Let’s get right to it: The Los Angeles Dodgers are a better team than the Colorado Rockies. This isn’t really a matter of debate, although I’m guessing more than a few Rockies fans will disagree with that statement.
The Dodgers have outscored the Rockies by 39 runs. That never happens. Or almost never. Since the Rockies joined the National League West in 1993, they’ve outscored the Dodgers every season except one — in 2006, the Dodgers outscored the Rockies 820-813. Of course, that’s a function of altitude as much as the quality of the offenses, but the fact that the Dodgers are outscoring the Rockies tells us they clearly have the superior offense in 2018.
The Dodgers also have allowed 133 fewer runs than Colorado. Of course, that’s not unusual; the Rockies have never allowed fewer runs than the Dodgers. The closest was 2010, when the Dodgers allowed just 25 fewer runs. Last season, when both teams made the playoffs, the Dodgers allowed 177 fewer. Still, this is one of the best pitching staffs in Rockies history. Even adjusting for home parks, however, the Dodgers have the better ERA (115 ERA+ to 106, via Baseball-Reference.com).
And yet … here are we. The Dodgers blanked the Padres 14-0 on Sunday as Hyun-Jin Ryu lowered his ERA to 2.00 on the season, and the Rockies shut out the Diamondbacks 2-0 behind seven sterling innings by Kyle Freeland, so the Dodgers’ slim lead in the NL West remains 1½ games. All the Rockies need to win the division is one great week and one so-so week from the Dodgers.
How did this happen? How have the Dodgers put themselves in such a precarious position despite huges advantage in run differential, payroll, depth and trade-deadline acquisitions?
As you would guess, the run differential is explained by a big spread in one-run results and blowouts (games decided by five or more runs):
One-run games
Dodgers: 22-21
Rockies: 26-15
Blowouts
Dodgers: 30-9 (plus-175 run differential)
Rockies: 14-20 (minus-32 run differential)
The interesting thing about the one-run results is that the Dodgers’ bullpen has a better win probability added than the Rockies’ bullpen — 2.43 to 1.75 (entering Sunday, via FanGraphs). Look at WPA as sort of a stand-in for clutch. The Dodgers’ pen did have that stretch of notable late-game defeats in August, but otherwise has been solid enough. In fact, the Dodgers are 74-6 when leading after seven innings and the Rockies are 69-7.
When we dig into games decided by two to four runs, these are the results:
Dodgers: 35-39
Rockies: 45-35
You could argue that the Dodgers have simply padded their stats against bad teams — after all, seven of their 30 blowout wins have come against the Padres. But 15 of the blowout wins have come against decent or good teams: Brewers (2), Pirates (3), Cardinals (1), Rockies (2), Mariners (2), Phillies (1), Braves (2), Diamondbacks (1), Nationals (1).
You can argue that the number of blowout losses for the Rockies is a sign of a lack of depth in the bullpen; that could be true. You’re losing by three or four runs and then you bring in the seventh and eighth relievers on the staff and they get pounded instead of keeping the game relatively close.
You could argue that it’s a funky Coors Field thing, although only 12 of the 20 blowout losses have come at home. And that doesn’t explain the lack of blowout wins at home. It has been suggested the Rockies are streaky because they’re good when Ian Desmond or Carlos Gonzalez are hitting, adding much-needed depth behind Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but when those two aren’t hitting, they’re really not hitting.
By expected record based on run differential, the Dodgers should be 98-58 and the Rockies 78-77. I’m just pointing that out — run differential, as we’ve just seen, doesn’t always explain everything. On those rare occasions it doesn’t, it gives us a crazy race like this one. Thanks goodness for the unexpected.
It comes down to this. One week for the Dodgers to prove they’re the best team in the NL West. The Rockies have seven games at home — four against a Phillies team that looks like it’s playing on fumes (6-14 in September) and was eliminated over the weekend and three against a Nationals team that can’t wait for the season to end. The Dodgers finish up on the road against the Diamondbacks and Giants and at the minimum they’ll have some tough games while facing Robbie Ray on Monday and Zack Greinke on Wednesday (looks like they’ll miss Madison Bumgarner over the weekend). Who you got?
