In light of Tuesday’s announcement of the cancellation of games and postponement of Opening Day, fantasy baseball managers might be lukewarm about their upcoming drafts. How should leagues now handle their drafts? Should they stick to their original dates or reschedule them for a later time when the labor situation is a little more settled? If the answer is to proceed, should any adjustments be made to compensate for the uncertainty?
We asked our the hosts of our ESPN Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast to weigh in on this debate — and debate they did:
Eric Karabell: I’m all for drafting now, as previously scheduled. Perhaps this is because there may not be enough days for my many drafts once we have clarity, and I have plenty of time now — but I’m ready to draft. Also, ask any commish how tough it is to get 10, 12 or however many people to agree on a draft day. You have a day set now, so do it.
I have no idea when the season actually starts, but other than the myriad free agents still needing to find new teams to play for, I don’t think much changes. Sure, drafting today we all run the same risk that free agent Kenley Jansen may not close wherever he lands, but that’s why they call it risk. Drafting now keeps me engaged with baseball. Let’s go!
Tristan H. Cockcroft: But we’ve been here before, haven’t we? This isn’t dissimilar to 1995 (although that’s now far enough in the past that many current fantasy players lack the frame of reference), nor is it much of a different situation we had before the pandemic-altered 2020 season started. There’s similar uncertainty in the extent of Opening Day’s delay and the “guesswork” that comes with that, as well as some differences, as those early drafters did so with an offseason’s worth of transaction knowledge but no clue as to what was coming as far as the season’s delayed start. Ask yourself, for those who drafted pre-pandemic, did you enjoy the experience? Were there legitimate calls within your specific league’s group of managers for a July redraft, after the season’s plans were fully known?
Eric, you’re absolutely right, the logistics alone might need to drive this decision. The LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) and Tout Wars industry drafts will remain on schedule (March 4-6 for LABR, March 19-20 for Tout Wars) largely because it would be nearly impossible to organize that many analysts in the same room (or even the same “Zoom”) on short notice, later, with uncertainty aa to the season’s start date. I’ve got personal leagues that simply cannot find consensus among 15, 12 or even nine managers for a future date, and need to stick with their March dates.
If you have the flexibility to delay, however, I’d strongly urge it, simply because it improves the overall experience. I, for one, did not enjoy quite as much my 2020 leagues that drafted pre-pandemic, rolled with the same stakes, then watched as opt-outs (Buster Posey, David Price, Marcus Stroman), injury-related decisions (Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard) and the regional schedule altered fantasy planning. It’s tough to accept the influence of random chance on fantasy baseball, that is, if it’s coming from an off-the-field event.
Adjustments, or at least a discussion of potentially necessary adjustments, need to be considered within leagues at this point. Ask your leaguemates, can your group find consensus on a later date? In my longest-standing keeper league, we’re planning a “save the date” draft date, with the possibility of further pushing it back only with unanimous consent. Beyond that, do the rules need to be tweaked to address the many remaining free agents? LABR, for example, is restricting the draft availability of the top-12 free agents, with a planned, live free-agent bidding frenzy for those 12 directly before the season’s start. (Note: This is for the 12-team AL- and NL-only leagues, where league landing spots are paramount.) I’m intrigued by that kind of creativity, in this bad situation.
Karabell: Scheduling difficulties aside, perhaps the best way to avoid feeling lukewarm over the pending days, weeks, or even months without the sport is to draft now, so the sport stays on your mind. Be positive! This drama is nearly over anyway! Also, I am not in favor of tweaking any rules in the case that “this fellow signs here” or “that player is traded there.” It’s all part of strategy. Leagues are won and lost by the chances we take. In fact, I’m more intrigued by the thought of drafting early. Do you think doing so is unfair?
Cockcroft: You and I have agreed strongly on league rule sets being firm, thorough and unchangeable midstream, and I know we’re on the same page that the best experience comes when everyone plays under identical guidelines, whatever they are. It’s the old, “tell me the specs upfront and I’m in!” So long as that’s all true of the league, fairness isn’t remotely in question.
What this is about for me, rather, is what kind of experience a fantasy manager wants. LABR has drafted during the first full weekend of spring training games for decades, putting the onus on player scouting and role projection, our particular leagues are super-deep, and I absolutely love the experience. My longtime home points league has historically drafted as close as possible to the season’s first pitch — often even coinciding with it — giving everyone in the room as firm a read on player skills and roles as possible, and it’s roughly average in terms of pool depth. I absolutely love that experience, too.
What don’t I love? When a league drafts, say, 15 days in advance of Opening Day, circumstances interrupt the process, as in 2020, the season’s momentum picks up at a later date, and then that league takes a, “Well, gosh, let’s just roll with what we’ve got since it’s easiest,” approach without at least having a conversation. And that’s not to call out any of my own leagues specifically, because I think on the whole they have done a good job of having those conversations.
I loathe suggesting this, but what if this lockout extends further than two series. Maybe three weeks? A month? Two? Half the season, making it similar to 2020? We just don’t know yet.
Eric, you feel that the best counter to the lukewarm feeling is to stay excited now, but isn’t there a comparable case to be made that the momentum of the arriving new season best stokes those flames — like LABR coinciding with the exhibition season’s start, getting us all fired up for real games (even if they don’t count)?
Karabell: Yeah, you make great points and now I’m just sad that all this is happening. Whether fantasy leagues choose to draft today or wait until the sport returns to normalcy, just get fired up. Communicate. Listen. Do what’s best for your league. Keep your momentum.
Man, I’m ready now. C’mon, baseball!