Fantasy baseball is back! Well, ESPN’s game and the dual set of rankings are back and, at some point, pitchers are catchers will do their preseason thing and we will have a season and all will be awesome. You can check out our rankings and they look much as they do annually at this point, in theory. You have your monster star hitters at the top, some five-category gems, then starting pitchers start filtering in and there you have it, the typical rankings.
Wait, something is missing.
Hmmm, what could it be?
Oh yeah, that Mike Trout fellow is missing.
Yeah, it sure has been a while since this Angel in the outfield was not a first round pick — if not the overall first selection — in just about every fantasy baseball league. Trout debuted in 2011. He was the best player in baseball in 2012, so it’s safe to say that by 2013, if you wanted Trout, the cost was significant. He may have been the top pick in your league that year and for the next six or seven years after that. He built a Hall of Fame career and carried many a fantasy manager to much glory.
Now, in 2022, I rank Trout outside of not only my first round, but beyond Round 2 as well. I surely am not alone.
If my category-based league rankings and Tristan H. Cockcroft’s excellent points league rankings appear a bit different than they normally do, it may be because one of history’s top fantasy baseball options, in his age-30 season, seems to be a bit buried.
Well, there is good reason why Trout is no longer a first-round pick for fantasy. While the skills that we see do remain top-notch, there is one notable skill missing. Durability is a skill and Trout seems to lack that one, and the result is we do not get to see enough of him during a season. That’s important.
It’s not only that Trout bowed out of the 2021 season after straining a calf in mid-May. Staying on the field has been a problem for Trout going all the way back to the 2017 campaign. In the last four full seasons, excluding the 60-gamer of 2020, he averaged just 106 games played per year. If anyone else in baseball had done that, rest assured that player would not be in any conversation for the first few rounds.
Perhaps we still have it wrong. Trout just missed Cockcroft’s Round 2 and he slips into the middle of Round 3 for me, right next to his pitching equivalent (New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom). You will not see Kansas City Royals infielder Adalberto Mondesi in the third round for us, and he has skills. They are not “Trout-level” skills, but Mondesi surely has Round 1 upside if he can find a way to suit up for more than 140 games in a season. Alas, he has never come close. Trout used to be durable. Fantasy managers never had to worry about him. He slugged. He hit for average. He stole bases. In 2021, in his 36 games (Mondesi played in 35, by the way!) Trout hit .333 and paced at 30 home runs. Then his season abruptly ended before Memorial Day.
Look, I may just be more risk-adverse than you are, than Cockcroft is, than everyone seems to be. Strong fantasy teams, regardless of the sport, should feature balance in myriad respects, and not just statistically. That means some combination of older and younger players, those that rarely miss games and others that do, and so on. Take some chances, of course, and consider risk versus reward. Trout and deGrom both feature considerable risk in the first few rounds.
For example, I view Milwaukee Brewers OF Christian Yelich (also entering his age-30 season) as a decent risk/reward option somewhere near Round 10. Perhaps he never makes it that far in your leagues. In Round 3? No way. Not anymore. Trout gets the benefit of the doubt, fair or not. His problem is surely different from that of Yelich. Trout still hits. He hits great. He just does not hit enough.
There is also the issue that Trout is no longer a five-category fantasy option. It sure seems unlikely that he will go back to stealing bases, or enough bases that we notice. Trout stole three bases over the last two seasons, covering 89 games, and he has stolen a mere 14 bases over his past 1,000 plate appearances, including 2019. Does that seem like a lot to you? There are 104 players with more since then, including Tony Kemp, Scott Kingery and Christian Vazquez.
OK, enough about Trout. If you want to invest in him in Round 1 or 2 or, in the small chance he slips farther, go for it. Perhaps he plays in more than 140 games for the first season since 2016. What seems more likely is that Trout, who turned 30 while nobody paid much attention last August, frustrates us again.
Who else has an issue with staying on the field? Here are other names that could be values if they fall far enough, but eh, I will likely pass. I am not including guys like San Diego Padres SS/OF Fernando Tatis Jr., but rather, I’m featuring players with a longer history of missing games.
Adalberto Mondesi, 3B, Kansas City Royals: He is not Trout. Mondesi lacks power and any semblance of plate discipline. As with Trout, Mondesi managed to play most of the shortened 2020 season, but he enters his seventh MLB season having never eclipsed either 102 games or 443 PA. Mondesi is an elite base stealer and thus far more valuable in roto leagues, as opposed to points-led versions. He may lead the league with 50 steals! He also may play in fewer than 50 games, too. He’s a huge risk, but to the speed-needy, he may fall far enough to pique your interest.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees: Perhaps this is a tricky one. After all, Stanton played in 139 games last season. He hit 35 home runs. He barely played in the two prior seasons — oh no, do not mention Mark Prior here! — so perhaps it is time to give Stanton and his buddy Aaron Judge a break. Judge played in 148 games in 2021! Do I feel safe with Stanton and Judge duplicating their combined 1,200-plus PA again? Nope, though it is important to note one of them (Judge) is hardly a bargain at his likely ADP. Stanton may be, but please, do not suddenly call him durable.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: He’s had 11 disabled/injured list stints totaling 278 lost games in his seven-year career, according to Cockcroft. That’s hard to believe. Buxton played a month more than Trout did last season and the numbers were, frankly, amazing — something Trout used to do. Buxton hit .306 with 19 home runs and nine steals in 61 games. Extrapolate those numbers and we have a first-round pick! Still, Buxton last reached 300 PA in a season in 2017. If he finds a way to do it again, perhaps he is Trout sans the plate discipline. Good luck with that.
Luis Severino, RP, New York Yankees: Blame the Tommy John surgery if you want, but Severino has thrown just 18 major-league innings over the last three seasons. We recall how well Severino pitched from 2017-18, eclipsing 200 strikeouts in each season, and we hope he returns to that level, but I have a hard time ranking him in my top 300 at all. By the way, for leagues in which this is relevant, he does not have SP eligibility. May that be a harbinger?
Noah Syndergaard, SP, Los Angeles Angels: Thor pitched full-time in 2019 and then had his Tommy John surgery, so perhaps it is unfair to single him out. He is not Severino. Myriad pitchers miss a single season with the UCL surgery. I do rank Syndergaard, though not exactly so well, and would only invest in him if my other starting pitchers were reliable in terms of health.