Setting aside for a moment the fact that we know some early torrid paces will cool down, other players will heat up and injuries will happen: Let’s take a quick look at the number of fantasy points remaining for some of our top skaters.
If we take a player’s fantasy points per game (FPPG) and multiply it by the number of games they have left, that’s how much fantasy value they have remaining — again, assuming a static pace forward (which we know isn’t the case).
The skater with the most remaining fantasy value right now is Joe Pavelski, but few are banking on his 3.4 FPPG to hold for another 44 games. The next three players should come as a shock to no one, as Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid are next in line.
But who is that lurking in fifth place? With a reasonable sample of the season on the books to make this calculation, it’s fair to call it a surprise to see Jordan Staal here. If I had told you it was a member of the Carolina Hurricanes, you may have guessed Sebastian Aho, unless you’ve been paying close attention to the team.
Averaging 3.0 FPPG through 11 games, Staal has found a rhythm with Andrei Svechnikov and Warren Foegele, as well as found his way onto the team’s top power-play unit.
With Staal sneaking his way up the list of top fantasy stars so far this season, it has me wondering who else has subtle-but-elite value. I’ve tried to target some players who may not get top billing for their team, but are shelling out top fantasy points.
Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buffalo Sabres: He’s not taken over the power play from Rasmus Dahlin or anything like that, but he’s using the secondary power-play time effectively and collecting stronger peripheral stats (hits, blocked shots) to make him the Sabres top fantasy defenseman so far. His 2.2 FPPG and many postponements has him sitting eighth among all defensemen for fantasy value remaining.
Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights: On a team with Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, it’s Martinez collecting the most fantasy points. He’s second in the NHL in blocked shots, while picking up enough points and power-play points to fuel a ridiculous run so far this season. The points may not be steady, as both Theodore and Pietrangelo have missed time, but the peripheral stats will continue.
Bryan Rust, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: Leading all Penguins in fantasy points so far this season, a lot of the value comes from him getting pucks on the net. He’s 16th in shots on goal in the NHL and is a mainstay on the Penguins power play (despite that not meaning as much this season).
Devon Toews, D, Colorado Avalanche: He leads the Avalanche blue line in FPPG, which is a significant accomplishment with Cale Makar in the house. While his role will be secondary (much like Ristolainen and Martinez), he collects enough counting stats to stay in the mix here. I don’t expect him to finish ahead of Makar, but he’ll give him a run for his money.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, New York Islanders: Leading the Islanders in fantasy points, Pageau is getting it done across the board. He’s helped by ranking eighth among all forward in blocked shots, while collecting points on both special teams. As for fantasy value remaining at his current pace, he sits 86th in the league — just behind Roman Josi and just ahead of John Tavares.
0:21
Jean-Gabriel Pageau beats Sabres goalie Linus Ullmark up high in the Islanders’ 3-1 win.
Forwards on the move
Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings (up 21 spots to No. 25): The Kings leader is having himself a year. He would be on pace for a 107-point season if there were 82 games on tap. There’s not much different about the lineup and deployment this season, as he’s still with Dustin Brown and Alex Iafallo — but I think we can give some credit to the rest of the depth chart showing better and taking some of the opponents’ defensive focus off Kopitar’s line.
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils (up 49 spots to No. 92): We spent a lot of time discussing banked fantasy points with the past two fantasy forecasters, and I think it’s time to invest in Hughes now or miss the boat. The Devils are due back in action for the first time since Jan. 31. While Hughes hasn’t been a complete revelation in regards to his FPPG (1.8 though nine games), having 47 games remaining this season gives him extra contests to draw on and makes him a lot more attractive to your fantasy squad.
Defensemen on the move
Brent Burns, D, San Jose Sharks (down 22 spots to No. 49): He’s doing his best to hang onto value with continued high volume of shots on goal (though nowhere near a Burns-esque pace), but the numbers just aren’t there this season. The Sharks power play isn’t a source of monster stats anymore and Burns’ fantasy value is suffering because of it. At his current pace, he ranks 39th among defensemen for fantasy value remaining. He still gets a little rope in the rankings due to the Sharks strange start to the season (no home games until this past weekend).
Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings (up 33 spots to No. 65): We can’t highlight Kopitar without mentioning Doughty here. He’s also on a pace for the best season of his career, with 11 points and three goals though 13 games. He’s already scored more than half his total of power-play points from last season. He ranks third for fantasy value remaining among defensemen — just behind Victor Hedman and just ahead of Jeff Petry.
