The Chicago Cubs made their first major move of the spring free-agent frenzy, bringing in outfielder Seiya Suzuki. The five-year, $85 million deal carries the highest salary for a Japanese position player coming to Major League Baseball and the second-largest behind pitcher Masahiro Tanaka’s $155 million contract with the New York Yankees in 2014.
Most projections (including my own) had Suzuki pegged for four or five years at $10-12 million average annual value, with the posting fee on top of that. That would be a big price for a player with no MLB experience, but Suzuki has done all you can ask of him in Japan’s NPB and he’s 27 years old — traditionally the middle of a player’s peak years. The ultimate price (five years, $85 million plus the posting fee, which works out to another $14.625 million) and the team that landed him are both a bit surprising, especially with Kyle Schwarber reportedly agreeing to deal with the Phillies for a bit less than Suzuki on Wednesday and Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos and Michael Conforto all still available.
Rather than the Cubs ending up with a team-friendly deal if his skills completely translate to the big leagues, they are paying as though this will work. Suzuki fits best in right field (with a big arm) but can fill in at center field if needed and those instincts also play on the bases. The real selling point is his mix of contact, approach and power.
There haven’t been a ton of good position players in their prime going between NPB and MLB, so exactly how that hitting ability will play is the question. Suzuki seems likely to be at least a solid everyday player (i.e. 2-ish WAR) but the components are here for a really good player (3-to-4 WAR) if all of his offensive tools play consistently above average.
As a big-market team in a rebuild, the Cubs can still afford to spend on bigger-ticket free agents like Marcus Stroman (three years, $71 million) and Suzuki. Top prospect center fielder Brennen Davis is likely to make his MLB debut in 2022 and slot in with Ian Happ, Jason Heyward and Suzuki to what should become a solid outfield group. The current Cubs aren’t playoff caliber and most of their elite prospects are years away, but there’s enough here for fans to imagine the next contending team.