UFC 249: What a Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje main event might look like

UFC president Dana White once said he would never book Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson again. That was after cancellation No. 4.

We appear to be at cancellation No. 5.

Nurmagomedov is in Russia, apparently no longer in the mix for UFC 249 because of how the global coronavirus pandemic is shutting down many aspects of society, including travel.

So he won’t be defending his lightweight title against Ferguson on April 18.

Ferguson said Nurmagomedov is scared and should be stripped of his belt. That is very unlikely to happen, considering the unprecedented circumstances facing the world.

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Staying home in quarantine and reading the reaction of people to the situation around my fight, it turns out that the whole world should be in quarantine, governments of all countries, famous people around the world urge people to follow all safety requirements in order to limit the spread of the disease, to save people, and Khabib is the only one relieved of all obligations and must demonstrate free will and train flying around the world, for the sake of fight? – I understand everything and I’m definitely upset more than you to cancel the fight, probably like all others, I had many plans after the fight, but I can’t control it all. The greatest countries and the largest companies of our time are shocked by what is happening, every day the situation changes unpredictably. But Khabib still has to fight, is that what you saying? – Take care of yourself and put yourself in my shoes. – 📍 Сижу дома на карантине и читаю реакцию людей на ситуацию вокруг моего боя, получается весь мир должен сидеть на карантине, правительства всех стран и известные люди всего мира призывают людей соблюдать требования безопасности, чтоб ограничить распространение болезни ради спасения людей, а Хабиб, освобождён от всех обязательств и должен демонстрировать свободу воли и тренироваться летая по всему миру рискуя своей жизнью ради боя ? – Я все понимаю и точно не меньше вас расстроен отменой боя, наверно у меня , как и у всех других, было много планов после боя, но я не в силах контролировать все это. Сверх державы и крупнейшие компании нашего времени в шоке от того, что происходит, каждый день ситуация меняется непредсказуемо. Но Хабиб все равно должен драться, так получается? – Берегите себя и поставьте себя на мое место.

A post shared by Khabib Nurmagomedov (@khabib_nurmagomedov) on Apr 1, 2020 at 12:02pm PDT

So what now?

All eyes are turning to top lightweight contender Justin Gaethje. Ferguson doesn’t seem thrilled with that proposition, but he has fought just once since October 2018 and probably would like to get paid — assuming there is a UFC 249, which does not yet have a location announced.

So how would Gaethje fare against Ferguson? For what it’s worth, Dustin Poirier gives the edge to Gaethje.

Gaethje had been pegged as Conor McGregor‘s next opponent, possibly for the International Fight Week card on July 11. Should Gaethje just wait for that? Is this too big of a risk? What would Gaethje vs. Ferguson mean for McGregor’s next opponent?

ESPN’s panel of Ariel Helwani, Brett Okamoto and Marc Raimondi addresses those topics and more.

If Ferguson does accept Gaethje as the opponent, how do you see that fight unfolding?

Helwani: The big question is, what kind of shape is Gaethje in? He has said he doesn’t like to take short-notice fights and he wasn’t scheduled to fight until the summer. If he is in relatively good shape, I don’t think it goes the distance, and I think it’s a wild, fun fight.

Okamoto: If I made a list of the most entertaining fighters to watch in the UFC right now, Ferguson and Gaethje would be near the top. Gaethje is a human wrecking ball who knows only one direction: forward. Ferguson is a dancing, spinning, somersaulting acrobat of a lightweight. They have two of the highest pain thresholds I’ve ever seen. We love hyperbole in sports, and we get carried away all the time. But the only way to describe this matchup is a fight-of-the-decade contender, and I honestly don’t know who would win. Under these circumstances though, lean Tony. He’s got a full camp in.

Raimondi: Any fights right now would be a total wild card. I’d have to give the advantage to Ferguson, because he has been in training camp since before the coronavirus pandemic. Right now, it seems like just about every gym in the United States is closed and there are guidelines everywhere about social distancing. Can anyone be as prepared as much as they normally would be? Highly doubtful.

How big of a risk would this be for Gaethje, and should he take it?

Helwani: Gaethje was in talks to fight McGregor next, per sources. So if he loses this fight, he’d likely lose that shot, too. But, who knows if that fight will even happen now and when normalcy resumes, so I guess he might as well take the payday, because if he wins he might get a title shot as a result.

Okamoto: It’s not a risk for Gaethje. It’s an opportunity. Yeah, there’s been some talk about him possibly fighting McGregor this year, but there’s always talk about McGregor fighting somebody. You don’t have a fight with McGregor until you have a fight with McGregor. If Gaethje goes out and beats Ferguson on short notice, in a fight-of-the-year candidate, on a pay-per-view that’s put on during a global pandemic in which it’s essentially the only sport in town, that’s a lot of momentum he picks up. If he turns the fight down — which, by the way, the UFC doesn’t love it when fighters do that anyway — then he’s sitting on the sideline hoping McGregor calls his name. And while that can work out in the end, it’s a dangerous game to play.

