Most of the big dominoes have fallen for NHL free agency after the first weekend – especially the movement as to who will tend twine next season.
As of Monday morning, Mike Hoffman is the final top prize at forward, while Alex Pietrangelo is the biggest defenseman name still on the market.
We also have Tyler Toffoli, Evgenii Dadonov, Mikael Granlund and Anthony Duclair available, and all will be fantasy relevant to some extent depending on where they sign.
While those are some exciting players still in the mix, we also had plenty of fantasy-relevant signings over the first few days.
Chief among them, the Buffalo Sabres luring Taylor Hall on a one-year deal.
Torey Krug is now a member of the St. Louis Blues, Tyson Barrie joined the Edmonton Oilers and Jacob Markstrom is now the starting goaltender for the Calgary Flames. That’s not to mention new homes for free agents Craig Smith, Wayne Simmonds, Braden Holtby, Kevin Shattenkirk, Corey Crawford, Bobby Ryan and Henrik Lundqvist.
Then we have a number of trades that shook up the fantasy ranks, including Devan Dubnyk to the Sharks, Matt Murray to the Senators, Max Domi to the Blue Jackets, and the Maple Leafs shipping out both Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson.
The Big Fish
Taylor Hall, F, Buffalo Sabres: Hall joining the Sabres ranks is a massive move for both himself and Jack Eichel. Poor Eichel has seemed like a one-man show at times during the past couple of seasons, but Hall gives him a bona fide MVP on his wing. Hall is on a show-me, one-year deal and looking to prove himself. His numbers haven’t been completely in the gutter since his Hart Trophy campaign in 2017-18, but injuries and a troubled supporting cast hurt his showing since then. He looked more or less himself with the Coyotes at the tail end of last season. On paper, these two should shine together and elevate the Sabres power play. Eichel stays among the top-10 overall fantasy picks, while it could be argued that Hall moves into the top 25.
Goaltender Carousel
As much goaltender movement as there has been in the last week, the impact on the fantasy world is minimal. In fact, for the time being, the top 12 goaltenders on my personal rankings don’t change and none of them are among those who changed teams.
But goaltender is a fickle position and anyone earning starts needs to be on your radar during the season, so let’s a have a look at the players that shifted around in order of projected fantasy value.
Jacob Markstrom, G, Calgary Flames: Emerging as a reliable starter over the course of the past three seasons, Markstrom has done so while playing for the team that ranks 26th during that span in SAT (Corsi). In other words, he’s seen his fair share of pucks. The Flames, on the other hand, have been fourth in SAT during that same span. That alone is an interesting enough stat, but the situation is also ideal. Markstrom moves away from having future stars nipping at his heels for starts in Vancouver to having the net all to himself in Calgary. David Rittich, given how last season played out, doesn’t offer a lot of threat and will play backup. This could mean 65-plus starts from Markstrom and borderline top-12 goaltender status.
Matt Murray, G, Ottawa Senators: Let’s be clear: There are no guarantees here with Murray and he could just as easily be among the worst possible fantasy goaltenders this season. But there’s also some hope. On the plus side, he has the reins of a young and likely improving team all to himself. On the negative side, his splits compared to Tristan Jarry last season are scary-bad. Playing behind the same players last season, Jarry (.929) had the fifth-best even-strength save percentage in the league, while Murray (.901) had the fifth-worst. Anders Nilsson is still hanging around, but the Sens signed Murray to be the workhorse here. He’s worth a mid-to-late round shot just for the workload.
This is just a paragraph to separate the goaltenders that should be in the mix to be drafted as starters for fantasy from the rest of the pack. Many of them will be drafted and some have upside to earn value, but Markstrom and Murray are the ones to consider here.
Devan Dubnyk, G, San Jose Sharks: While Dubnyk fell off a cliff for ratios last year at the typical age most goaltenders start a faster decline, there is some hope the change of scenery is enough to get him back into the mix. The Sharks are typically mid-to-top of the pack for SAT with one of the best penalty kills around. While I wouldn’t have Dubnyk in a starting lineup out of the draft, I would have him on the bench as a third goalie and be happy.
