We’ve got another Game 7 in the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs, and with a berth to the finals on the line, the stakes are higher in this Game 7 than for any that came before it this postseason. In front of a raucous crowd at the Nassau Coliseum in Game 6, the New York Islanders overcame a 2-0 deficit, defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime to bring on this ultimate showdown.
Who will be the biggest X factors in this game? Which team do our panelists believe will win the game, moving on to the Stanley Cup Final? Let’s dive in.
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Who will be the biggest X factor in deciding Game 7?
Emily Kaplan, national NHL reporter: Brayden Point. I mean, the guy has goals in nine straight games, just one away from tying the Stanley Cup playoff record (set by Reggie Leach way back in 1976). Point has been the best player in this series, for either team. The Lightning won 36 games this season without Nikita Kucherov, so they know how to adjust without him. However, I think an individual, gritty effort from a guy like Point is exactly what they need to dispatch the Isles.
Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL writer: Nikita Kucherov. The Lightning did make the playoffs without Kucherov, but his presence in the postseason has taken them from talented third-place finisher in the reconstituted Central Division back to the status of Stanley Cup favorite. As Steven Stamkos put it: “There’s no replacing Kuch. He’s had an unbelievable playoff.” If he can go in Game 7, he brings 27 points in 17 games with him, and allows coach Jon Cooper not to have to double-shift Anthony Cirelli or Yanni Gourde. Most importantly, he brings a point per game on the power play, which looked lost without him in Game 6. You know, on the off chance a penalty is called in Game 7.
Victoria Matiash, fantasy hockey analyst: Andrei Vasilevskiy. The last time Tampa’s starter surrendered more than two goals in a game — three to the Islanders, on June 19 — he followed up with a shutout. The occasion before that, when Vasilevskiy gave up four to Carolina, he bounced back with a 29-save blanking of those same Hurricanes on June 8. Coolly clutch and prone to rebounding with gusto, the reigning Stanley Cup champ hasn’t lost two straight games so far this postseason. I don’t believe he wavers from that trend when it’s all on the line Friday. Whatever the Islanders throw at him, Vasilevskiy will be exceptionally tough, if not near impossible, to beat.
Arda Ocal, In The Crease/SportsNation: Mathew Barzal. He controlled so much of the pace and the puck in Game 6. At times it looked like the entire Lightning core was chasing after him in its own zone, like Timbits hockey kids at intermission (I realize that is a Canadian reference but I’m sticking with it). If the Isles are going to win, they’ll need a spark from Barzal.
Ben Arledge, general NHL editor: Semyon Varlamov. To be clear, I think the Lightning will win on Friday night. But a stand-on-his-head outing from the Islanders’ goaltender could be the biggest reason it doesn’t happen. You can bet on Tampa Bay bringing its offense in this must-win contest, with or without Nikita Kucherov in the lineup. So it comes down to whether or not Varlamov is the best player on the ice. He’ll probably need to be for a New York win — and he has the talent to do it.
What’s your final-score pick for the game?
Emily Kaplan: Tampa Bay, 3-2. I probably should learn my lesson and stop picking against the Islanders, but we’re talking about the Lightning. Since their embarrassing sweep by the Blue Jackets in 2019, the Lightning have gone 12-0 in games following a loss in the postseason. This is the type of game where Andrei Vasilevskiy proves, once again, he’s the best goalie in the world.
Greg Wyshynski: Tampa Bay takes it 3-0. Vasilevskiy has pitched a shutout in the past three games in which the Lightning have closed out a series. My original pick was the Lightning in seven, mainly because I didn’t think the Islanders would ever lose a Game 6 at “the Coli,” but also because the Bolts’ incredible depth and “different hero every night” aesthetic would win out in the end. This remains my pick.
Victoria Matiash: Tampa Bay, 2-1. Partly because Game 7 goes down at Amalie Arena and not Nassau Coliseum — an NHL rink that occasionally doubles as a raucous beer hall with tiered seating — I’m siding with the Lightning in a tight one. The best team in the league, employing the best goalie on the planet, pulls it off when it matters most.
Arda Ocal: Isles win in overtime, 3-2. Josh Bailey scores the winner. The watch party at “the Coli” throws beer cans on the ice in celebration (but seriously, that’s probably not the best idea when people are on the ice … for future reference).
Ben Arledge: Tampa Bay wins 4-3 in overtime. I picked the Lightning in seven games to start the series, and I’m sticking with it. I think the resilient Isles draw even at the end of the third period, but Tampa gets it done in OT to punch its ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. Some bonus gut calls: Jordan Eberle scores a big goal, Brayden Point gets his 15th and 16th of the playoffs and Varlamov makes 40-plus saves.