Breaking down the Homestead starting lineup

HOMESTEAD, Fla. — The NASCAR Cup Series championship-eligible drivers consists of two who have had championship-worthy years, one who has had a championship-caliber year and one who has had a year good enough to get to the championship round.

So that gives them different perspectives as either (or both) Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch will have a year where they win eight races and not win a championship, Martin Truex Jr. has four wins and faces the prospect of his team folding after Sunday, and upstart Joey Logano, who went from not making the playoffs in 2017 to a two-win 2018 and with a shot at the title.

Here’s what they say:

Harvick with eight wins, 22 top-5s and 28 top-10s: “With everything that’s happened this year, you want to win the championship because obviously you think it would be icing on the cake with everything that you’ve accomplished. But it’s just not that easy. … This is a very unique place that isn’t like any other place that we race from a mile-and-a-half standpoint. It’s always warm. It’s always worn out. It always goes from day to night. The conditions change a lot. There’s so many different things here that it’s really hard to put everything together to the point of making your day perfect, because it’s just not going to be perfect.”

Busch with eight wins, 21 top-5s and 27 top-10s: “Harvick’s done a phenomenal job. Those guys and that group have been so good all season long, even in the late stages of last year. You lose it to him, and it’s like, ‘Yeah, OK, I can see why they got it.’ In all honesty, I feel like we’ve been right there toe to toe with them. … [Logano] has been consistent. He’s been good. He hasn’t necessarily performed to the level of the Big 3, and that’s no shake on them at all. It’s just the fact of the matter. So if he wins the title over the rest of us, then that would certainly be a little bit more disappointing.”

Truex with four wins, 19 top-5s and 20 top-10s: “I haven’t thought about not winning it, but I haven’t really thought about winning it that much either. … I haven’t thought about it either way other than with the situation and the team going away. I know no matter what happens, we’re going to give it our all, and we’re going to celebrate Sunday night as a group just because of the last five years have been an unbelievable ride. It’s been, as far as racing goes, by far the time of my life. I’ve realized dreams I’ve had since I was a kid because of this group and this team and what we’ve done. So I guess I would probably be more OK [losing it] than I would have been last year, but I think no matter what we’re going to celebrate and have a good time with it. Hopefully, it’s up on stage with a big trophy.”

Logano with two wins, 12 top-5s and 25 top-10s: “It happens in all sports. You’ve got to be able to race for wins when it’s most important. … Where we were last year was hard. It’s really hard. It stinks, it’s tough. But the fact that we’ve been able to stay together, keep working through it, finding something here, finding something there, go back on something, changing it, maybe going down a different road from things we’ve done in the past, being able to see us get better, awesome. It’s great. It’s hard. Doesn’t happen like a light switch. You go down really quick. It’s really hard to climb your way back up.”

Of the four championship drivers, their average finish at Homestead: Harvick (6.8), Truex (11.5), Logano (14.9) and Busch (18.5). Busch, Harvick and Truex each have one win at Homestead.

Here is the lineup breakdown for the Ford EcoBoost 400:

1. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota): Hamlin, who doesn’t have a Cup win this year, will try to continue a streak of having a Cup win every year by winning at Homestead. He has wins here in 2009 and 2013. He has five consecutive top-10 finishes at the track. Hamlin is 11th in the standings and will finish somewhere between eighth and 16th. This will be the last race for him and Mike Wheeler as Hamlin faces his first full season without a win. Leavine Family Racing has declined to comment in recent weeks on whether Wheeler will be crew chief for Matt DiBenedetto next year.

2. Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota): One of the four championship contenders, Busch won the title with a victory at Homestead in 2015. He has five top-seven finishes in his past six starts at the track. He also owns two Xfinity wins and two truck wins at Homestead.

3. Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota): One of the four championship contenders, Truex won this race last year to capture his first career Cup title. He did not have a top-10 finish at the track the three previous years but had seven top-10s in the nine races before that slump.

4. Brad Keselowski (Team Penske No. 2 Ford): Keselowski has two Xfinity wins at Homestead but has none in Cup. He has four top-seven finishes in his past five Cup starts there. Keselowski, eighth in the standings, will finish between fifth and 11th.

5. Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford): One of the four championship contenders, Logano is the only one who has not won a Cup title. But he has run strong at Homestead in the past, including leading 72 laps on his way to a fourth-place finish in 2015. He has four top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the track.

6. Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Ford): The winner of the 2002 race at Homestead, Busch has four top-10 finishes in his past eight Homestead starts. Busch is expected to leave SHR for Chip Ganassi Racing next year. He is sixth in the standings and will finish between fifth and ninth.

7. Erik Jones (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota): Jones was 21st in his sole Cup race at Homestead (2017). Jones is 15th in the standings and will finishes somewhere between ninth and 16th.

8. Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet): Newman has four top-10 finishes in his past eight Homestead starts. Newman, who is leaving RCR after this season to drive the Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 car, will finish 17th in the standings as the top driver who failed to make the playoffs.

9. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush Fenway Racing No. 17 Ford): Stenhouse isn’t a big fan of Homestead, at least from his finishes — last year’s 15th-place finish was his first career top-20 at the track. Stenhouse is 18th in the standings. He can’t get any higher in the standings but could fall as low as 21st.

10. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford): Almirola has not had a top-10 finish at Homestead since a seventh in 2012. He is seventh in the standings and will finish anywhere from fifth to ninth.

11. Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet): Larson has led 277 laps in the past two Homestead races, where he has finished second and third. Larson is 10th in the standings and will finish somewhere between eighth and 16th.

12. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford): Harvick, one of the four championship contenders, won the 2014 title with the victory at Homestead. He has led 179 laps in the past four races at Homestead, where he has finishes of first, second, third and fourth. He has 10 consecutive top-10 finishes at Homestead.

13. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet): Bowman was 16th in the 2016 race driving for Hendrick. Bowman is 16th in the standings and can’t drop any lower. He could finish as high as 11th.

14. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet): Elliott is fifth in points, the highest of all the non-championship drivers. He could fall as low as ninth depending on his performance Sunday. But don’t expect that to happen — he has finishes of 11th and fifth in his two Cup starts at the track.

15. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske No. 12 Ford): Homestead hasn’t been the greatest track for Blaney, whose best Cup finish was 17th in 2015. Blaney is ninth in the standings. He will finish somewhere between fifth and 13th.

16. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet): Dillon seeks his first top-10 finish at Homestead in his fifth Cup start there. Dillon, 13th in the standings, will finish between 10th and 16th in the standings.

17. Matt Kenseth (Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford): This is expected to be Kenseth’s final race although he has left the door open a crack in case he changes his mind and wants to race again. He has one career win at Homestead (2007) and has five consecutive top-10 finishes there. He is 32nd in the standings running a part-time schedule, and will finish either 31st or 32nd.

18. Daniel Suarez (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota): The winner of the 2016 Xfinity race at Homestead that propelled him to the championship, Suarez was 34th (a DNF) in his Cup race there in 2017. Suarez, who will be replaced at JGR by Martin Truex Jr. next year, is still negotiating with Stewart-Haas Racing to take over the Kurt Busch ride after this season, is 20th in the standings. He could finish as high as 18th and as low as 21st.

19. Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet): Johnson won the 2016 race at Homestead, traditionally not one of his best tracks. But he has 11 top-10 finishes in his past 17 starts. This will be the last race for Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus as Knaus will crew chief for William Byron next year and Kevin Meendering will move from JR Motorsports to the 48 box. Johnson is 14th in the standings and can finish as high as ninth and as low as 16th.

20. AJ Allmendinger (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet): Allmendinger has three top-10 finishes at Homestead, including an eighth in 2016. Allmendinger, being replaced at JTG by Ryan Preece next year, is 22nd in the standings. He can’t reach 21st and can only drop as low as 24th.

21. Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet): McMurray’s past four finishes at Homestead: fifth, 13th, fifth, 13th. So maybe he will finish fifth or 13th. McMurray, 21st in the standings, will finish between 18th and 21st. McMurray has been offered a ride in the Daytona 500 by Chip Ganassi, but he hasn’t said if he will take the offer. He is expected to be replaced by Kurt Busch next season.

22. Paul Menard (Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford): Menard has one career top-10 finish (fourth in 2014) at Homestead. Menard is 19th in the standings (tied with Stenhouse for 18th). He can’t finish any higher than 18th and won’t be any worse than 21st.

