Champion: Kyle Busch
The moment this elimination format was announced during the Charlotte media tour in January, I remember leaning over to the writers next to me and saying, “This is made for Kyle Busch.” I still believe that it is.
Alisha Miller, ESPN.com
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Blaney, Larson, Johnson, Hamlin
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Larson, Elliott, Johnson, Hamlin
Final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Larson
Champion: Kyle Busch
The “Big Three” have captivated NASCAR and its fans all season long. Why stop now? I’m anticipating the playoffs playing out in the same arc that the regular season followed — Kyle Busch and Harvick going nose to nose, and Busch rolling into Victory Lane at Homestead.
Scott Page, Jayski editor
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex, Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Blaney, Larson, Hamlin, Almirola
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex, Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Larson, Hamlin
Final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex, Larson
Champion: Larson
Larson will win because of NASCAR karma. The discussion all year has been about the “Big Three” of Busch, Harvick, and Truex, with only passing discussion of the final championship driver. Larson runs well at Homestead, so it seems as though it would be appropriate for him to grab the win and take home the championship. That would open up a whole new discussion of the playoff system and who is and isn’t worthy of being a champion.
Bob Pockrass, ESPN.com
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Jones, Larson, Hamlin, Johnson
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Keselowski, Logano, Kurt Busch, Larson, Hamlin
Final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Truex, Larson
Champion: Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch’s team has executed well this year and it just appears they are getting the most out of their cars on most days. Busch is still upset over losing a year ago. The toughest cuts at the end of each round were: choosing Jones over Blaney to make it out of the first round, choosing Logano over Bowyer to make it out of the second round and leaving Keselowski and Hamlin out of the final four.
Marty Smith, ESPN
Second round: Harvick, Truex, Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Bowyer, Keselowski, Logano, Larson, Jones, Elliott, Johnson
Third round: Harvick, Truex, Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Bowyer, Keselowski, Elliott
Final four: Harvick, Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Keselowski
Champion: Harvick
Harvick is locked in. He’s been on a mission from the second they opened the gates at Daytona. Busch will be a tough out, but Harvick and Rodney Childers are relentless.
Scott Symmes, ESPN.com
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Blaney, Larson, Denny Hamlin, Jones
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Larson
Final four: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Elliott, Larson
Champion: Larson
Conventional wisdom says Harvick and Kyle Busch will be duking it out in the closing laps at Homestead, but I’m going to roll the dice and take Larson to steal the title. Larson is a force at Homestead (three straight top-5’s, 277 laps led in the past two races), where the fast top groove plays to his strengths, so the spoiler potential is real. That said, Larson is hardly a lock to make it that far. Although the speed is there, the No. 42 team doesn’t have a lot of playoff points to lean on and hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency. I might regret not picking Keselowski, who’s riding back-to-back wins, for the championship four. The same goes for Truex Jr., but I think the No. 78 team will be derailed (you can argue it already has) by its impending closure.
Matt Willis, ESPN Stats & Information
Second round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Keselowski, Bowyer, Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Blaney, Jones, Larson, Hamlin
Third round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Elliott, Larson, Hamlin
Final round: Kyle Busch, Harvick, Kurt Busch, Elliott
Champion: Harvick
Thanks to their bonus points, Kyle Busch and Harvick merely need to avoid two races of trouble in a round to not cruise into the Round of 8, and I think both have no issues getting to the end. Keselowski usually owns plate tracks but has six DNF in his past eight races, so Talladega spells his end. If Larson can get to Homestead still in it, he’s the favorite, but the round of eight tracks are among his weakest. Kurt Busch and Elliott’s consistency puts them in the final round with Kyle Busch and Harvick. There’s been seven races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, both Kyle Busch and Harvick have three wins in those. But I’ll give Harvick the ever-so-slight edge at Homestead based on his track history.