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ESPN staff
Can UCF make the College Football Playoff? Let’s be honest: probably not. But fear not, Knights fans. As Josh Heupel’s crew charges toward a second consecutive perfect season, we break down the chaos scenarios that would give UCF a chance, along with reasons for optimism and a dose of reality from our friends with the Playoff Predictor.
And in case you’re wondering what Vegas oddsmakers think, they’re not believers, either. According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, every other playoff contender would be favored over the Knights, from Alabama (-27.5) to Washington State (-5.5). Ohio State, which fell behind UCF this week, would be a 13.5-point favorite. And current No. 4 Michigan would be an 18.5-point favorite.
But then again, Auburn was a 9.5-point favorite in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, and the Knights won that one 34-27.
A rooting guide for UCF fans
No. 9 UCF made history on Tuesday when it became the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in the era of the playoff — but the news was tempered by the reality that it’s still not ranked high enough to garner serious playoff consideration.
It’s not impossible — just improbable.
Considering there are three Power 5 undefeated teams still ranked ahead of UCF, along with four one-loss teams and even two-loss LSU, the Knights are looking for a mountain of chaos in the next two weeks — all while remaining undefeated.
First, they need LSU to lose at Texas A&M. Then, they need Notre Dame to get shocked by a USC team that just lost to 2-8 UCLA and may be on the verge of firing coach Clay Helton. (And even if that happens, there’s no guarantee UCF gets in over a one-loss Notre Dame.)
Then the Knights need to root for a two-loss Big 12 champ, which means rooting for West Virginia to knock off Oklahoma tonight, or have Texas take down the Sooners in the Big 12 title game.
Time to pile on: Northwestern wins the Big Ten over Michigan or Ohio State (um, yes, undefeated UCF should get the nod over a four-loss Northwestern team that lost to Akron). And if Washington takes down Washington State tonight, the Pac-12 would be guaranteed a three-loss champion.
So there you have it: A recipe for UCF chaos that includes a three-loss Pac-12 champ, a two-loss Big 12 champ, a four-loss Big Ten champ, a one-loss Notre Dame and an irrelevant LSU. Then Alabama blows out Georgia and joins ACC champ Clemson as two no-brainers.
And in that scenario?
A one-loss Notre Dame is in and … probably UCF, too. — Heather Dinich
The case for optimism
It might not feel like it to UCF fans, but the Knights are in better position this season than last, when they were also 10-0 headed into their rivalry game against USF. Last year, UCF was ranked No. 15 in Week 13, behind seven two-loss teams and one three-loss team. This year, UCF sits at No. 9, the highest a Group of 5 team has ever been ranked in the CFP. Not only that, the Knights jumped Ohio State, the first time since 2015 that a Group of 5 team jumped a Power 5 team when both won that week.
What helped UCF jump two spots in the latest rankings was its dominant 38-13 win over then-No. 24 Cincinnati. With College GameDay in town and a prime-time television time slot, UCF put forth the type of performance it absolutely had to have to change more hearts and minds. Its defense, the subject of criticism throughout the season, had a dominant performance with seven tackles for loss, four sacks, three fumble recoveries and just one touchdown allowed.
It helps, too, that Pitt, which will play Clemson in the ACC championship game, is now ranked No. 24. UCF fans will happily point out that the Knights trounced the Panthers 45-14, while No. 3 Notre Dame struggled to a 19-14 home win over the same Pitt squad.
UCF has won 23 straight games, so there clearly has been a cumulative effect in the way this program is viewed. Athletic director Danny White’s decision to self-declare a national championship after UCF finished 2017 undefeated with a win over Auburn in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl was a bold one, but the strategy has paid off.
Rather than going quietly into the offseason, UCF has been the subject of constant debate over the past 12 months. Name recognition for the school itself has never been higher, and that obviously comes with risks. Everybody on campus understood the pressure would be on going into 2018, especially with a new head coach.
But UCF has answered every question and won all its games, and that’s all anyone can ask the Knights to do at this point.
“We’re proud of what we’ve done throughout the course of the season,” coach Josh Heupel said. “We played an ACC team that clinched their division. Everyone thinks that’s one of the top leagues in America. I think that speaks to our conference, and it speaks to our football team, too.”
It still remains a huge long shot for UCF to break into the top four, especially with a strength of schedule mired in the 100s and no more games left against ranked opponents, but the Knights have made headway in both perception and rankings. — Andrea Adelson
The Playoff Predictor’s reality check
The Playoff Predictor lives in a universe without politics.
It’s a place where Thanksgiving is a little more peaceful and UCF is not and has never been a College Football Playoff candidate.
In our 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, there are exactly zero in which the Playoff Predictor would enter Selection Day with a belief that the Knights are one of the four most likely teams to get in (though it does give UCF a 0.7 percent chance to reach the playoff because in some simulations the committee selects the Knights even if it was unlikely for them to get in).
That does not mean it is literally impossible for UCF to reach the playoff in real life. Because in real life, the political landscape of college football does exist. Will committee members truly ignore last year? Will they worry about the message it sends if they put a nonchampion with multiple losses in over UCF? Do they feel like an undefeated team ought to be given a chance to prove itself?
Playoff Predictor is naive to those concerns. It predicts the committee’s behavior based on what it says it considers and what it has considered in the past — a balance of best and most deserving. The problem for UCF is that there is no series of remaining results that would make the Knights either.
The best rank UCF can achieve in strength of record is No. 5, a function of the fact that the Knights project to rank 105th in strength of schedule at the end of the regular season. That alone isn’t a death knell to the school’s playoff hopes. But UCF would need a strong team quality — or eye test — to put it over the top, if the committee is operating as it has in the past. But UCF, the 26th-best team in the country, per FPI, does not have that “best” factor to make up for its weaker schedule. Even in this week’s popular long-shot scenario — in which Alabama wins the SEC, Washington wins the Apple Cup, Northwestern wins the Big Ten and Texas wins the Big 12 — that pits UCF against two-loss nonchampions like Georgia and LSU or three-loss conference champions, UCF falls short according to our metrics. — Seth Walder