The Seattle Mariners made some unfortunate news in the past week, but perhaps getting lost in the shuffle is the relative clarification — and this is a positive — that the franchise intends to promote awesome outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic in April. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean Opening Day, because he needs the extra two weeks or so of minor league work to hone his swing or to better track fly balls (wink, wink). In any event, Kelenic is among the top prospects not just on the Mariners, but in the entire fantasy baseball world. Get him quickly.
Kelenic is a sweet-swinging lefty who not only projects as a player who will please fantasy managers in points leagues, but he can also fill each of the five categories in roto formats as well. He has power, speed, plate discipline, you name it. The famously former New York Mets farmhand — they will regret dealing him — saw a mere 92 plate appearances in Double-A in 2019. Last year? Well, who knows how he looked, but I think we are all underestimating this recent news: Jarred Kelenic could get at least 500 plate appearances in the majors this season! He will hit! He will run!
He also moved way up in my rankings to the point he is actually my No. 2 rookie-eligible prospect (for fantasy, of course) heading into the 2021 season. Some might call this aggressive, but I do not see the problem. Kelenic is the No. 3 prospect on ESPN colleague Kiley McDaniel’s list for good reason, with “above-average hit and power tools” and stolen base upside. Now we know the potential timetable, and it is a good one. We also do not expect either of the top two options (Wander Franco, Adley Rutschman) to debut in April, if at all in 2021.
My philosophy in regards to coveting prospects in redraft formats generally rules out pitchers, for hitters are far safer and reliable. They’re also more impactful for roto leagues if they boast five-category upside. Still, there are never guarantees. St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson, for example, is nine months older than Kelenic and played quite a bit for the big club last season, but not enough to remove his rookie eligibility. A switch-hitter, Carlson started to hit nicely in late-September and then batted cleanup for the club in the playoffs (in case one wonders how the organization views him). He is done with the minors. I see positive similarities between Kelenic and Carlson for five-category potential.
Anyway, perhaps I rank Kelenic and Carlson a bit better than most for roto purposes, but I think it is a rather good thing when an outfielder contributes across the board. These youngsters should do precisely that. They do not appear to be blocked by their teams any longer. McDaniel is not as high on Kelenic’s ability to help fantasy managers in 2021, but I am all-in.
Here is a personal Stock Watch of sorts for prospects to watch over the next month — excluding Kelenic and Carlson, whom I clearly like — and well beyond.
Prospect fantasy values I like
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: Of course he is not going to hit .376 again because nobody does, but he also clubbed five home runs in 95 PA. Yeah, yeah, I know, Hayes is supposedly not a power hitter. He is an elite defender with a strong hit tool, but the way he barreled up baseballs in his debut sure was impressive — and I refuse to diminish his power potential. He can hit 20-plus homers in the majors, even in that ballpark. And, by the way, he stole bases in the minors and could do that for the Pirates and you, too. I intend to get Hayes in a few leagues as long as it is in the second half of drafts. Right now, that could easily be the case.
Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins: His big league debut came in the playoffs which, again, shows how the franchise views him. This is Eddie Rosario‘s (now with Cleveland) corner outfield replacement. While Kirilloff could initially end up protected versus left-handed pitching, let us view this as a good thing. We want him to hit for a high batting average, and we know there is ample power lurking, so roll with it. Nobody is saying to take Kirilloff over Rosario for 2021, but I am not even seeing the youngster getting drafted at all. That is a mistake.
Luis Patino, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: Sure there are all the usual caveats here, expressing caution with young pitchers. Still, Patino debuted with San Diego in 2020 and, other than the lack of control, he looked fine. The Rays take care of pitchers, and while Patino is unlikely to make 25 starts, I suspect he will pitch well when he does pitch. Look at the potential rotation: Is Rich Hill making 25 starts, or even half that many? Can Michael Wacha succeed? Patino (currently eligible only as a relief pitcher, if that matters in your league) will pile on the strikeouts and I think fantasy managers that fade him based on his small-sample 5.19 ERA are making a mistake. I will invest in Patino as my fifth or sixth starter.
Others: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox; Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles; Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers; Nate Pearson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays; Logan Gilbert, SP, Seattle Mariners
Prospect fantasy values I do not like
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Yes, he’s still a rookie! What odd rules baseball still follows, with no pending change in sight. This fellow starred last September and in the playoffs in October, homering seemingly every other day, and yet he can still win the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2021. Perhaps he will. However, Arozarena was never a top-100 prospect, and I think we should have at least some doubts about him hitting right-handed pitching on a consistent basis, which would cost him playing time. Ranking him in our fantasy top 100 seems a bit risky, so I will likely fade him for safer choices. Frankly, though I cannot rank this way or I’d risk looking foolish, but I would not be the least bit surprised if Kelenic has a better season.
Nick Madrigal, 2B, Chicago White Sox: Madrigal’s debut went mostly as expected as he hit for average, stole a few bases and offered nary a lick of power. Well, this type of player is generally not one I covet, and there is some risk here as well. Madrigal is a contact hitter who rarely hits baseballs hard. Despite already having 109 PA, we still await his first big-league barrel. He would have to hit .340 and steal many bases to approach the first half of a draft for me. This is also part of a bigger roster construction philosophy for me: all of your other hitters better flaunt power if you roster someone that has none.
Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox: The hard-throwing right-hander should be fully healthy after Tommy John surgery, but when the organization’s general manager recently noted that Kopech could be used out of the bullpen (either for his own health or because of the team’s rotation depth), that made it even more likely I was fading him. Yeah, we draft for skills first and presume the best players ultimately get their just opportunity, but if Kopech is neither starting nor closing, I might not rank him in my top 300 at all. Kopech and his 100 mph heater could be great, but probably not in 2021.
Others: Ha-Seong Kim, SS, San Diego Padres; Triston McKenzie, SP, Cleveland; MacKenzie Gore, SP, San Diego Padres; Trevor Rogers, SP, Miami Marlins; Spencer Howard, SP, Philadelphia Phillies