23. Bubba Wallace (Richard Petty Motorsports No. 43 Chevrolet): Wallace won the 2014 truck race at Homestead, a track he hasn’t raced at since an 11th-place Xfinity finish two years ago. Wallace is 28th in the standings. He can’t drop any spots but could gain as many as three Sunday.

24. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford): McDowell hasn’t had much success at Homestead but was 10th in the 2016 race. He is 26th in the standings and will finish somewhere from 25th-28th in the standings. He is expected to return to Front Row next year but the team typically doesn’t make its decisions until the offseason.

25. David Ragan (Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford): Ragan’s 17th-place finish at Homestead in 2017 was his best since a 10th-place finish in 2007. He is 25th in the standings. He can’t move up in the standings but could finish as low as 28th. Front Row Motorsports hasn’t announced its plans for next season although it would be a mild surprise if Ragan doesn’t return.

26. Clint Bowyer (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford): Bowyer had six top-10 finishes in his first nine Cup starts at Homestead but hasn’t had a top-10 finish in his past three visits. Bowyer is 12th in the standings and will finish between ninth and 16th.

27. Chris Buescher (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 37 Chevrolet): Buescher has a 24th and a 20th in his two Cup starts at Homestead. Buescher, who won the 2015 title with an 11th-place finish at Homestead, is 24th in the standings and will finish between 22nd and 24th.

28. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet): Byron finished third in the Xfinity race at Homestead to win the series title and won the truck race in 2016 after being eliminated at Phoenix. Byron, the 2018 Cup rookie of the year, is 23rd in the standings. He can finish as high as 22nd and as low as 25th.

29. Matt DiBenedetto (Go Fas Racing No. 32 Ford): DiBenedetto has a best of 27th in his three Homestead starts. DiBenedetto, who will drive for Leavine Family Racing next season, is 30th in the standings. He most likely will finish 29th (Kasey Kahne is one point ahead of him in 29th) and cannot drop to 31st.

30. Regan Smith (Leavine Family Racing No. 95 Chevrolet): Smith seeks his first top-10 at Homestead in his seventh start. Smith, in his fill-in role for Kasey Kahne, is 33rd in the standings. He will finish 33rd or 34th. This car will be driven by Matt DiBenedetto next season.

31. Ty Dillon (Germain Racing No. 13 Chevrolet): Dillon has three Cup starts at Homestead with a best of 23rd. Dillon is 27th in the standings. He will finish between 25th and 28th.

32. Landon Cassill (StarCom Racing No. 00 Chevrolet): Cassill doesn’t have a top-20 finish at Homestead. Cassill doesn’t earn points in Cup. This team has not announced plans for 2019. The charter it has is from RCR, and it could try to purchase it.

33. J.J. Yeley (BK Racing No. 23 Ford): Yeley doesn’t earn points in the series. This team is now owned by Front Row Motorsports and the organization is still deciding whether to run a third car or to try to sell or lease this charter. Yeley will look for his career-best finish — he has no finish better than 30th at the track, where he has not competed in a Cup race since 2015.

34. Corey LaJoie (TriStar Motorsports No. 72 Chevrolet): LaJoie, who has run a partial schedule, is 34th in the standings. He could finish as high as 33rd. He was 31st in this race last year.

35. Kyle Weatherman (StarCom Racing No. 99 Chevrolet): Weatherman has one career start in any national series race at Homestead, a 23rd in the 2015 truck race. He is 38th in the Cup standings (this will be his seventh start this year) and that is where he will finish.

36. B.J. McLeod (Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Ford): McLeod doesn’t earn points in the Cup Series. This is his first Cup race since Kansas last month.

37. Tanner Berryhill (Obaika Racing No. 97 Toyota): This is Berryhill’s second start of the season.

38. Timmy Hill (Motorsports Business Management No. 66 Toyota): Hill doesn’t earn points in the Cup Series. He was 21st in the 2011 Cup race at Homestead, his best finish in four career Cup starts there.

39. Ross Chastain (Premium Motorsports No. 15 Chevrolet): Chastain has never competed in a Cup race at Homestead. Chastain does not earn points in the series. He is expected to return to this ride next year, but his primarily job will be to race in the Xfinity Series for Chip Ganassi Racing.