Be wary of mammoth Alabama spreads: Week 5 trends to know

College football’s most tantalizingly tasty trends are back for Week 5. Our Top Trends Trio went 2-1 last weekend, but unfortunately a losing bonus bet on the Crimson Tide brought us to 2-2 overall and 5-5 on the season. A .500 mark isn’t optimal, but we’re feeling a 3-0 Top Trends Trio this week. Let’s see what we have in store.

So, we had a losing second-half wager going against Alabama last Saturday, but are we terrified of the Tide? Heck no! If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again! A full-game angle on Ole Miss is backed by trends and logic. Yes, the Rebels have gotten smoked in back-to-back games by Bama to the tune of a minus-118 scoring margin, but all signs point to an improved effort here, particularly on the defensive side of the ball under new defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre. May we remind you, Ole Miss is coming off a game it arguably should’ve won against a solid Cal team, and this is basically the same number Vegas put out when Alabama traveled to play Southern Miss just a week ago. Don’t overthink this. Take the points.

And while we’re going against the No. 2 team in the country, why not back the No. 1 team? Clemson has been lights out in the first half of games since 2015, including a 23-8-1 ATS mark in the first two quarters in road and neutral games. As for the Tar Heels, their performance in the first 30 minutes of play this season hasn’t been pretty. Ride Clemson first-half ATS.

This last angle is merely a footnote in our trends below, but don’t sleep on it. Appalachian State is coming off a 34-31 win over the same Tar Heels we’re fading first half this week. It was a game in which North Carolina actually outgained the Mountaineers 469-385. Given that, trends say go ape on App State. Also, consider this: The Mountaineers’ opponent, Coastal Carolina, is 3-1, but along with non-FBS Norfolk State, the Chanticleers have played three teams with an average ESPN FPI rank of 108. Yikes. And by the way, what in the world is a Chanticleer?

Is your hunger for trends not even close to satisfied? We already know. That’s why we invite you to feast on the rest of our betting nuggets to help you navigate the remainder of this week’s super saucy slate (all games on Saturday).

All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday night.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-27.5, 70.5), noon ET

• Historically, this is not a great spot for Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells. As an underdog, Wells has a career mark of 10-21 ATS. All of those games came during his tenure at Utah State, so perhaps a reversal of fortune is forthcoming. Also worth noting, Wells is 3-1 ATS in his career as an underdog of at least 20 points.

• Under is 3-0 in Texas Tech’s first three games under Wells. In fact, dating to last season with Utah State, the under has cashed in five straight with Wells roaming the sideline following a 9-1 over run.

• Over is 14-6 in the Sooners’ 20 games against Big 12 opponents under head coach Lincoln Riley, including 9-1 in their past 10.

Northwestern Wildcats at No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5, 47), noon ET

• The Badgers have not been very susceptible to a letdown under head coach Paul Chryst. In fact, Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS following a straight-up win versus a ranked opponent under Chryst. Recall, the Badgers smacked No. 11 Michigan 35-14 last week.

• Northwestern is 13-6-1 ATS in its past 19 games as an underdog since 2016, although the Wildcats are 0-2 this season when getting points.

• Northwestern is 0-3 ATS to start the season for the third time in 14 seasons under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. In each of the past two instances, the Wildcats covered the spread in their fourth game.

• The Wildcats are 10-0 ATS in their past 10 Big Ten games as a road underdog.

• Fun fact: Wisconsin is covering the spread by an average of 27.3 points per game this season. That’s the best mark among FBS teams in 2019 and sixth best through a team’s first three games in the past 40 years.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (-27.5, 49), noon ET

• Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its past seven games overall.

• Over is 22-11 in Michigan’s 33 games against Big Ten opponents under head coach Jim Harbaugh when the closing total is below 50 points, including 9-3 at home. (Source: www.BetLabsSports.com)

• Over is 5-0 in the past five meetings.

No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies (-23.5, 59.5) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks, noon ET

• Texas A&M is 13-5 ATS under head coach Jimbo Fisher, although the Aggies are 3-2 ATS under Fisher on the road.

• Arkansas head coach Chad Morris is 5-1 ATS in his career when facing AP-ranked opponents at home, including 2-0 ATS with the Razorbacks.

No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-27, 60) at North Carolina Tar Heels, 3:30 p.m. ET

• Clemson is 43-19-1 ATS in the first half since 2015, the best mark of any FBS team over that span. According to BetLabs, the Tigers have been even better in road and neutral games, covering 23 of 31. In addition, North Carolina has a minus-34 first-half scoring margin this season, tied for 14th worst among 130 FBS teams.

• Clemson is 9-2 ATS in 11 games against ACC opponents since the start of last season.

• Clemson is 8-1 ATS in nine games either at a neutral site or on the road dating to last season.