Raimondi: It’s a risk, but not a massive one. He would be coming in on short notice with the inability to have a true training camp. And there’s the potential of losing out on the possible McGregor bout. But who knows what the world and the UFC calendar will look like in a few months? Maybe McGregor is moved in another direction. Best-case scenario is Gaethje wins and he’s next in line for a title shot or a McGregor fight and possibly the biggest fight purse of his career. It would more than likely be worth it.

Gaethje was expected to be Conor’s next opponent in July; whom do you see McGregor fighting next if Ferguson vs. Gaethje happens?

Helwani: Impossible to predict. So much can change. I don’t think we should rule out Nurmagomedov, though. The UFC will try to make the biggest fight possible for McGregor the moment it can.

Okamoto: If Ferguson wins and is willing and able to make a quick turnaround, I think the UFC would consider an interim title fight between Ferguson and McGregor. That’d be a sweet scenario, wouldn’t it? There’s a great backstory between Ferguson and McGregor that includes them once sharing the same management. And the winner faces Nurmagomedov in what would be a massive fight.

If Gaethje wins, probably the same scenario. The UFC will want McGregor to be on a time frame in which he could fight Nurmagomedov by October or November, though, so in the event neither of those two (Ferguson, Gaethje) could go against him this summer and he badly wanted a fight, I believe Nate Diaz could get a phone call.

Raimondi: White hasn’t made it a secret that he wants McGregor to face Nurmagomedov next. I’d expect the UFC to push for that to be the next fight. Whether Nurmagomedov accepts that or not we don’t know. The UFC might force the issue, especially since now the promotion probably is not happy Nurmagomedov won’t fight at UFC 249.

Could Jorge Masvidal still be a possibility for McGregor? It seems like the Kamaru Usman vs. Masvidal welterweight title fight is all but agreed to — at some point — but the calendar is currently unclear. When fights do start up again normally, the UFC will likely want to make the biggest splash possible. McGregor vs. Masvidal would be enormous. Or how about Diaz? The trilogy fight between him and McGregor is out there and a good option for a huge fight.

If Ferguson doesn’t want to face Gaethje, what do you see as a potential new main event?

Helwani: I don’t think Gaethje is the problem. The problem is the location. They don’t have a location yet. I’d hazard to guess that if they find a location, Ferguson will accept the Gaethje fight.

Okamoto: Welterweight champion Usman and Masvidal are arguing over who did and did not accept to fight on April 18. The UFC was interested in the idea and probably would be again, if it did lose its main event altogether. Tyron Woodley says he’s ready to fight, and his rival and former title challenger Colby Covington has called for the fight, but a lot of discussions would have to take place. It’s crazy, you almost can’t rule anything out at this point. With the UFC determined to move forward with an event and fighters wanting to get paid, fights will come together. At the moment though, Ferguson vs. Gaethje has to be the front-runner.

Raimondi: Usman vs. Masvidal. Both seem willing to fight each other April 18, though I still feel that’s a long shot. This is only two weeks away already. But I could see the UFC going to that well if Ferguson vs. Gaethje doesn’t come together. Poirier has also made it known he would fight, though his name has yet to come up in legitimate talks. Perhaps that could change.

Another question is this: Would Ferguson fight someone at welterweight? Ferguson vs. Masvidal or something like that? If it comes to that, things would get completely piecemeal. While the idea of a fight like that is fun, then we’re getting to the point of just having a fight for the sake of having a fight. Sometimes stuff like that can end up being special. But it wouldn’t really make any kind of sense from a divisional perspective.

After it’s fallen through five times, is it time to move away from this matchup?

Helwani: Nah. Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson will happen when the time is right. Unfortunately, the stars haven’t aligned, but I think it happens at some point and if the opportunity presents itself to book it again, I think they should.

Okamoto: Never. It has to happen. I’m not superstitious. I believe the reason this fight hasn’t happened is nothing more than 100% terrible, awful, insanely bad luck. And I don’t know if it’ll happen the sixth time it’s booked. Or the seventh. Or the 15th. But I still want it!

Raimondi: Absolutely not. I don’t believe in curses. Sure, this has all been inexplicable. But Nurmagomedov and Ferguson are undoubtedly the two top lightweights in the world. The UFC was always built around the idea of finding out who is better, going back to its founding in 1993. Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson has to happen at some point, which is why in an ideal world the UFC would pump the brakes on UFC 249 and do that title fight at a later date, perhaps the fall. It is very much a matchup worth preserving. And if and when it does come together, it’ll be a momentous occasion and cause for celebration. The wait will have been worth it.