Despite some last-minute maneuvering, the UFC still has high hopes for its year-end offering, a card featuring two title fights.
In the main event of UFC 232, former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones returns against old rival Alexander Gustafsson in a bout for the vacant title. In the co-main event, bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes moves up in weight to face featherweight champion Cris Cyborg.
Both fights feature interesting stylistic contrasts evident across a variety of statistical categories. Here’s an analysis of what could turn out to be the determining factors on Saturday night.
Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson
Striking differential
In their first fight, Gustafsson had success with his striking and nearly had the edge on the scorecards. However, he was not able to out-land Jones in any single round. For the fight, Jones landed 134 significant strikes to Gustafsson’s 110.
Being able to land strikes without absorbing punishment has been one of the key elements of Jones’ success. In his 18-fight UFC career, he has out-landed every single one of his opponents, and he has a +2.28 striking differential per minute. His striking differential, significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute, ranks fifth-best among ranked light heavyweights.
On the other hand, Gustafsson’s striking differential stands at +0.78, which is 10th among the same group. In the first fight, Gustafsson had to work extremely hard to land strikes, and in the process, he had to absorb a lot of strikes from Jones. If the former champion is able to knock off the ring rust, expect the same thing to play out in this fight.
Striking defense
In terms of significant strikes landed per minute, Jones lands 4.41. While that is a respectable rate, it is only slightly above average for ranked light heavyweights (4.19). Where he really sets himself apart from his opponents is with his ability to avoid punishment. For his UFC career, his opponents have landed only 2.12 significant strikes per minute against him, and he has managed to avoid 65 percent of their significant strike attempts. Jones ranks first among ranked light heavyweights in both metrics.
Gustafsson is not nearly as gifted when it comes to striking defense, as he allows his opponents to land 3.40 significant strikes per minute, at a 48 percent clip. However, the 110 significant strikes Gustafsson landed in the first encounter with Jones equate to 4.40 significant strikes per minute, which is the second-best rate ever registered against Jones in his UFC career.
Landing strikes against Jones is not an easy task, but Gustafsson has already shown he is up to the challenge. The downside is that he will likely need to improve on that rate to sway the judges or earn a stoppage.
Takedowns
Jones has landed 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, at a .505 rate, during his UFC career. However, he struggled with his wrestling against Gustafsson back at UFC 165. In that fight, Jones attempted 11 takedowns and managed to land only one. He has failed on only 36 takedown attempts in his career, and 10 of those blown attempts came in that one fight. On top of that, Gustafsson managed to land one of only two takedowns given up by Jones in his UFC career.
In his past two fights, Gustafsson has landed five takedowns and 46 significant ground strikes, but it seems unlikely that he will be able to implement that kind of strategy against Jones, since Jones has stopped 95 percent of his opponents’ takedown attempts. It is much more likely that Gustafsson will try to use his wrestling in reverse. He has stopped 85 percent of the attempts against him and, as previously stated, had success against Jones in their first fight.
In order to pull the upset here, Gustafsson will need to once again force this into being a standing fight and then break through with his striking.
Cris Cyborg vs. Amanda Nunes
Striking differential
As impressive as Cyborg has been in the cage, she may appear even more dominant when it comes to stats. Her striking differential stands at +5.23, which is the highest among all ranked female fighters. In fact, she is the only fighter with a differential greater than five, and her measure is more than eight times the average for ranked female fighters (0.62). Cyborg’s numbers include her fights in Strikeforce and Elite XC. However, her striking differential since coming to the UFC in 2016 is +4.89, which is still well ahead of the pack.
Some fighters with strong striking differentials stand out due to their ability to excel at one of the two elements, landing significant strikes or avoiding significant strikes from their opponents. Cyborg is truly an outlier in that she dominates both statistical categories. She lands 7.02 significant strikes per minute, which is best among ranked female fighters, and absorbs only 1.79 significant strikes per minute, which is fourth-best among the same group.
Nunes’ striking differential comes in at +1.67. Despite being significantly behind Cyborg, it is still good enough for ninth-best among ranked female fighters and second behind only Aspen Ladd (2.37) among ranked female bantamweights. Nunes has found success in the UFC by standing and trading with her opponents. However, that does not seem like it would be a wise decision against Cyborg. The featherweight champion has been able to impose her will and her striking against any challenger up until this point. It is hard to see Nunes preventing that from playing out again.
Knockdowns
Another defining characteristic of Cyborg’s striking game is her power. During her UFC/Strikeforce/Elite XC career, she has landed 1.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Nunes also has the reputation of being a power striker, but her rate is only 0.45 per 15 minutes. On top of that, the bantamweight champion will be moving up to featherweight for this fight. Statistically, she appears to already be at a power disadvantage, and that disadvantage may be exacerbated due to the size difference between the fighters.
If Cyborg is given time, space and opportunity to land power strikes, this will likely be a short night for Nunes. In order to pull the upset, Nunes will need to implement a game plan that allows her to avoid power strikes.
Takedowns/grappling
One area where Nunes seems to have a clear advantage is in the grappling game. During her UFC career, Nunes has landed 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. She has managed only two submission victories, but she has averaged 1.17 passes per takedown and controlled position on the top when she needed to win rounds.
While Nunes seems to have the advantage in the grappling department, getting Cyborg on the floor might prove to be a tough task. The featherweight champion has been taken down only twice and has successfully stopped 91 percent of the takedown attempts she has faced. If Nunes struggles in the standing exchanges, she may be forced to test Cyborg’s takedown defense. In the end, her ability to earn the top position may turn out to be a determining factor in the fight.