Projecting the NFL draft’s top wide receivers: A surprise at No. 1, plus a sleeper to watch

Nothing is certain when it comes to the the NFL draft, but the 2022 wide receiver class seems to be more up in the air than most years.

Most prognosticators agreed that Ja’Marr Chase was the top wide receiver prospect last year. This year, five prospects — Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Treylon Burks and Jameson Williams — are heavy favorites to be picked in the first round, but we are not quite sure what the order should or will be. This selection process is hazardous for NFL general managers, who will have many similar wide receivers to choose from and are likely to be intensely second-guessed if they pick a bust.

A statistical analysis of what has correlated to success in the past could be helpful to break up the logjam of closely rated prospects. Enter Football Outsiders’ Playmaker Score, which is a model that projects NFL success for wide receivers based on a statistical analysis of all Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996-2018. See the full methodology at the bottom of this piece here. The output is the average number of regular-season receiving yards that the wide receiver will gain per year over the course of his first five NFL seasons.

Below, we take a look at Playmaker’s top wideout prospects in the 2022 draft and how they match up against each other. We also pick similar historical prospects based on former players who were similar in their Playmaker statistics, along with a sleeper receiver to watch. You might see us compare two physically dissimilar players because they were similar statistically.

Note: Players are listed in order of their projected average receiving yardage.

Projected yards/season, first five years: 737
Scouts, Inc.: No. 23 overall
Similar historical prospects: Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks

According to Playmaker, Burks tops the group of “good but not great” wide receivers in this draft.

The Razorbacks only passed 294 times this season, which means that Burks’ 1,123 receiving yards and 11 touchdown receptions are more impressive than his raw numbers suggest. Arkansas also used Burks successfully in the running game, recording 112 yards on only 14 carries.

Historically, star college wideouts with more college rushing attempts per game tend to have less impressive stats in the passing game than their talent would otherwise produce. Burks, however, edges the other top four prospects in all receiving rate stats despite also having more rushing attempts.

The Razorbacks may not be a top-10 program like Alabama or Ohio State, but that should not matter. Some of the NFL’s greatest receivers came from programs such as Marshall and Central Michigan University. That said, any concerns that scouts have about Burks’ game should be taken seriously.

Playmaker has a better track record of predicting high-rated busts than booms. For example, Playmaker thought highly of Corey Coleman and Stephen Hill, who put up huge numbers in nontraditional offenses. However, all else being equal, Burks’ statistical profile gives him the edge in Playmaker.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 706
Scouts, Inc.: No. 6 overall
Similar historical prospects: Ted Ginn Jr., Jerry Jeudy

Playmaker actually prefers Wilson’s sophomore season to his junior one, as he caught 43 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns when his team only passed 225 times. Wilson’s receiving rate stats are a bit on the mediocre side for a top wide receiver prospect, but he receives a huge boost in one area — the strength of his competition for catches at Ohio State.

The fact that he enters the draft with Olave, another first-round hopeful, is enough to push his projection from “kind of OK” to “actually fairly good.” Although Playmaker does not rate him as highly as Burks overall, the two are close enough that a team which feels that Wilson’s tape is significantly better could not be faulted for choosing Wilson first.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 617
Scouts, Inc.: No. 19 overall
Similar historical prospects: Roddy White, Peter Warrick

Olave has slightly better rate stats than his teammate Wilson and benefits similarly from the “talented teammates” factor.

However, Olave has one big red flag: He enters the draft as a senior. Even after adjusting for projected draft position, underclassmen typically have much greater success in the NFL than seniors do. Although there have been several exceptions (Roddy White), first-round seniors are disproportionately busts (Kevin White, Peter Warrick and Rashaun Woods).

Olave did not seem to benefit much statistically from attending Ohio State as a senior. Like Wilson, Playmaker actually thinks that Olave was best during Ohio State’s shorter 2020 season. And that COVID-19 season may have impacted his decision to return for 2021, which makes the red flag of his senior status a bit less severe. Usually, players who are good enough to come out as juniors will do so, but Olave may have stayed for his senior year because he did not want to leave after a truncated campaign.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 611
Scouts, Inc.: No. 25 overall
Similar historical prospect: Garrett Wilson

That similar prospect is not a typo. From a pure numbers perspective, Williams is probably more similar to Wilson than any other prospect. The two players’ receiving yards per team attempt, receiving touchdowns per team attempt and peak rushing attempts per game are almost identical. The two even played together on the same team (Ohio State) before Williams transferred to Alabama.

Like Wilson, Williams receives a significant boost from playing with talented teammates. However, unlike Wilson, Williams does not join the draft with another first-round prospect.

Rather, Williams joins the draft with John Metchie III and Slade Bolden, who are ranked 64th and 323rd by Scouts, Inc., respectively. Although fine prospects in their own right, their draft value does not quite add up to be the same as a first-round pick.

Accordingly, Williams falls just a bit behind Wilson due to his own lower draft projection and his lower rating in the “talented teammate” factor. Note that Williams is likely to fall a few spots on draft day because of an ACL injury suffered during the National Championship Game; Playmaker does not take this into account.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 514
Scouts, Inc.: No. 14 overall
Similar historical prospects: Darrius Heyward-Bey, DeVante Parker

London is this year’s most controversial Playmaker projection. Although many draft scholars rank London as the top-ranked wide receiver, Playmaker has him significantly lower than other wide receivers projected to be drafted in the top to middle of the first round.

