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Bob PockrassNASCAR
The extra laps at Talladega Superspeedway had huge playoff implications. Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski running out of gas have set up an elimination race where no winless driver is totally safe.
Now Harvick just needs a 26th-place finish Sunday at Kansas Speedway to make the third (semifinal) round. The four winless drivers lowest in points will be eliminated after Kansas.
Before those final laps at Talladega, Martin Truex Jr. was on the outside of the bubble looking in. Instead, he’s currently 18 points to the good on Keselowski for that final playoff spot.
Keselowksi has only three top-5s in 17 career starts at Kansas.
“It will be pretty tough,” Keselowski said. “We’ll see. It’s certainly not ideal, but it is what it is.”
Keselowski, Blaney, Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman are the four drivers currently on the outside looking in — and they all have a way to go to get there.
“Kansas is a good track for us,” Larson said. “We’ve challenged for wins there in the past and hopefully we can go there next week and be strong.”
Truex, who finished 23rd at Talladega, was about as thankful as anyone who finished 23rd in a race.
“I feel good about it,” Truex said. “That’s a place we can go to, even if we had to win, I’d feel pretty confident about it. I’m not saying we’re going to go there and win, but if there is anywhere we can have that kind of confidence, it’s probably one of those tracks.
“It’s racing. A lot can happen. As you’ve seen today, you never know.”
Here’s a look at how the clinching scenarios — all unofficial as NASCAR typically releases its scenarios later in the week — stack up. The key is a 56-point margin on the current eighth-place driver on the playoff grid, since the most points a driver who doesn’t win can earn in a race is 55 points (35 points for second plus 10 points for winning each stage).
Points: 3,128 — 63 ahead of ninth on the grid, 45 points ahead of eighth.
Clinches if finishes: Harvick can clinch with 11 points (26th-place finish at Kansas if no stage points). If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he is locked in.
Outlook: The winner at Kansas in May is in great shape.
Points: 3,111 — 46 ahead of ninth on the grid, 28 points ahead of eighth.
Clinches if finishes: Busch can clinch with 28 points (ninth-place finish at Kansas if no stage points). If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he needs only 10 points (27th if no stage points).
Outlook: He’s not in as good of shape as Harvick, but if he doesn’t have any issues, he’ll advance. Busch was 10th at Kansas in May.
Points: 3,104 — 39 ahead of ninth on the grid, 21 points ahead of eighth.
Clinches if finishes: Logano can clinch with 35 points (second-place finish at Kansas if no stage points). If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he needs only 17 points (20th if no stage points).
Outlook: Logano’s fifth-place finish at Talladega went a long way to him being in this position. He can be conservative at Kansas and have a good shot to advance. Logano was third at Kansas in May. And if memory serves correct, he has been aggressive at Kansas when he’s wanted to be in the past.
Points: 3,095 — 30 ahead of ninth on the grid, 12 points ahead of eighth.
Clinches if finishes: Busch can clinch with 44 points at Kansas, so going into the race, only a win guarantees him a spot in the next round regardless of the finishes of anyone else. If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he can clinch with 26 points (11th if no stage points).
Outlook: Busch was eighth in May at Kansas, and that should be enough to advance. Some stage points would be huge for his comfort zone.
Points: 3,086 — 21 ahead of eighth on the grid, 3 points ahead of eighth.
Clinches if finishes: Bowyer would need 53 points to advance, so that would mean probably winning a stage or two and then finishing in the top four. If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he needs 35 points to clinch (second if no stage points).
Outlook: Bowyer traditionally performs well at Kansas while under pressure. But a repeat of a 15th-place finish in May might not get it done.
Points: 3,083 — 18 ahead of ninth on the grid, 3 points behind seventh.
Clinches if finishes: Truex, as the current “bubble” driver on points as the last one ahead of the cutoff, must win to guarantee himself a spot to advance. If anyone but Keselowski, Blaney, Larson or Bowman wins, he needs 38 points to clinch.
Outlook: Truex swept the Kansas races in 2017 and was second in May. If he does what he’s capable of doing there, he’s fine. But one bad pit stop or miscue could end his back-to-back championship hopes.
Points: 3,065 — 18 points behind eighth on the grid, 21 points behind seventh.
Clinches if finishes: Keselowski must win to guarantee himself a spot.
Outlook: Kansas is not one of Keselowski’s best tracks. He was 14th in May. He’s in a world of hurt. Who would have thought he would be in this spot after his three-race win streak just a month ago?
Points: 3,061 — 22 points behind eighth on the grid, 25 points behind seventh.
Clinches if finishes: Blaney must win to guarantee himself a spot.
Outlook: Blaney, who was in an accident and finished 37th at Kansas in May, is going to need a lot of help if he doesn’t win, probably needing Truex or Bowyer to have a bad day. That’s a lot of need.
Points: 3,057 — 26 points behind eighth on the grid, 29 points behind seventh.
Clinches if finishes: Larson must win to guarantee himself a spot.
Outlook: No doubt Larson could earn his first win of the season at Kansas. He was fourth in May and led 101 laps. So don’t count him out. But don’t count him in, either.
Points: 3,015 — 68 points behind eighth on the grid, 71 points behind seventh.
Clinches if finishes: Bowman must win to guarantee himself a spot. And the only way he can get in is with a win — he can’t make it on points.
Outlook: The only thing going for Bowman is he can take all the chances in the world with no repercussions. He was 18th in May.