If you’re still here, congratulations! The final six days of the NHL regular season approach and there are still edges to be found and advantages to be gained. But, things will get tricky. As teams begin to clinch their playoff position, we are going to get some “NFL Week 17 style” rest days.
Luckily, most positions have remained somewhat competitive during the past couple of weeks, and even the teams that are locked into place still have something to push for — I’m looking at you Tampa Bay Lightning, as you pursue the NHL’s all-time win record of 62 games.
Let’s touch on some of those kinds of scenarios here, so you are aware:
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If the Boston Bruins beat both the Florida Panthers and Detroit Red Wings this weekend (a likely scenario) and the Toronto Maple Leafs down the Ottawa Senators on Saturday (also well within the realm of likelihood), then both teams will be locked into their playoff seeding. The Bruins play the Columbus Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild and Lightning next week. The Blue Jackets game will have wild-card consequences, but it’s possible the game with Minnesota will be inconsequential. The Lightning game won’t matter at all if Tampa Bay already has 63 wins by then. Meanwhile, Toronto could see three of their four games have impacts on playoff races, with the notable exception being a contest against the Lightning. So, the top three teams in the Atlantic Division could all be taking it easy during those late-season games against the Lightning. The saving grace could be that the Bruins and Maple Leafs don’t want to “appear weak” against the Lightning heading into the postseason, so they may show up with all their troops. However, the teams could just as easily convince themselves that they are better served by not tipping their hand to the team they would meet in the second round after they battle each other. The bottom line here is to pay close attention to the lineups for these three teams beginning on Thursday.
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A little further down the Atlantic and in the mix for the wild card, the Montreal Canadiens have a brutal schedule on tap with the Lightning, Washington Capitals and Maple Leafs. Those are three dangerous offenses — and the first two will still definitely be going at full steam (the Capitals for seeding and the Lightning for the wins record).
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The Metropolitan Division is all stacked quite closely in the standings with the wild-card teams still in striking distance of the three division leaders. With Montreal also being in the mix for the wild card, these teams should all keep each other honest until the final whistle.
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In the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames could have the top seed locked up by the end of the weekend if they come away with wins against both the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks. If so, all three of their games next week are against non-playoff teams and could have zero consequences. Playing in the favor of fantasy managers, however, is the fact that the Flames have been trying to get their first line humming again before the postseason. They even switched up their lines with Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan all skating on separate lines this week. It’s possible the Flames only take one “rest game” next week and try to use the rest to kick the offense into high gear for the playoffs.
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It’s also possible that the games next week for the Sharks and Vegas Golden Knights become inconsequential by mid-week. The Sharks are close to a point where they can’t catch the Flames and can’t be caught by the Golden Knights, while Vegas is slipping to a point where they can’t catch the Sharks and can’t be caught by the Arizona Coyotes. The Golden Knights play three non-playoff teams, while the Sharks only playoff-bound opponent is possibly the Colorado Avalanche on the final day of the season. The Sharks are already resting Erik Karlsson and taking Joe Pavelski‘s return slow, while the Golden Knights aren’t rushing back an injured Marc-Andre Fleury. These seeding scenarios won’t help any of them get back on the ice sooner.
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The Central Division is being kept a little more honest, as even the wild-card Dallas Stars still have a path to the division title — though Ben Bishop‘s injury doesn’t help. The St. Louis Blues truly have a shot at the title, as they sit just two points back of the Nashville Predators and four points back of the Winnipeg Jets — with a game in hand on both. An interesting note: The Jets are on the road for four games against the four teams that still are looking for the second wild-card spot in the West.
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While most of the non-playoff bound teams are guaranteed at least some games with playoff implications, it’s possible that the Los Angeles Kings and Ducks don’t play a single game of consequence next week.
Fantasy Forecaster: April 1-7
Highlights from teams playing four games: We still have 10 teams playing four games, despite the short week. Of course, all of them have a back-to-back set because Sunday isn’t in play, but the Kings will play two back-to-back sets. That’s interesting for fantasy because it means two starts from Jack Campbell, who has proven to be a solid fantasy option when called upon. … Of the four-game teams, it’s possible Philipp Grubauer, Jordan Binnington and Corey Crawford get all four starts for their squads, despite the back-to-back sets. Every point could matter to the Avalanche, Blues and Chicago Blackhawks down the stretch. They are the No. 1, No. 4 and No. 6 fantasy goaltenders over the past two weeks, and available in 80 percent, 40 percent and 60 percent of ESPN leagues, respectively.
Teams playing two games: The Ducks are the only team with a short two-game schedule. It’s also likely the Flames have the top-seed locked down by the time the clubs meet on Wednesday, meaning both games for Anaheim will be of no consequence. While that means downplaying any usefulness of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Jakob Silfverberg and company, look at what youngsters like Sam Steel and Troy Terry have been doing lately. If you need a one-day stream on the two light days on the schedule, the Ducks play on Wednesday (three games total) and Friday (three games).
Highlights from teams playing three games: The Blue Jackets and Stars manage to have only three games and a back-to-back set on tap. It’s possible that both parts of those sets to end the season will still matter for both clubs, so Sergei Bobrovsky should be good to go for the whole week for the Blue Jackets. If Bishop’s injury turns out to be serious enough to keep him sidelined, Anton Khudobin could also be an interesting streaming option to play all three games for the Stars.
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: “O” (offense) and “D” (defense) matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup) and are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team’s season-to-date statistics, its performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played, and its opponents’ numbers in those categories. The “Ratings” column lists the cumulative rating from 1 to 10 of that week’s offensive (“O”) and defensive (“D”) matchups.
Quick hits
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The Avalanche continue to push for the playoffs without Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. Rantanen hasn’t practiced yet, but Landeskog was on the ice in a no-contact jersey. None of their remaining games are going to be easy, so the team needs both guys back. Landeskog has slipped to just over 80 percent rostership, so he may be worth stashing heading into next week if you see him available.
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There seems to be little incentive for the Pittsburgh Penguins to hurry back Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin. The Penguins play the Red Wings twice and the Rangers once to close the season. While the points are important, those are winnable games without their star defenseman and forward. Here’s betting we don’t see them at all or, at the very least, not until the final game.
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Want to surprise your fantasy opponents for the final week? See if your league is one of the 18 percent in which Dustin Byfuglien was dropped. “Big Buff” is eyeing a possible return by this weekend and the Jets play four games of consequence next week.
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While they aren’t mathematically playing out the string yet, it’s close and the Philadelphia Flyers have likely accepted their fate. Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick are both getting prominent lineup looks down the stretch and, while I want to recommend them for deeper leagues, I’m also cautious about the matchups with the Stars, Blues and Carolina Hurricanes.
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The New York Rangers are rewarding Brendan Lemieux with some extra responsibility to run out the season. The fourth-liner from the Jets is playing on the team’s top line and power play with Mika Zibanejad and has a nice PIM/points profile with the Rangers — six points and 33 PIM in 14 games.
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As mentioned above, the Flames lines are a hot mess. Gaudreau is with Derek Ryan and Michael Frolik; Monahan is with Austin Czarnik and James Neal; and Lindholm is with Mikael Backlund and Matthew Tkachuk. If these lines stick, I don’t want to rely on Gaudreau and Monahan down the stretch, but Backlund becomes a must-start.
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The Buffalo Sabres have been giving Victor Olofsson a look on the top line with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. It was Alexander Nylander before him, so the depth chart has been fickle. That said, Olofsson had 60 points in 64 games as a 23-year-old AHL rookie this season, so the scoring profile is there.