Braden Holtby, G, Vancouver Canucks: I mean, he’s certainly earned a paycheck based on his career, but Braden Holtby has been anything but a reliable fantasy starter for the past couple of seasons. But a $4.3M cap hit means he won’t take a full-scale backseat to an up-and-coming Thatcher Demko. It’s arguable that Demko is the better value for fantasy. Holtby ranks 54th for both ratio categories among all goaltenders with at least 20 starts in the past three seasons. There’s upside here, as he is still only 31, but don’t pin hopes on the situation and consider stashing Demko.
Corey Crawford, G, New Jersey Devils: Probably not much to see here for the soon-to-be 36-year-old Crawford. Mackenzie Blackwood showed a lot of promise and Crawford is likely here to be an experienced backup. Either way, the Devils aren’t likely in a position to push any goaltender into fantasy prominence.
Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Talbot and Thomas Greiss found new homes with the Washington Capitals, Minnesota Wild and Detroit Red Wings. But it’s doubtful they are heavily in the mix for fantasy players. Talbot and Greiss are in a position to possibly earn a lot of starts, but there’s not enough there to make them roster worthy out of the gate.
Anton Khudobin, G, Dallas Stars: Khudobin certainly earned a contract with his carry of the Stars to the Stanley Cup finals. But now the Stars have two goaltenders that will be 34 years old when the next season starts – with both of them still signed through the 2022-23 season. For building sake, it would have been better to see a more balanced approach. As for fantasy, Khudobin played himself into a timeshare with Bishop going forward, somewhat dampening the overall value of either individual. That said, it’s easy to picture the injury bug catching up with one of them, propelling the other into a larger and more fantasy-friendly role. But it’s not a gamble to take at the draft table unless it falls into your lap in the later rounds.
Skaters
Torey Krug, D, St. Louis Blues: A lateral move for Krug retains his value as a top-20 fantasy defenseman. He goes from the team with the third-best power play last season to the team with the fourth best. Assuming Alex Pietrangelo signs elsewhere, the power play will be all Krug’s and the talent will be close to – if not quite as – explosive as it was with the Bruins. Only John Carlson has more power-play points among defensemen over the past three seasons, so the role is pretty clear for Krug.
Tyson Barrie, D, Edmonton Oilers: This is a very intriguing landing spot for Barrie, as he jumps to the top of the defensive depth chart on paper. Now, there’s a chance Darnell Nurse or Evan Bouchard take a big leap or a healthy Oscar Klefbom settles back into a top role, but it looks like Barrie should have power-play access to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Suffice it to say, that’s a solid position to be in. Barrie can carry a power play, he just wasn’t asked to with the Maple Leafs. In his last two seasons with the Avalanche, Barrie was third in power-play points among all defensemen with 55.
Max Domi, F, Columbus Blue Jackets: After a 2018-19 that looked incredibly positive in his first season with the Habs, Domi fell short of all expectations last season. He’ll slot into a rock solid top six for the Blue Jackets, he’s only 25 and that 72-point, 80-PIM season is enticing enough to give him a mulligan for last season.
Craig Smith, F, Boston Bruins: Smith is a nice, sneaky addition by the Bruins. They don’t need him for the top six, but he can keep up with top scoring lines when called upon. He likes to press the offense and generates a lot of shots. He’ll help make Charlie Coyle more productive on the third line and be in the mix for fantasy whenever a Bruins scoring-line winger is hurt.
Wayne Simmonds, F, Toronto Maple Leafs: The fantasy glory days seem to have passed for the 32-year-old Simmonds. He likely won’t find relevance to fantasy players among the Leafs bottom six. He’ll likely earn secondary power-play time, but that hasn’t been enough to fuel value in fantasy leagues for the past couple seasons, so it’s doubtful it will now. If injury befalls a Zach Hyman-type among the top lines then – and only then – might Simmonds get the stats he needs to make your roster for a stretch.