Goaltenders on the move
Anton Khudobin, G, Dallas Stars (down 34 spots to No. 89): It’s not an even comparison, as the Stars are clearly giving Jake Oettinger the lesser of the assignments when it comes to starting, but the fact that he and Khudobin are dead even at 1.9 FPPG so far and that Khudobin has only played 54 percent of the team’s total minutes are both concerning for his overall value. While the team will still see plenty of Nashville, Detroit, Columbus and Chicago, there are also plenty of games against Carolina, Tampa Bay and Florida to come.
Mackenzie Blackwood, G, New Jersey Devils (up 13 spots to No. 113): I know we haven’t seen him in the crease for nearly a month (Jan. 19), but Blackwood looked rock solid in his three outings to start the season. It’s a small sample, but I think the risk is worth taking given the massive advantage the Devils have in remaining games played. A truncated schedule is bound to cut into his playing time a bit — as one would expect more back-to-back sets to make up for lost time — but for those looking to inject new life in their fantasy crease, I can’t think of a better trade target when it comes to cost versus potential reward.
New to rankings
P.K. Subban (No. 203), Ty Smith (215), Max Comtois (219), Justin Schultz (232), James Reimer (234), Nick Foligno (235), Alex Iafallo (237), Jack Roslovic (238), Jonas Brodin (241), Justin Faulk (243), Brandon Tanev (246), Evan Bouchard (248), Brock McGinn (250).
Just missed
Paul Stastny, Adam Lowry, David Savard, Ryan Donato, Ryan Johansen, Phillip Danault, Tyler Bertuzzi, Ryan Getzlaf, Pius Suter, Jaden Schwartz, Drake Batherson, Joe Thornton, Jeff Carter, Tyler Johnson, Robby Fabbri, Jason Dickinson, Zdeno Chara, Nikita Zaitsev, Joonas Donskoi, Andreas Athanasiou.
Dropped out
Tanner Pearson, Alexis Lafreniere, Esa Lindell, Matt Grzelcyk, Jason Zucker, Anthony Duclair, Adam Henrique, Alex Killorn, Adam Boqvist, Pekka Rinne, Tim Stutzle, Rickard Rakell, Tyler Motte.
Fantasy hockey top-250 rankings
1. David Pastrnak, RW, Bos (RW1)
2. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (C1)
3. Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, TB (G1)
4. Auston Matthews, C, Tor (C2)
5. Alex Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (LW1)
6. Steven Stamkos, C, TB (C3)
7. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (LW2)
8. Mitchell Marner, RW, Tor (RW2)
9. Jack Eichel, C, Buf (C4)
10. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D1)
11. Brad Marchand, LW, Bos (LW3)
12. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Col (C5)
13. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D2)
14. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (RW3)
15. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Fla (LW4)
16. Patrice Bergeron, C, Bos (C6)
17. Connor Hellebuyck, G, Wpg (G2)
18. Artemi Panarin, LW, NYR (LW5)
19. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (C7)
20. Mikko Rantanen, RW, Col (RW4)
21. Mark Stone, RW, Vgs (RW5)
22. Sebastian Aho, C, Car (C8)
23. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgs (D3)
24. Aleksander Barkov, C, Fla (C9)
25. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (C10)
26. Philipp Grubauer, G, Col (G3)
27. Brayden Point, C, TB (C11)
28. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (C12)
29. Max Pacioretty, LW, Vgs (LW6)
30. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G4)
31. John Tavares, C, Tor (C13)
32. Blake Wheeler, RW, Wpg (RW6)
33. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (LW7)
34. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D4)
35. Jacob Markstrom, G, Cgy (G5)
36. Patrik Laine, RW, Cls (RW7)
37. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D5)
38. Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos (D6)
39. Cale Makar, D, Col (D7)
40. Jeff Petry, D, Mon (D8)
41. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Wsh (C14)
42. Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Car (LW8)
43. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (RW8)
44. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (LW9)
45. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G6)
46. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chi (LW10)
