The knee-jerk reaction of many fans and pundits to the announcement of the lightweight contest between Justin Gaethje and Edson Barboza was to predict an all-action fight. A review of the stat sheet certainly backs up that assertion. Gaethje has quickly become one of the most intriguing statistical anomalies in the modern UFC, and Barboza often eschews defensive tactics in favor of offense. Despite those similarities, their statistics also point to some key differences, which could turn out to be the difference on Saturday night.
Striking differential
Since making his UFC debut in 2017, Gaethje has been a statistical outlier when it comes to striking. Among all ranked fighters across all weight classes, he currently ranks second in terms of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM), with 8.53, and dead last when it comes to significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), with 10.54. Despite being an offensive juggernaut, his notoriously subpar defense has really held him back. His 10.54 SApM rate is three times more than the average for a ranked fighter. This has left him with a striking differential — SLpM minus SApM — of -2.01, which is fourth-worst among the same group, and a 2-2 record.
The good news for Gaethje is that Barboza has his own defensive liabilities in the striking game. Those liabilities are not on the same scale as Gaethje’s, but he has allowed his opponents to land 4.14 significant strikes against him during his UFC career. He lands a respectable 3.99 per minute, which is slightly below average for a ranked lightweight (4.47). With a -0.15 striking differential, Barboza and Gaethje represent two of only four ranked lightweights who currently have negative differentials.
Unfortunately for Barboza, things do not seem to be trending in the right direction. In his past four fights, his SLpM rate has remained steady at 3.99, but his SApM has ballooned to 6.24, for a striking differential of -2.25. Prior to his victory over Dan Hooker last December, he had been outlanded 282 to 106 in terms of significant strikes in his previous three bouts.
Unless either fighter undergoes a drastic style change before Saturday, this fight will likely turn into a striking war of attrition. Both fighters will almost certainly land with volume, but the one who can make defensive adjustments or simply tolerate the damage will likely come out on top.
Striking accuracy
There are reasons to believe that an abrasive fight favors Gaethje. Not only has he consistently fought with this style for the majority of his career, but his advantage in terms of accuracy could swing the balance in his favor. In his UFC career, Gaethje has landed 54 percent of his significant strike attempts, compared to only 42 percent for Barboza. Even so, the former World Series of Fighting champion has the edge overall; his advantage really becomes clear when it comes to head strikes.
Like most fighters, Gaethje and Barboza see a plurality of their landed significant strikes impact their opponents’ heads. For Gaethje, 54 percent of his landed significant strikes have been head strikes, while 43 percent of Barboza’s have been the same. However, Gaethje is much more accurate when it comes to hitting this target. He has landed 42 percent of his significant head-strike attempts. On the other hand, Barboza has only a 28 percent head-strike accuracy rate.
In a fight with sparse striking defense, the ability to land head strikes will be essential. Even if Barboza is able to compete with Gaethje in terms of volume, he likely will struggle to consistently land his head-strike attempts. This has not been an issue for Gaethje so far in his UFC career, and he should once again show strong head-strike accuracy in the main event.
Leg strikes
Even though he has landed only 28 percent of his significant head-strike attempts in the UFC, Barboza has still managed to be a successful lightweight. One of the main factors behind his success is his leg striking. During his UFC career, he has landed 1.13 significant strikes against his opponents’ legs per minute. It is a strong part of his game and perhaps essential to his style. In his 14 victories, he has averaged 1.42 leg strikes per minute. In his six defeats, his leg striking rate is only 0.43. If he is unable to get his leg-striking offense on track early against Gaethje, he could struggle and find himself on the wrong side of the result.
Gaethje, however, has not absorbed many significant leg strikes. In his UFC career, he has absorbed only 0.58 significant leg strikes per minute, and only 5 percent of the significant strikes he has taken have come against his legs. A lot of that defensive success could be due to a lack of dedicated leg attacks from his opponents. In his four UFC fights, Gaethje has managed to avoid only 18 percent of his opponents’ attempted leg strikes.
Based on his track record, Barboza will need to get his leg striking going to have a shot in this fight. Gaethje has never really had to deal with a consistent leg assault. This could be due to the stylistic tendencies of his opponents, but it could also be a result of his hyper-offensive and pressure tactics. This is one unknown that could end up making a huge difference in who comes out on top.
Takedowns
Gaethje has attempted only one takedown in the UFC. He took a shot in the second round of his fight against Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218, and that has been the extent of his offensive wrestling in the promotion. Despite his apparent lack of interest in going for takedowns, Gaethje does come from a wrestling background, having competed collegiately at Northern Colorado. In 2010, he placed seventh at 157 pounds to become an All-American. At the time, he became the first All-American for the Bears in 40 years. It may be a smart move to revert to his roots here.
Barboza has strong takedown defense. In the UFC, he has forced his opponents to fail on 80 percent of their attempts, and he allows only 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. He relies heavily on this takedown defense, since he does not perform well when giving up a takedown. He has been taken down at least once in seven UFC fights. In those fights, he has gone 3-4.
Gaethje may have evolved past his wrestling base, but he might be able to swing the fight to his favor with a takedown. Barboza has absorbed 212 significant ground strikes and allows his opponent 1.47 passes per takedown.