Little League play of the day: The Brewers and Cubs both won to keep the NL Central at 2½ games in favor of Chicago. The Brewers benefited from this three-run wild pitch:
Well that was… wild. #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/bSBgML7ar1
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) September 23, 2018
The Cubs beat the White Sox 6-1 behind Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts. Ben Zobrist had three hits and is hitting .314/.387/.450, including a .354 average in the second half. I’ve barely mentioned him in this space over the season, but he has been remarkable, bouncing back from a down year in 2017. He has been one of the unsung heroes of the 2018 season.
Big ovation for Beltre: The Rangers play their final week on the road, so Sunday may have been Adrian Beltre‘s final home game for Texas. He received hugs and an emotional farewell from the crowd when removed from the game:
Who’s cutting onions? pic.twitter.com/XZDEIMMhlM
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) September 23, 2018
At the conclusion of the fifth inning, the Rangers played a video tribute to Beltre and when he took his place in the field for the sixth, Rougned Odor came on to replace him. Beltre isn’t one for celebrations, but he said he let himself enjoy this one. “Seeing the crowd, seeing my teammates, everybody cheering for us. It was special, it was emotional, but it was nice,” he said.
Beltre has yet to decide on his plans for 2019. He’s hitting .275/.333/.431 in 114 games with 14 home runs, so he still has a little juice in the bat and the defensive metrics say he can still pick it at the hot corner (plus-9 defensive runs saved). He’ll also turn 40 next April, he has cemented his legacy as a first-ballot Hall of Famer and the Rangers probably want to open up third base for Jurickson Profar. (Elvis Andrus can opt out of his contract, potentially complicating things for the Rangers.)
Beltre’s eight-year run in Texas was remarkable, including four top-seven finishes in the MVP voting (peaking at third in 2012, when he hit .321 with 36 home runs). His two-way ability made him one of the best “old” players ever, ranking 10th all-time in WAR among position players from ages 32 to 39 (behind only Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Ted Williams since World War II). He reached the World Series in his first year in Texas, but the Rangers lost Games 6 and 7 and never made it back. If Beltre does decide to play in 2019, you have to think it would come with a playoff contender, maybe in a part-time role in a final pursuit of a ring.
Chasing history: Chase Utley‘s best seasons obviously came with the Phillies, but he received a nice ovation for his final home game with the Dodgers. He has already announced his retirement at season’s end:
A standing ovation for Chase Utley in his final regular-season home game. pic.twitter.com/VpkwRe8F2U
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 23, 2018
Utley is hitting .216/.301/.309 and while he has played 83 games as a role player, he probably gets squeezed off the postseason roster. I count 13 position players ahead of him (not including Alex Verdugo) and it seems like the Dodgers would carry 12 pitchers.
Utley’s Hall of Fame case is much less certain than Beltre’s and will prove to be a fascinating debate when he hits the ballot. At his peak, he was one of the best two or three players in the game for a five- or six-year period, but his career lacks the longevity and counting stats you usually see from Hall of Famers. Still, he compares favorably to, say, Ryne Sandberg:
Victor’s march: Tigers DH Victor Martinez played his final game on Saturday and the Tigers sent him into retirement with a leather recliner and a video tribute:
2153 hits
1178 RBIs
246 home runs
Two-time Silver Slugger Award winner
And so much more#ThanksVMart pic.twitter.com/btAg66aeE2— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 23, 2018
Martinez had one of those careers that probably wasn’t appreciated enough. He came up as an offense-first catcher for the Indians, helping them reach the American League Championship Series in 2007 when he finished seventh in the MVP voting after hitting .301 with 114 RBIs. He eventually moved to DH with the Tigers and his 2014 season stands out.
That was the year of the dead ball, when offense plummeted and everybody was worried about the state of hitting, yet Martinez hit .335/.409/.565 with 32 home runs, leading the AL in OBP and OPS, while drawing 70 walks and striking out just 42 times. (OK, 28 of the walks were intentional, but it felt almost impossible to strike out Martinez that year. I still remember watching one battle against Yu Darvish, who threw the kitchen sink at Martinez, who kept fouling off pitches.) He finished second in the MVP voting. He was also a great postseason performer, hitting .315/.374/.503 in 39 games.
Brawl of the year: Finally, I give you this:
Ichiro’s just horsin’ around. pic.twitter.com/zXFj2DtMEw
— Cut4 (@Cut4) September 23, 2018
Now Mariners fans can take those pillows and cry themselves to sleep after another playoff-less season.