47. Taylor Hall, LW, Buf (LW11)
48. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Col (LW12)
49. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D9)
50. Frederik Andersen, G, Tor (G7)
51. Dougie Hamilton, D, Car (D10)
52. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (C15)
53. Sean Couturier, C, Phi (C16)
54. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cgy (LW13)
55. Mika Zibanejad, C, NYR (C17)
56. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Vgs (G8)
57. Darnell Nurse, D, Edm (D11)
58. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (LW14)
59. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (RW9)
60. John Klingberg, D, Dal (D12)
61. Elias Pettersson, C, Van (C18)
62. Tuukka Rask, G, Bos (G9)
63. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (RW10)
64. Filip Forsberg, LW, Nsh (LW15)
65. Drew Doughty, D, LA (D13)
66. Logan Couture, C, SJ (C19)
67. Carey Price, G, Mon (G10)
68. J.T. Miller, C, Van (C20)
69. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G11)
70. Morgan Rielly, D, Tor (D14)
71. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott (D15)
72. Evgeni Malkin, C, Pit (C21)
73. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Cgy (LW16)
74. Seth Jones, D, Cls (D16)
75. Mathew Barzal, C, NYI (C22)
76. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (C23)
77. Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla (D17)
78. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (RW11)
79. John Gibson, G, Ana (G12)
80. Tyson Barrie, D, Edm (D18)
81. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D19)
82. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D20)
83. Darcy Kuemper, G, Ari (G13)
84. Kailer Yamamoto, RW, Edm (RW12)
85. Carter Hart, G, Phi (G14)
86. Patric Hornqvist, RW, Fla (RW13)
87. Ryan Ellis, D, Nsh (D21)
88. Shea Theodore, D, Vgs (D22)
89. Anton Khudobin, G, Dal (G15)
90. Kris Letang, D, Pit (D23)
91. Ilya Samsonov, G, Wsh (G16)
92. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (C24)
93. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (RW14)
94. Tomas Hertl, C, SJ (C25)
95. Victor Olofsson, RW, Buf (RW15)
96. Jacob Trouba, D, NYR (D24)
97. Jakob Chychrun, D, Ari (D25)
98. Ondrej Palat, LW, TB (LW17)
99. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (RW16)
100. Vincent Trocheck, C, Car (C26)
101. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (LW18)
102. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Wpg (LW19)
103. Shea Weber, D, Mon (D26)
104. Robin Lehner, G, Vgs (G17)
105. Ryan O’Reilly, C, StL (C27)
106. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI (D27)
107. Evander Kane, LW, SJ (LW20)
108. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Buf (D28)
109. Alec Martinez, D, Vgs (D29)
110. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (LW21)
111. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (C28)
112. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Car (RW17)
113. Mackenzie Blackwood, G, NJ (G18)
114. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Mon (RW18)
115. Bryan Rust, RW, Pit (RW19)
116. Nick Suzuki, C, Mon (C29)
117. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (LW22)
118. Matt Dumba, D, Min (D30)
119. Keith Yandle, D, Fla (D31)
120. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (LW23)
121. William Nylander, RW, Tor (RW20)
122. Sam Reinhart, RW, Buf (RW21)
123. Anders Lee, LW, NYI (LW24)
124. Rasmus Andersson, D, Cgy (D32)
125. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Wsh (C30)
126. Bo Horvat, C, Van (C31)
127. Neal Pionk, D, Wpg (D33)
128. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D34)
129. Dylan Larkin, C, Det (C32)
130. David Perron, RW, StL (RW22)
131. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (C33)
132. Ryan Suter, D, Min (D35)
133. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buf (D36)
134. Jake Muzzin, D, Tor (D37)
135. Joonas Korpisalo, G, Cls (G19)
136. Devon Toews, D, Col (D38)
137. Zach Werenski, D, Cls (D39)
138. Alexander Radulov, RW, Dal (RW23)
139. Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G20)
140. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Cls (RW24)
141. Claude Giroux, LW, Phi (LW25)
142. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D40)
143. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Ari (D41)
144. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D42)
145. Zach Parise, LW, Min (LW26)
146. Sean Monahan, C, Cgy (C34)
147. Denis Gurianov, LW, Dal (LW27)
148. Torey Krug, D, StL (D43)
149. Cam Talbot, G, Min (G21)
150. Josh Anderson, RW, Mon (RW25)
151. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D44)
152. Mark Giordano, D, Cgy (D45)
153. Cam Atkinson, RW, Cls (RW26)
154. Damon Severson, D, NJ (D46)
155. Jordan Staal, C, Car (C35)
156. Timo Meier, RW, SJ (RW27)
157. Dominik Kubalik, LW, Chi (LW28)
158. Kevin Lankinen, G, Chi (G22)
159. Mike Hoffman, LW, StL (LW29)
160. Carter Verhaeghe, C, Fla (C36)
161. Jakub Voracek, RW, Phi (RW28)
162. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D47)
163. Andre Burakovsky, LW, Col (LW30)
164. Dustin Brown, RW, LA (RW29)
165. Kevin Fiala, C, Min (C37)
166. Jordan Eberle, RW, NYI (RW30)
167. Alexander Edler, D, Van (D48)
168. Brendan Gallagher, RW, Mon (RW31)
169. Jakub Vrana, C, Wsh (C38)
170. Anthony Cirelli, C, TB (C39)
171. Nick Ritchie, LW, Bos (LW31)
172. Joel Farabee, LW, Phi (LW32)
173. Jaroslav Halak, G, Bos (G23)
174. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NJ (RW32)
175. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Car (RW33)
176. Ryan Strome, C, NYR (C40)
177. William Karlsson, C, Vgs (C41)
178. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D49)
179. Samuel Girard, D, Col (D50)
180. Juuse Saros, G, Nsh (G24)
181. Tomas Tatar, LW, Mon (LW33)
182. Jake Allen, G, Mon (G25)
183. Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Nsh (RW34)
184. Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Min (C42)
185. Elvis Merzlikins, G, Cls (G26)
186. Conor Garland, RW, Ari (RW35)
187. Mikael Granlund, LW, Nsh (LW34)
188. Alex Tuch, RW, Vgs (RW36)
189. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, NYR (RW37)
190. Boone Jenner, C, Cls (C43)
191. Jean-Gabriel Pageau, C, NYI (C44)
192. Jordan Kyrou, C, StL (C45)
193. Josh Norris, C, Ott (C46)
194. Christian Dvorak, LW, Ari (LW35)
195. Anthony Mantha, RW, Det (RW38)
196. Kevin Hayes, C, Phi (C47)
197. Duncan Keith, D, Chi (D51)
198. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D52)
199. Nazem Kadri, C, Col (C48)
200. Phil Kessel, RW, Ari (RW39)
201. Nick Schmaltz, C, Ari (C49)
202. Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, StL (RW40)
203. P.K. Subban, D, NJ (D53)
204. Blake Coleman, LW, TB (LW36)
205. Jaccob Slavin, D, Car (D54)
206. Petr Mrazek, G, Car (G27)
207. Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Ott (RW41)
208. Erik Gustafsson, D, Phi (D55)
209. Max Domi, C, Cls (C50)
210. Chandler Stephenson, C, Vgs (C51)
211. Brock Nelson, C, NYI (C52)
212. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (C53)
213. Matt Duchene, C, Nsh (C54)
214. Chris Driedger, G, Fla (G28)
215. Ty Smith, D, NJ (D56)
216. Pavel Francouz, G, Col (G29)
217. Tyler Myers, D, Van (D57)
218. Scott Laughton, LW, PHI (LW37)
219. Max Comtois, LW, Ana (LW38)
220. Ryan Graves, D, Col (D58)
221. Adam Larsson, D, Edm (D59)
222. Noah Dobson, D, NYI (D60)
223. Miles Wood, LW, NJ (LW39)
224. Mikko Koskinen, G, Edm (G30)
225. Antti Raanta, G, Ari (G31)
226. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgs (LW40)
227. Clayton Keller, C, Ari (C55)
228. Brian Elliott, G, Phi (G32)
229. Andrew Copp, C, Wpg (C56)
230. Jordan Greenway, LW, Min (LW41)
231. Calvin Petersen, G, LA (G33)
232. Justin Schultz, D, Wsh (D61)
233. Linus Ullmark, G, Buf (G34)
234. James Reimer, G, Car (G35)
235. Nick Foligno, LW, Cls (LW42)
236. Mikael Backlund, C, Cgy (C57)
237. Alex Iafallo, LW, LA (LW43)
238. Jack Roslovic, C, Cls (C58)
239. Zach Hyman, LW, Tor (LW44)
240. Vince Dunn, D, StL (D62)
241. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D63)
242. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Pit (RW42)
243. Justin Faulk, D, StL (D64)
244. Martin Necas, C, Car (C59)
245. Dylan Strome, C, Chi (C60)
246. Brandon Tanev, LW, Pit (LW45)
247. Cody Glass, C, Vgs (C61)
248. Evan Bouchard, D, Edm (D65)
249. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D66)
250. Brock McGinn, LW, Car (LW46)