In just four short weeks, you will know who your favorite team picked — or didn’t pick — in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, as we head into Friday night and Rounds 2 and 3.
But why wait until then when you can learn today which offensive tackle is expected to be the first off the board — Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu? — or why Kayvon Thibodeaux has seemingly gone from the early favorite to be the No. 1 pick to now a potential faller on Day 1?
ESPN NFL draft analysts Jordan Reid and Matt Miller take you through that and more in this week’s buzz notebook. Find out the latest on Neal and Ekwonu after both had their pro days, the latest on Thibodeaux, their takes on six of the top running backs in this class, news and notes from the pro day circuit and more on what we’re hearing as Round 1 nears.
Let’s start with a couple of updates on Thibodeaux, who might not be drafted as high as you think:
Jump to a big topic:
Whom will be the first OT selected?
Landing spots for the top RBs
Notes from pro days this week
Could Kyle Hamilton fall?
What is Carolina’s QB plan?
Big questions: A falling prospect, plus a debate at OT
How far could Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux drop?
Miller: One year ago, as we looked ahead to this draft class, the Oregon pass-rusher was in the mix to be the No. 1 overall prospect. Now, a month from the start of Round 1, Thibodeaux is one of the most polarizing prospects in the class. Following a breakout true freshman season in 2019 in which he posted nine sacks, he struggled through a pandemic-shortened 2020 and had just three sacks in seven games — a stat his supporters would point to as productive considering the attention opposing offensive lines were giving him. The concerns began last season, however, when Thibodeaux left the Ducks’ Week 1 game in a walking boot.
Now, as scouts and general managers assemble their final rankings, Thibodeaux is falling in the eyes of NFL teams as opposed to competing to be the No. 1 pick. Here’s what I know about the reasons behind his drop:
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Production: Thibodeaux didn’t show the quickness and burst expected on his way to seven sacks and 12 tackles for loss — good numbers, but not those expected of a player deemed a front-runner for the No. 1 pick. Beyond those numbers, scouts and front-office execs with whom I’ve spoken have praised his talent but consistently questioned his motor. “Lack of fire” is not the type of label prospects want.
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Interviews: Reporting on prospects’ interviews with NFL teams is always tough because I want to be fair to the player, which is why it’s important to not report information gleaned from a single source. More than half a dozen scouts have told me that Thibodeaux did not impress in interviews with their teams. The word consistently used to describe his interviews is “poor.” That’s a red flag, especially for teams looking to use a premium pick.
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Injury: Thibodeaux sprained his ankle in September, an injury that takes time to heal. One scout charged with evaluating Thibodeaux, however, thought that he was timid after the injury and said that those within the Oregon program agreed.
Of course, the above concerns could be for naught, as it takes only one team to love a prospect. The Lions or Texans could take Thibodeaux at No. 2 or 3, but the word from sources in the league is that Thibodeaux is expected to be drafted outside the top five picks and could even be selected outside the top 10.
Looking at the draft order, if the Seahawks (No. 9) and Jets (No. 10) don’t select Thibodeaux, he could slide further, as Washington, Minnesota, Houston and Baltimore are not expected to select pass-rushers at picks Nos. 11-14. A lot can change once the draft starts and panic sets in, but one month out it’s not unrealistic to think Thibodeaux could be on the board for the Eagles at No. 15.
Who will be the first offensive tackle selected: Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal?
Reid: This is a deep tackle class, with potentially four going in the top 20 picks, but Ekwonu and Neal are in a tier by themselves. Opinions are mixed across the league, however, on who is the top guy.
Having scouted both up close on multiple occasions last season, each is as good as advertised. At 6-foot-4, 320 pounds, Ekwonu is an explosive player who played both guard and tackle at NC State. He turned into a stalwart at left tackle over the past two seasons, showing outstanding play strength and nastiness when finishing blocks. The area that scouts want to see him improve is his over-aggressiveness in pass sets, which leads to him giving up inside pressure.
The 6-foot-7, 337-pound Neal has one of the most impressive frames that you will see for a player at the position. Nimble for his size, his physical tools stand out on tape, but it’s his positional flexibility that has most helped his game. Neal began his career at right guard before transitioning to right tackle and ending his junior season at left tackle. Where could he improve? Balance and consistently finishing are the two elements that have come up most when asking scouts.
The clock for Ekwonu and Neal starts with the Texans at No. 3, but there isn’t yet a consensus on which player Houston will take. Could Neal’s experience playing against SEC opponents every week win out? Here’s what an area scout told me at Alabama’s pro day earlier this week: “I like Neal a lot,” he said. “The fact that he’s done it at a high level in the SEC and played tackle on both sides makes me like him more.” — Reid
How good is this running back class? Let’s find their best fits
Here are the top six backs plus their top traits and potential landing spots:
What he does best: Everything. Hall is a classic three-down back with instant NFL starter ability. Throughout his Iowa State career, he showed both inside and outside vision, speed to break away on chunk plays and the hands to impress in the passing game. His combination of size (5-11, 217) and speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash) to wow teams with his ability to step in as a true featured back.
