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Bob PockrassNASCAR
The 2018 NASCAR Cup Series championship quartet is one of experience. All four drivers who will vie for the title this Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway will race in familiar territory.
All of them have raced at Homestead with a chance to win the title in at least two previous years.
Three have won championships in this format — Kevin Harvick (2014), Kyle Busch (2015) and Martin Truex Jr. (2017) — while Joey Logano has made it to the finals twice but was denied.
“Three of us have won in the format [and] all four of us have lost in the format,” Busch said. “That’s pretty interesting, the way that kind of is. I would say the three guys that have won, [their experience] lends to them more than the guy that hasn’t been able to capitalize in that format.”
But experience can mean only so much.
“It just goes back to you’ve got to have a lot of things go your way, and there’s ways in these races that things don’t always go your way and you’ve got to be able to rebound from those in those instances that you can when possible,” Busch said.
Here’s a look at the four championship contenders:
Joey Logano
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Crew chief: Todd Gordon
Third-round finish: 4th
Championship seed: 1st
2018 wins: 2
Homestead championship appearances (since 2014 format): 2014-16th, 2016-4th
Why he will advance: Before his crash at Phoenix, he was on a stretch of finishes of third, fifth, eighth, first and third. He oozes confidence, having led 100 laps at Kansas and 54 laps at Texas in the past two intermediate-track races.
Why he won’t: He has won two races this year. One at a restrictor-plate track and one at a short track. See what’s missing? An intermediate track. Yes, he has shown improved speed on those tracks in recent weeks, but it won’t be enough.
Logano says: “There’s really nothing to get depressed about [following a crash at Phoenix]. We’re just staying confident and keeping our heads high because I still feel like we’ve got a great shot at winning this championship when we get to Miami. This doesn’t affect anything.”
Kyle Busch
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota
Crew chief: Adam Stevens
Third-round finish: 1st
Championship seed: 2nd
2018 wins: 8
Homestead championship appearances (since 2014 format): 2015-1st, 2016-6th, 2017-2nd
Why he will advance: Busch has not had to sweat through the playoffs and should be mentally ready for Homestead. He learned a lesson last year after getting held up by Logano for too many laps near the end that he might have to force the issue more than he’d want.
Why he won’t: Busch and his team have performed somewhat inconsistently in the playoffs. He has won two poles in the playoffs but has just one other top-5 starting spot in the playoffs. There’s no guarantee he is going to be fast.
Busch says: “It’s just a matter of being able to go out there and race your race and do what you can with what you’ve got and have an opportunity to be able to be leading the race essentially on that last lap. That’s what approximate it boils down to. Anything can happen in between, and we’ve seen it the last few years kind of how crazy things can get.”
Martin Truex Jr.
Team: Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota
Crew chief: Cole Pearn
Third-round finish: 2nd
Championship seed: 3rd
2018 wins: 4
Homestead championship appearances (since 2014 format): 2015-12th, 2017-1st
Why he will advance: He is the defending champ and this team is shutting down after this Sunday. Does anyone believe in fairy tales?
Why he won’t: In the four races prior to last year, he had led just three laps at Homestead. He hasn’t won a race since July in Kentucky. That’s a long drought to overcome at Homestead.
Truex says: “All we can do is prepare the best we can and do the same thing that we’ve done down there before and just try our best. That’s all you can do at the end of the day. We’ve got a great team. It’s been an amazing, amazing ride together, and hopefully we can get down there next week and make our owners proud and just live up to our potential.”
Kevin Harvick
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford
Crew chief: Tony Gibson (interim)
Third-round finish: 2nd
Championship seed: 4th
2018 wins: 8
Homestead championship appearances (since 2014 format): 2014-1st, 2015-2nd, 2017-4th
Why he will advance: Have you been watching any of the races this year? He has been consistently the fastest car and his 1,932 laps led is 484 more than any other driver this year. He’s the one to beat, even with an interim crew chief after the Texas spoiler penalty, as long as there are no major issues.
Why he won’t: If the team does have trouble, not having the comfort of his regular crew chief could be just enough to make an impact. Plus don’t expect him to get too many breaks from other drivers and teams after that illegal Texas spoiler fiasco.
Harvick says: “We have a chance every time we show up. Our guys are doing a great job obviously. To accomplish everything we did [at Phoenix] was quite the feat without your crew chief and car chief. … Everybody kept their head about them.”