Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg threw 245 1/3 innings in 2019 over the course of the regular season to winning World Series MVP honors, so we can probably dispense with the durability narrative in the fantasy baseball world. He proved himself. Then again, Strasburg threw all of five innings during the 2020 season and he left Sunday’s spring outing in the third inning with a mild calf strain. So which is it? What is the narrative today?
Fantasy managers already seemed to be hedging with Strasburg, as his value as a 10th-round selection and solid No. 3 fantasy starter seems fair. Then again, we know he can be a strikeout ace and, unfortunately, we know he can miss substantial playing time. This latest injury is likely to spark fears in easily concerned drafters but the truth is that it might end up being nothing. Strasburg called it “nothing major” and we hope he is right. He missed most of last season with a wrist injury that necessitated surgery.
Checking out ESPN ADP, there seems a rough region of starting pitchers all dealing with spring injuries. Fantasy managers just might not want to deal with it. Strasburg is one of them. New York Mets right-hander Carlos Carrasco has elbow soreness and that is never a good thing. He could throw a bullpen session early this week, but as for his early-April availability, who knows? The Cincinnati Reds have already announced that they expect right-hander Sonny Gray to miss the first week or two of the season due to back spasms. He simply will not be ready by then.
I pull this reference out of left field a lot in March when we hear about pitchers and injuries which could be minor: Remember Jason Schmidt in 2003? OK, it was a long time ago, but the San Francisco Giants right-hander had some minor injury expected to see him start the year on the disabled list and miss some April starts. Fantasy managers panicked and ignored him. Schmidt debuted a few weeks late and made only 29 starts that season. However, he was the No. 1 option in fantasy. He nearly won the Cy Young award. Did you avoid him? Strasburg, Carrasco and Gray can still have terrific seasons.
Anyway, perhaps things are trending in the wrong direction for those starting pitchers, but we shall hold firm to our usual Monday theme (here is last week’s version) of checking out the value going up and down with our latest Stock Watch.
Stock up
Joc Pederson, OF, Chicago Cubs: Five home runs in nine spring games is a nice start, but we already know who this fellow is. Pederson clubbed 36 home runs for the 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers. Each one of them came against a right-handed pitcher. The Cubs claim Pederson will get the chance to face all pitching, but for someone who has never hit as high as .250 in any season and is a .191 hitter lifetime versus lefties, perhaps that is not such a great idea. Regardless, Pederson is reminding fantasy managers to draft him and they will likely do so, even if a bit too eagerly.
Mauricio Dubon, OF, San Francisco Giants: Perhaps it means little without the proper context, but Dubon boasts seven walks versus just one strikeout so far, as he closes in on securing the center field role. We still await his first extra-base hit of the spring, but Dubon is 4-for-11 and he has stolen a base. He might be eligible at second base and shortstop as well in your league. I think a 15 HR/15 SB fellow lurks here and, if his plate discipline sticks, he should hit for average as well.
Kohei Arihara, SP, Texas Rangers: The successful Japanese import tossed four scoreless innings against the Colorado Rockies on Sunday but he appears to be way off the board in ESPN fantasy leagues. That might be a mistake. Arihara is probably not a pending ace, and the Rangers might be bad, but the right-hander is new to this league and that gives him the early-season advantage. He should be good for plenty of innings after a regular role in 2020, in which he had a 3.46 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
Also trending up: Tyler O’Neill, OF, St. Louis Cardinals; Kenta Maeda, SP, Minnesota Twins; Jose De Leon, SP, Cincinnati Reds; Robbie Ray, SP, Toronto Blue Jays; Ty France, 2B, Seattle Mariners; Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals; Bobby Bradley, 1B, Cleveland.
Stock down
Khris Davis, DH, Texas Rangers: He was fun to invest in when he clubbed 40 home runs and hit .247 every season, but that did not happen with the Oakland Athletics in 2019 and it is not happening this spring. Davis struck out in each of his Sunday at-bats and now has but one single in 18 spring at-bats, with seven strikeouts. I know I should not care about how a 33-year-old hitter does in the spring but I have a tough time ignoring things in this instance. If Davis struggles, the Rangers might simply avoid him and go with younger players.
Caleb Smith, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: This strikeout lefty walked four while whiffing five in Sunday’s outing against the Giants, which is not exactly the most exciting brand of baseball! Perhaps that is what Smith is, the NL version of Robbie Ray, but when these pitchers have command of their pitches, they can be dynamic. Smith fanned 168 hitters in 153 1/3 innings for the 2019 Miami Marlins. He can be a fantasy sleeper. It would be nice to see him avoid walks.
Rio Ruiz, 3B, Baltimore Orioles OK, so nobody was anchoring their team with this fellow, but weekend reports of veteran Maikel Franco nearing a contract with the Orioles is bad news for Ruiz. Franco hit nicely for the 2020 Kansas City Royals, is a reasonable 20 HR/80 RBI option for a full season, and likely hits in the middle of this underwhelming Baltimore lineup. He is 27. One can do worse as a final-round, corner-infield option even in a 10-team mixed format.
Also trending down: Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers; Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants; Brad Miller, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies; Willie Calhoun, DH, Texas Rangers; Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies; Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals; Craig Kimbrel (yes, again), RP, Chicago Cubs.