Wins in Singapore and Russia have seen Lewis Hamilton skip further ahead of Sebastian Vettel in the drivers’ championship as Formula One arrives at Suzuka for the Japanese Grand Prix.
Focus on… Mercedes continuing to play team orders
It may seem rather unfair but what Mercedes did during last weekend’s Russian Grand Prix was absolutely correct.
Valtteri Bottas, who had started from pole position, was the effective leader at the midpoint of the race but when teammate Lewis Hamilton in P2 began to come under pressure from title-rival Sebastian Vettel, the team ordered its drivers to switch position.
Hamilton went on to claim his eighth win of the season and extend his championship lead over Vettel to 50 points while Bottas disappointingly finished second. It was a huge shame for Bottas who was enjoying his best weekend in Formula One since the early rounds of the season and looking likely to break through for his first win of 2018.
You could argue that a 43 point lead in the drivers’ championship would have been sufficient for Hamilton but what if it turned out not to be when the chequered flag falls in Abu Dhabi? Mercedes, and Hamilton, had to take the additional seven points on offer in Sochi.
This weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix may be the fifth last race of the season but Vettel will still see a potential 125 championship points up for grabs as he looks to take the fight to Hamilton. So, if a similar situation presents itself in Suzuka, expect Mercedes to make the exact same call.
Bottas has been the ideal teammate this year and should Hamilton wrap his crown up with a few races to spare, you can be sure he will do everything to get the Finn a victory.
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In need of a win? Sebastian Vettel
Six races ago Vettel was the red-hot favourite to claim a fifth world championship. His Ferrari appeared to be the quickest car on the grid and he was driving as well as ever.
But ever since he crashed out of the lead in Hockenheim, Vettel and Ferrari have been on a slide. What was once a nine point lead over Hamilton in the drivers’ championship has turned into a 50 point deficit.
It may appear to be all doom and gloom — and don’t get us wrong, it’s not a great spot to be in — but as already mentioned he should be focusing on the 125 championship points still to play for in the final five races of the season. There’s reason for the German and his fans to stay somewhat optimistic as it only takes one retirement for Hamilton for him to be back in contention.
Vettel comes to Suzuka, a circuit he has won at on four occasions, and must get the job done a fifth time. If he doesn’t, then we may as well put a line through him and hand Hamilton the title.
In need of points? Nico Hulkenberg
It’s been a tough five race stretch for Nico Hulkenberg.
The Renault driver has only managed to score one solitary world championship point since July’s German Grand Prix, a stark contrast to the five races before that event where he had tallied 26 points.
Nevertheless, Hulkenberg sits eighth in what is a tight drivers’ championship down the order. Kevin Magnussen (53), Hulkenberg (53), Fernando Alonso (50), Sergio Perez (47) and Esteban Ocon (47) are all still in contention for ‘best of the rest’ honours behind the Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull drivers
Hulkenberg has never finished as high as seventh in the standings over the course of a season and will need to get back to his early season form quickly if he’s a chance of achieving it this year. The good news for Hulkenberg is that he has had some strong races in Japan — most notably 2013 and 2015 where on both occasions he finished P6.
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Tyre talk
Available compounds: Medium, Soft, Super-soft
Pirelli’s pointers:
- The rhythm of the circuit, with its famous fast corners, means that Suzuka is all about lateral forces as opposed to traction and braking.
- Wear and degradation is traditionally high. Some of the biggest energy loads of the year are put through the tyres.
- Teams tend to run high downforce, pushing down on the tyres in order to maximise grip. This means that the tyres are subjected to multi-directional forces at the same time.
- Although the tyre selection is nominally the same as last year, in reality it’s a step softer as all the compounds are one step softer compared to their 2017 equivalents.
Minimum starting pressures: Front 23psi, rear 21psi
Weather forecast
The weather in Suzuka is often quite unpredictable at this time of year with frequent rain a very real possibility. In fact, rain is on the forecast for Friday and Saturday while it is set to clear for Sunday.
Despite the possibility of rain, temperatures will be a mild 24-26C throughout the race weekend.
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Betting
Hamilton is the short-priced favourite to win in Japan. He is paying 4/5 while a Vettel win is offering up odds of 2/1.
If you think Red Bull can win a fourth race of the season then there’s some pretty tantalising odds on their drivers. Max Verstappen is at 16/1 while Daniel Ricciardo is marginally back at 18/1.
Bookmakers also believe Hamilton has the world championship virtually won. You can only get 1/40 on him now while Vettel has slipped out to 12/1.
ESPN’s prediction
He’s now a long shot for world championship glory but Vettel likes the Suzuka circuit and has enjoyed some tremendous moments there over the years. Plus, it’s at point of win or go home.
Winner: Sebastian Vettel
Bonus prediction: Max Verstappen to finish P2