Where he could fit: The end of Round 1 is Hall’s sweet spot. The Bills (No. 25 overall) could definitely look for a do-it-all back with speed. The same goes for the Buccaneers (No. 27), even after re-signing Leonard Fournette. Should he make it to Round 2, the Texans (No. 37) are a fit. — Miller
What he does best: Walker is a natural tackle breaker. He led the FBS last season with 1,001 rushing yards after contact in his lone year at Michigan State. At 5-foot-9, 211 pounds, he has a thick build combined with a low center of gravity, which makes life difficult for defenders trying to bring him to the ground. His 4.38-second 40 time came as a surprise to many scouts, but it added another positive on his scouting report.
Where he could fit: Mid-to-late second round is the likely range for Walker. There are three running back-needy teams that make sense for him. The Bills (No. 57), Falcons (No. 58) and Bucs (No. 60) could be landing spots. — Reid
What he does best: Vision and decisiveness sit atop the positives column on Spiller’s scouting report. His contact balance is another trait that could be added into the mix, as he has the ability to fight through any hint of contact and burst through the second level to create positive runs.
Where he could fit: In a deep running back class, Spiller is in the bucket of rushers who could go anywhere from the second round to the late third round. His range stretches across a wide margin. The Bills (No. 89), Bucs (No. 91) and Dolphins (No. 102) are all spots where he could be added into a committee and have some type of role early in his career. — Reid
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Isaiah Spiller hits the jets from 48 yards out to extend Texas A&M’s lead.
What he does best: Pierce is a punishing, violent runner who relishes contact and is often the one running away after impact. His instincts as a runner are top tier and pair perfectly with his natural leverage and balance. Pierce’s quick feet help him make defenders miss, but it’s his power that really catches your eye on tape.
Where he could fit: Pierce will likely come off the board in Round 3. The Seahawks (No. 72), Falcons (No. 74) and Chargers (No. 79) are all scheme fits in which Pierce’s power would complement an existing runner. — Miller
What he does best: Versatility is the name of Cook’s game. He can run between the tackles, but his calling card in the NFL will come on perimeter runs and creative ways to use his pass-catching ability. Because of his ability to accelerate and generate explosive plays, he could become a popular target to add to a committee.
Where he could fit: Early-to-mid third round is the likely landing spot for Cook, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes even earlier than that. The Texans (No. 80) and Giants (No. 81) make sense, but his floor could be the Dolphins (No. 102), who have a versatile offensive system in which he could thrive. — Reid
What he does best: Strong is a creative back with game-changing speed (4.37-second 40) and explosiveness. He makes defenders miss with awesome field vision and the speed to pull away for chunk yardage. He’s also strong and wiry enough to bounce off tacklers and keep going after first contact.
Where he could fit: Give Strong to a team running outside zone and watch him run free. The Dolphins (No. 102), Chiefs (No. 103), 49ers (No. 105) or Texans (No. 107) are all fits. — Miller
Notes from pro days for Zion Johnson, Jalen Pitre and more
Reid: Boston College’s Zion Johnson has made a strong case to be the first interior offensive lineman drafted. Tyler Linderbaum (Iowa) and Kenyon Green (Texas A&M) are the other candidates, but when combining what each has shown on tape and the boxes they have checked throughout the pre-draft process, Johnson has cleared the most hurdles. He’s my No. 14-ranked prospect.
There were 31 teams in attendance at Boston College’s pro day, including offensive line coaches from the Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Patriots and Texans. Considering his scheme versatility and positional flexibility along the interior, the Steelers (No. 20 overall), Cardinals (No. 23), Cowboys (No. 24), and Bills (No. 25 ) could be landing spots for him.
Miller: The Baylor pro day was loaded with NFL prospects, but safety Jalen Pitre turned heads after not participating in every drill at the combine. He ran a 4.44-second 40-yard dash, according to scouts at the workout. Pitre ranks No. 46 overall on my big board but could sneak into the late first or earlier portions of Round 2 thanks to his versatility as a matchup defensive back who can play safety or slot cornerback.
Much like Antoine Winfield Jr. from the 2020 draft, Pitre’s versatility is his calling card. He could be a fit in Kansas City (Nos. 29, 30), Cincinnati (No. 31) or Jacksonville (No. 33).
Reid: In a deep cornerback class, the prospect who seems to be somewhat forgotten is Florida’s Kaiir Elam. The nephew of 2013 first-round pick Matt Elam, he has continued the Gator tradition of players in the secondary going on to be high-round picks. At 6-foot-2, 192 pounds, he is a big, physical press-man corner who also has ball skills. He stood on his 4.39-second 40 time at the combine but had a 37.5-inch vertical and ran a 4.21 in the short shuttle at his pro day.
Elam will be an option for teams that run a lot of press-man coverage or schemes that rely on outside corners getting their hands on receivers early in routes. He could sneak into Round 1 — watch out for the Chiefs (No. 29 and 30) and Bengals (No. 31) — or make sense on Day 2, with the Giants (No. 36) as a fit.
