Best bets for Sunday’s NASCAR iRacing competition at Dover

NASCAR

The eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series travels to virtual Dover International Speedway this weekend.

The action will take place on iRacing, a motorsports simulation service that replicates the cars, tracks and physics of auto racing. The Pro Invitational Series is a competition between professional NASCAR drivers using computer racing wheels to pilot their virtual race cars from home.

Dover International Speedway is a high-banked, 1-mile concrete oval nicknamed “The Monster Mile” for its readiness to chew up and spit out competitors. The drivers will need to finesse their way around the track as they battle a loose-handling setup that will become only more unruly as tires wear. Those who have logged considerable practice laps will be at a noticeable advantage come race time.

Here’s a look at the drivers with the best shot to conquer The Monster Mile on Sunday.

Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.


Favorites

William Byron (+150)

With the unpredictability of Talladega in the rearview mirror, Byron is once again the overwhelming favorite. He has secured a top-5 during each of his past 11 starts at virtual Dover along with six poles and seven wins. In the Pro Invitational, Byron has completed 93% of green-flag laps inside the top five at non-drafting ovals. There’s a good chance he leads a sizable portion of Sunday’s race and it will take significant effort to wrestle away what would be his third win. He’s a strong bet, even at +150.

Ryan Preece (10-1)

Preece has displayed the components necessary to capture victory in the Pro Invitational. He qualified fourth at Bristol and started from the pole at Richmond, where he held off Byron for 59 laps before worn tires got the best of him. At short and intermediate tracks, he has remained inside the top five for 40% of his green-flag runs. He has been especially effective on restarts, improving his running position in 18 of 40 attempts.

On Thursday, Preece strung together consistent laps at Dover in a Pro Invitational practice race, finishing second to Parker Kligerman. That performance suggests he has figured out what is required to take care of tires at Dover and can find himself near the front in the closing laps.


Contenders

Parker Kligerman (15-1)

Kligerman finished strong in a pair of Dover races earlier in the week. He was most impressive during a 70-lap exhibition that included much of the top 10 in the Pro Invitational point standings. Kligerman led the final 38 laps of that race after Garrett Smithley relinquished the top spot. He finished 1.6 seconds ahead of Preece and saved far more of his tires in comparison to the other drivers. If cautions are kept to a minimum this weekend, tire management will be a crucial skill on longer runs under green-flag conditions.

John Hunter Nemechek (20-1)

Excluding Talladega, Nemechek has maintained a green-flag running position of fifth or better on 43% of his completed laps. Despite that regular presence up front, he sits outside the top 10 in points with a disappointing average finish of 16th. He has been held back by a high crash frequency and has squandered potential top-5 finishes at Texas and Richmond with late incidents.

Nemechek knows what is possible when he keeps his car clean. He started on the front row at Bristol and avoided anything beyond minor contact on the way to a runner-up finish. He’s a value play at 20-1 because of the crash-related bad fortune.


Long shot

The top three finishers from last week’s race at Talladega will be forced to start from the rear this Sunday. Unfortunately, this includes LaJoie, who rode to a second-place finish in his Pro Invitational debut.

Of all the long shots for this week, LaJoie has dedicated the most time to improvement through participation in three open practice sessions. If he exhibits patience with the field in front of him, his deep starting position can be used to his advantage by avoiding early wrecks among the mid-pack racers. Starting from the rear also makes him a sneaky — albeit risky — play in daily fantasy.

The pick

It’s really tough to pick against Byron, but Kligerman (15-1) has shown that he can take full advantage of the clean air that is afforded to the race leader by running quick, consistent laps. If he can get out front, that consistency will go a long way toward keeping the field at arm’s length.

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