Defending champion Clemson entered the season as the overwhelming preseason No. 1, and without losing a game or superstar quarterback Trevor Lawrence or any of their other standouts, the Tigers find themselves No. 5 in the first College Football Playoff ranking.
As improbable as that might have seemed back in August, the selection committee made a resounding statement with the way it made its first selections on Tuesday night: The Tigers are not only being held to a higher standard than everyone else, they are being punished for playing in the ACC.
Specifically, they are being punished for a one-point win over North Carolina.
It is obvious when you compare the résumés of Clemson and No. 3 Alabama. Neither the Tigers nor the Crimson Tide have beaten a team ranked in the Top 25. They share the same “best” win: Texas A&M. Clemson has beaten more Power 5 teams than Alabama. Clemson has beaten more teams with winning records than Alabama. And Clemson’s opponents have a better overall win percentage than Alabama.
What is very clearly holding Clemson back is a closer-than-expected 21-20 road win against North Carolina, which currently has a losing record. The Tigers have been in several other close games against ACC opponents in years they made the College Football Playoff, and it didn’t seem to hurt them as much (last year’s 27-23 win over Syracuse, for example). The difference this year is what appears to be overwhelming agreement the ACC is the worst among the Power 5 conferences.
It doesn’t help that No. 19 Wake Forest is the only other ACC team ranked. It doesn’t help that Syracuse has had a dreadful season, one year after winning 10 games. It doesn’t help that Florida State and Miami are average, at best.
Nothing, it seems, helps Clemson — not a better schedule than Alabama to this point. Not a win margin of 29.4 points (and that includes the one-point win over North Carolina). Not seven games in which it has scored 40 or more points. Not a 24-game winning streak or its title as defending champions. Not even the advanced metrics, like FPI and SP+, which both rate Clemson higher than Penn State.
The selection committee has been clear it would judge each team based on this year and this year alone. Clemson is not going to get some sort of pass for winning the national title last year, even if the Tigers are the first defending champ to be outside the top four in the initial rankings. But the committee also has emphasized ‘eye test,’ and the thought was that overall schedule strength would only be one among many factors the committee considers.
Since a lousy first quarter against Louisville on Oct. 19, Clemson has outscored its opponents 160-31. Two of its last three wins have come against ACC teams with winning records. Lawrence has not thrown an interception over his last seven quarters, and the Clemson offense seems to have hit its groove. And oh by the way, the starters have played a complete game twice this year.
After the North Carolina win, Swinney defended his program, saying, “It’s not easy to win. I know we’re supposed to destroy everybody, like nobody else has scholarships, nobody else has coaches. It doesn’t work that way. We’re just normal people. There’s nothing special about us. We’re not perfect. We don’t coach perfect. Unfortunately, we don’t play perfect every down, every game, but we found a way to win an ugly game.”
The truth is, nobody wants to see Clemson win an ugly game against competition others deem unworthy. There appears to be little Clemson could have done to avoid this scenario, except beat North Carolina by 30. But even then, you have to wonder whether the Tigers would be any higher than they are now given the expectation level relative to the competition. Having his starters play every snap in every game would not have made a difference, either.
During his weekly press conference on Tuesday, Swinney questioned why Alabama always gets the benefit of the doubt for beating up on its conference opponents, but not Clemson. “It is just the same ol’ spin,” he said.
He added that he wasn’t sure whether he’d even watch to see where his team is ranked, “It just doesn’t matter. If we’re two, three, four, 15 — it just doesn’t matter. It’s not worth the brain cells. We just go to work and try to have a good Wednesday practice.”
Now granted, all of this will change once LSU and Alabama play this weekend. Penn State has a tough game this weekend at undefeated Minnesota, and then the Nittany Lions face No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 23.
So if Clemson wins out, the Tigers are almost assuredly in. But these rankings reveal there is no margin for error for the defending champs. It is hard to envision any scenario in which they can overcome a loss, the way they did in their 2016 championship season, unless there is absolute chaos down the stretch.
No matter what Swinney says, Clemson needs to be perfect. But even then, there will be questions about just how good this team is if they do, indeed, make it back into the playoff.