The first of the big-name free agent shortstops — or, in this case, second basemen, as that was his primary position in 2021 — is off the board, as Marcus Semien reportedly agreed to sign with the Texas Rangers on Sunday for a whopping seven years and $175 million.
Semien was the best in fantasy terms from that group, finishing fourth among shortstop-eligible players and third among second basemen in 2021. He’s also the oldest, having turned 31 in September, so it’s curious to see a rebuilding team like the Rangers turn in his direction. It might be one of the few places where his chances of repeating what was a marvelous past season took a definitive hit.
In fairness, it’s difficult to gauge the impact of Semien’s arrival in Texas without knowing the complexion of the Rangers’ entire 2022 roster. This team also agreed to sign outfielder Kole Calhoun and starting pitcher Jon Gray on Sunday for a combined $61.2 million (reported), and there are indications that the team might still be in the mix for another of the big-name shortstops.
The speed of the team’s rebuild could accelerate with the proper mix of additions, and perhaps the departure from the Toronto Blue Jays’ third-in-runs (5.22 per game) offense to join the Rangers’ third-worst-in-runs (3.86) lineup, not to mention shifting from the Rogers Centre to Globe Life Field, won’t seem quite so devastating.
But here’s how things look today: Semien was primarily a 1-2 hitter for a team that scored bushels of runs last season, and he was able to score the majors’ fifth-most runs (115) despite what was a merely-very-good .334 on-base percentage, while also amassing 84 of his 102 RBI out of those two lineup spots.
He’ll probably be a 3-4 hitter for a Rangers team that had the majors’ worst on-base percentage (.294) and third-worst slugging percentage (.375), meaning the adverse impact on his runs/RBIs potential should be obvious.
Nathaniel Lowe is the only other returning member of the roster who had even a .325 on-base percentage, so this team would need to turn over at least one additional top-of-the-lineup spot to a better on-base and/or run-producing bat in order to buoy Semien’s counting numbers.
Additionally, a weaker offense from 1 to 9 means fewer times the team turns over the lineup, and over the course of 162 games, that will mean a decrease in plate appearances for Semien, and again, to his counting numbers.
Another concern is Globe Life Field’s far greater pitcher-friendly leaning than its predecessor from across the street. The Bill James Handbook actually had it as a better venue for home runs than the Rogers Centre in 2021 (94 to 93, where 100 is considered neutral and 94 would mean that the park deflated home runs by 6%), but I prefer at least a three-year average, where Globe Life had a 92 factor to Rogers Centre’s 111. Globe Life Field has only a season and a fraction of data, so it’s difficult to nail its effects down fully, but it seems clear in its brief time that it’s a more neutral offensive environment, which represents a downgrade for Semien.
All of these things might amount to only small levels of lost production for Semien. Say, 40 plate appearances, three to five home runs and maybe 10-12 apiece runs/RBIs. Considering how everything completely clicked for him in 2021 and that a repeat was already going to be quite a challenge, however, it’s now much more likely that he’ll experience a noticeable drop in his Player Rater finish.
Maybe that’s more of a borderline top-50 overall finisher than the No. 14 where he finished this past year, but I’m at least one round (and arguably two) less interested in paying the premium to get him than I was at the onset of the hot stove season.
As for Semien’s long-term prognosis in Texas, perhaps it’s 2023 (or maybe 2024) that will represent the sweet spot of his deal. The team could make a stronger push back toward contention by then, he’ll have more of a “settled in” case if a rebound argument is needed and he’ll still be close enough to his prime to produce like he did in 2021. Tuck that away if you’re in a keeper or dynasty league and see a buying opportunity midseason, especially if he disappoints in his initial days with the Rangers.