Why is Playmaker so low on London? London’s receiving rate stats are not as good as the typical a first-round wide receiver. In 2021, London caught 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns. However, USC passed 500 times in 2021, meaning London averaged only 2.2 yards per team attempt and 0.014 touchdowns per team attempt. Of course, the big reason that London’s 2021 stats are low is because he missed four of USC’s 12 games.

Because Playmaker only takes the player’s “peak” season, most can make up for an injury-shortened season with a better one from prior years. However, London’s only outstanding season was his short junior one. Notably, London played a full — if short — season as a sophomore and posted poorer yards per team attempt and touchdowns per team attempt than all of the top prospects other than Williams, who was stuck behind Wilson and Olave at Ohio State.

If London is selected in the first round as expected, he will join a very small group of first-round wide receivers who entered the draft with only one good shortened season to their credit. The NFL results of that group — DeVante Parker, Peter Warrick and Travis Taylor — are mixed. The risk is that players like London may have simply been on a hot streak and might have come back to Earth if they were given the full year to play.

In London’s case, his eight games at USC were good but not spectacular. If you prorate London’s numbers, he still falls behind the other four top prospects in touchdown rate and is only roughly equivalent in yards per team attempt.

His projection also suffers from an apparent lack of competition for catches. Unlike Ohio State and Alabama, who have multiple quality wide receiver prospects, no USC wide receiver other than London received a combine invite.

London has a somewhat unusual profile, so it certainly would not be shocking for him to exceed his projection. That said, it is hard to slice the numbers in any way that would suggest he would be a better gamble than the other four high-rated options.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 483
Scouts, Inc.: No. 57 overall
Similar historical prospects: Bobby Engram, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Moore’s draft profile has been rising and now matches his high Playmaker projection. Moore recorded 1,292 receiving yards last season, despite the Broncos passing only 355 times. He also recorded 10 receiving touchdowns, which gives him a touchdown per team attempt rate only slightly below this draft’s more highly touted prospects.

Moore certainly had a lower level of competition in the MAC, but the MAC has also produced numerous star NFL receivers in the past — such as Randy Moss and Antonio Brown. History suggests that Moore has an uphill battle to NFL stardom. Nevertheless, a third-round pick is a small price to pay for a receiver prospect who has comparable numbers to this year’s top wideouts.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 425
Scouts, Inc.: No. 28 overall
Similar historical prospects: Limas Sweed, Devery Henderson

Although Dotson is projected to be drafted late in the first round, Playmaker is less bullish on his prospects than Moore, who is ranked much lower. The fatal flaw in Dotson’s statistical profile is that he comes out as a senior and did not post the eye-popping numbers that other “successful” seniors have posted in the past.

Dotson had 1,182 receiving yards as a senior, but his team passed 451 times. To overcome the senior wide receiver adjustment, Dotson would have needed to post numbers like successful 2015 third-round pick Tyler Lockett, whose 1,515 receiving yards in 415 team pass attempts were enough to mitigate Playmaker’s bias in favor of underclassmen.

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Projected yards/season, first five years: 416
Scouts, Inc.: No. 64 overall
Similar historical prospects: Reche Caldwell, Steve Smith (NYG)

Metchie’s receiving yardage total is similar to Williams’ total, but Metchie falls behind in touchdowns and rushing attempts. Metchie’s receiving numbers are just OK when considered in isolation, but he had a lot of competition for catches at Alabama.

Not only did Metchie have to compete with Williams, but he also had to compete with Bolden, who is also a draft prospect. Metchie has the highest talented teammate adjustment in this year’s class, and it transforms a projection that would otherwise be ho-hum into one that is rather good.

As with his teammate Williams, Metchie is recovering from an ACL injury that could knock him down a few spots on draft day but is not considered by Playmaker.

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Potential sleeper

Projected yards/season, first five years: 432
Scouts, Inc.: No. 110 overall
Similar historical prospects: Jarvis Landry, Sidney Rice

If not for Playmaker’s projected draft position adjustment, Robinson would rank as the fourth-best wide receiver in this year’s draft, falling behind Burks, Wilson and Williamson.

Robinson blossomed after transferring from Nebraska to Kentucky, recording an impressive 1,334 receiving yards on a team that passed only 338 times. He also had some success in the running game, rushing seven times for 111 yards. Robinson has a very similar statistical profile to Burks, and he could serve as a good get for a team drafting in the middle rounds.

Methodology

Playmaker Score is a model that projects NFL success for wide receivers based on a statistical analysis of all Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996-2018, and measures the following:

• The wide receiver’s projected draft position from Scouts, Inc.

• The wide receiver prospect’s best or “peak” season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e. a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a “2.50”)

• The wide receiver prospect’s peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt

• The difference between the prospect’s peak season for receiving touchdowns per team and the prospect’s most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply “0” for a player whose peak season was his most recent season)

• A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility

• The wide receiver’s rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt

• A factor that gives a bonus to wide receivers who played for the same college team, entered the draft for the same year and are projected to be drafted