Reid: North Carolina running back Ty Chandler is a sleeper I want to make sure to mention because he has impressed me throughout the process. I saw him live against South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl and again during the week of practices at the East-West Shrine Bowl. What stood out most were his quick feet and patience. He has quick-hitting ability when seeking running lanes and has some upside in the passing game.
At 5-foot-11, 204 pounds, he’s a competitive blocker in pass protection and is a natural hands catcher who can run diverse routes out of the backfield. He ran a 4.38-second 40 at the UNC pro day, helping his case as one of the most interesting Day 3 change-of-pace backs. The Dolphins, 49ers and Falcons — teams that incorporate zone-blocking scheme principles — are teams where he could fit.
News, nuggets and everything we heard this week
Reid: I’ve spent the past two weeks on the pro day circuit getting a firsthand look at all of the top quarterbacks, and here’s one of my biggest takeaways: The Steelers are doing an extensive amount of work on the entire QB class. Outside of Sam Howell‘s workout in North Carolina on Monday, coach Mike Tomlin, general manager Kevin Colbert and pro scouting coordinator Brandon Hunt — who many believe is the heir apparent in the GM seat — have all been front and center watching each signal-caller. (Tomlin missed Howell’s workout because of the league meetings.)
Pittsburgh recently signed Mitch Trubisky to a two-year, $14 million deal, but some people in the league believe that adding Trubisky is more about the team having a veteran option in place because of the desire to take a swing on a rookie. The Steelers own the No. 20 overall pick, which means they are likely out of range for Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett. They could stand pat and select a passer who’s available to them at No. 20, or they could get aggressive and trade up.
Miller: One of the hottest topics of the week was the draft stock of Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton following an uneven showing at his pro day. Hamilton reportedly ran a 40-yard dash time in the low 4.7-second range, according to NFL scouts who were on hand. His testing numbers combined with a knee injury that ended his season and his positional value as a safety has many folks in the league saying that he won’t be drafted in the top five picks.
Hamilton is my No. 3 overall player and a prospect I’ve loved since his freshman season. He’s a great leader and playmaker, but he was already fighting a battle at a non-premium position in the eyes of NFL evaluators. It’s possible he falls all the way into the second half of Round 1. Now, it takes only one team to change that, but the consensus around the league is that a drop is expected.
Reid: There are two big pro days next week featuring USC wide receiver Drake London (April 5) and LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (April 6), who both could be top-15 picks. Neither has worked out for scouts during the pre-draft process. London, who is still recovering from ankle surgery that ended his season, is having his his own personal workout. Scouts want to see how he tests and moves around during the route-running portion of his workout.
Stingley had surgery in September for a Lisfranc injury that included a torn ligament in his left foot, and he said at the combine in March that he was “almost close to 100%” in his recovery. He has missed 15 games over the past two seasons, though. Ability isn’t a concern with him — he had six interceptions as a true freshman in 2019 — but his availability and durability are big question marks. Stingley reminds me a lot of former Ohio State corner Marshon Lattimore, who has turned into a high-end corner for the Saints.
Miller: Speaking of the Saints, their signings of veteran quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton might not have been huge, news-breaking signings, but they do point to an interesting situation regarding this class. As one high-level source told me, “The Saints know any quarterback they like won’t be there [at No. 18 overall].” I believe this.
Signing Winston and Dalton gives the Saints insurance and at least solid quarterback play next season. What I also believe is that the Saints are all-in on drafting a left tackle to replace Terron Armstead early in this draft. Mickey Loomis has made moves as general manager to fill the hole at quarterback; he has not done the same on the offensive line.
Reid: Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. suffered a quad strain while training for the combine and wasn’t able to work out for teams. Now, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Booth had surgery last week for a sports hernia, but the injury isn’t expected to keep him from being ready for training camp. Still, that means he won’t have any official testing numbers before the draft, which means he could drop from potential top-20 pick to the second round.
His run likely starts with the Bills (No. 25), Chiefs (Nos. 29 and 30) and Bengals (No. 31) all as possible landing spots. Based on his tape alone, Booth could also be one of the hottest prospects early on Day 2.
Miller: The Panthers need a quarterback. General manager Scott Fitterer knows it, too. Speaking at the owners meetings, Fitterer said, “This will be interesting because the tackles will be the best players on the board. But we do need a quarterback, and at some point you have to take a shot, especially in the top 10. You hate to force it, because when you force it, you could make a mistake.”
This is notable for a few reasons, first that they own the No. 6 overall pick and have that need at quarterback. Coach Matt Rhule originally recruited Kenny Pickett to Temple before becoming the coach at Baylor, and there’s an obvious connection there. What’s also notable is that the Panthers do not own a selection in Rounds 2 or 3 of this draft. This seems to be setting up nicely for them to trade back a few spots, allowing a team with a need at offensive tackle to move up while adding a Day 2 selection and getting into a more comfortable position to draft Pickett or Liberty’s Malik Willis.
Reid: It was revealed this week that medical checks at the combine showed that LSU linebacker Damone Clark suffered a herniated disk that requires spinal fusion surgery. The operation will result in him missing his entire rookie season, but he’s expected to make a full recovery. Clark had been viewed as a late second- or early third-round pick, but he could now be off some teams’ boards entirely.