Ole Miss Rebels at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-38, 60), 3:30 p.m. ET

• As a full-game favorite of at least 30 points under head coach Nick Saban, Alabama is 9-19-1 ATS in the second half when leading by 14 or more points at halftime, including 6-14-1 ATS with a halftime lead of at least 21 points, per BetLabs.

• Alabama is 8-18 ATS in its past 26 games as a favorite of 35 points or more since 2011.

• Alabama is 20-8 ATS as a favorite of at least 21 points against SEC opponents under head coach Nick Saban, although just 2-4 ATS when favored by 30 or more.

• Ole Miss has allowed 94.8 rush yards per game this season, good for 25th-fewest among 130 FBS teams. Since 2015, teams allowing less than 100 rush yards per game are 20-8 ATS when getting 35 or more points against an AP top-10 opponent, per BetLabs.

• Ole Miss is 4-12 ATS since the start of last season.

No. 21 USC Trojans at No. 17 Washington Huskies (-10.5, 61.5), 3:30 p.m. ET

• Washington is 6-2 ATS as a favorite in ranked-against-ranked games under head coach Chris Petersen. In fact, since Petersen first became head coach at Boise State in 2006, he is tied with Jim Tressel for the best cover percentage in ranked-versus-ranked matchups among 23 head coaches with at least 20 games. Petersen is 16-8 ATS in those games.

• USC is 3-11 ATS as an underdog under head coach Clay Helton, including 1-8 ATS as a road ‘dog.

• USC is 9-20-1 ATS in 30 games since 2017.

• Home favorites are 7-3 ATS in ranked-against-ranked Pac-12 matchups since 2016.

Indiana Hoosiers at No. 25 Michigan State Spartans (-14, 44.5), 3:30 p.m. ET

• Michigan State is 2-8 ATS at home since the start of last season.

• Indiana is 5-13-1 ATS against Big Ten opponents under head coach Tom Allen, including 2-7 ATS on the road.

• The Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in their past seven visits to East Lansing.

• Under is 10-2 in Michigan State’s past 12 games overall.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 7 Auburn Tigers (-10.5, 46), 7 p.m. ET

• Is this a potential letdown spot for Auburn coming off a 28-20 victory at No. 17 Texas A&M? Say it ain’t so, Bo! Consider that since 2005, AP top-10 teams are 6-12 ATS when favored by 6-14 points following a road win of fewer than 14 points over a ranked opponent (including 1-8 ATS when favored by 10-14 points), per BetLabs.

• But fret not, Auburn fans. There is also a trend in favor of the Tigers. Consider this: Auburn took down A&M last week despite a margin of minus-92 yards from scrimmage. Since 2015, home teams laying double digits are 26-11 ATS following a SU win with a minus-75 or worse total yards differential. This also applies to Appalachian State (-15.5) over Coastal Carolina after the Mountaineers were outgained 469-385 in a 34-31 win at North Carolina last week.

• Under is 14-3 in Mississippi State’s past 17 games against SEC opponents since 2017.

UConn Huskies at No. 22 UCF Knights (-43.5, 65), 7 p.m. ET

• UCF is 12-4 ATS in 16 regular-season games under head coach Josh Heupel, including a 56-17 shellacking of UConn as 24-point favorites last season.

• UCF is 9-2 ATS under Heupel as double-digit chalk.

• UConn is 22-52-2 ATS since joining the AAC in 2013. That is the worst ATS record of any FBS team in that span and includes 3-11-1 ATS dating to last season.

• Since 2015, AP-ranked teams laying at least 30 points following a SU loss are 6-17 ATS. However, they are 2-0 this season.

• In the past five seasons, teams favored by 40 points or more are 11-20-1 ATS.

No. 24 Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-4, 60.5), 7 p.m. ET

• Kansas State is 11-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog since 2016 (1-0 this season under new head coach Chris Klieman).

• Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games overall.

• Over is 12-4 in Oklahoma State’s past 16 home games since 2017.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-17, 66.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers, 7:30 p.m. ET

• Ohio State has yet to lose a game under head coach Ryan Day (7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS).

• Ohio State’s plus-117 first-half scoring margin ranks first among FBS teams this season. In fact, in seven games under Day, the Buckeyes have outscored opponents 179-46 and gone 6-1 ATS in the first half, per BetLabs.

• Nebraska is 7-3 ATS versus Big Ten teams under head coach Scott Frost.

Washington State Cougars at No. 19 Utah Utes (-6, 56.5), 10 p.m. ET

• Utah is 1-6 ATS in its past 7 games overall.

• Washington State is 12-4-1 ATS in 17 games since the start of last season.

• Washington State is 14-6 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including 3-0 last season.

• The Cougars are 11-4 ATS in 15 road games coming off a SU loss under head coach Mike Leach.

• Mike Leach is 4-1 ATS against Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham, including a streak of four consecutive ATS wins.