The NFL draft is finally here, and I have a new and improved set of Round 1 predictions before the fun begins Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and ESPN+). This draft includes so much intrigue — we could see a flurry of trades and surprises in the first round. We also could see five quarterbacks in the top 20 picks. If you’ve been reading our mock drafts for the past few months, though, maybe that won’t surprise you.
As for the Carolina Panthers at No. 1? Well, I think I know the prospect they’re taking, but after four decades of doing this, it’s tough to say anything is a guarantee.
You can check out my final Big Board rankings for the 2023 draft, which includes the top 150 prospects overall and the best at every position. I graded more than 500 total players for this class. You can also check out my favorite prospects at every position, with a few nuggets and notes on 14 guys. I’ll be on ESPN all weekend, and my grades for all 32 teams will be out late Saturday night, once I get some time to digest each team’s draft class.
Let’s get into my final 2023 mock draft, projecting all 31 first-round picks — there’s one less selection this year because Miami’s first-rounder was taken away — based on what I’m hearing and where I see prospects going off the board. There are several changes from my last mock, when Todd McShay and I alternated picks for three rounds, and I made some last-minute changes Thursday morning, tweaking a handful of picks outside the top 10.
I expect some chaos tonight, which is why I projected two trades below. You might be surprised at the landing spots for the quarterbacks. Here’s how I see Round 1.
This mock draft was updated at 8:30 a.m. ET to reflect what I’m hearing. I put an asterisk next to each new prediction. Once I change one pick, the dominoes start to fall, which means even more changes. These are hard!
coverage:
McShay’s final mock draft
Consensus position rankings
Last-minute buzz and rumors
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
I’m confident the Panthers will make the right call here and take Young, my top-ranked quarterback. He’s going to be their face of the franchise for years to come, though they need to focus on putting talent around him so they’re not picking in the top 10 in 2024.
Will Anderson Jr., OLB, Alabama
I struggled with what to do here. Are the Texans really going to pass up a quarterback here? Will they trot out Davis Mills again next season? Could they find a veteran passer via trade (or take one with their other first-rounder?)
I’m hearing Houston will take an edge rusher, either Anderson or Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech), unless it throws everyone a curveball. I like Anderson much more than Wilson, and that’s the direction I’d go.
Projected trade: Titans make a big move up
This is the exact same trade I projected in my two-round mock draft a couple of weeks ago. Tennessee has studied these quarterbacks hard, and it could pounce. Plus, we know Arizona would prefer to trade down. This move makes a ton of sense.
This deal would be costly for the Titans, likely involving pick Nos. 11 and 41 in this draft, a 2024 first-rounder and a top pick in 2025. If they think they can get their quarterback of the future, it could be worth it.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
This would mean the Titans going all-in on a rookie quarterback, potentially trading away Ryan Tannehill and bypassing Malik Willis, the 2022 third-round pick who was drafted by former general manager Jon Robinson. While I like Will Levis (Kentucky) just a little bit more, Stroud is my fifth-ranked prospect overall. He is a stellar downfield passer with pinpoint accuracy and anticipation.
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The highlights that make C.J. Stroud a top NFL prospect
Take a look at some of C.J. Stroud’s highlights from his college career at Ohio State.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
I’ll stick with this match once again. The Colts have an offensive core to help Levis succeed. He’s going to make some mistakes, but he has experience playing in a pro-style offense and is ahead of the curve in going through progressions and reading defenses.
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I just can’t see Seattle passing up its biggest need here. Carter would help it so much in the run game. He’s the No. 1 prospect on my Big Board. The other possibility is edge rusher — Tyree Wilson is still available — though the Seahawks could address it with pick No. 20. There are rumblings about their interest in quarterback Anthony Richardson (Florida), but I’m going with defense.
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
A hole at cornerback opened up after the Lions traded away Jeff Okudah, and they could get the first choice of a really solid corner class. Witherspoon can lock down one side of the field. Detroit could also fill a need with pick No. 18.
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Here’s another spot for a corner, with Gonzalez just behind Witherspoon in my rankings. They are clearly the top two guys. The 6-foot-1 Gonzalez has elite traits and length.
Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
I think Atlanta would love to grab one of the top corners, but they’re off the board in this scenario. The 6-foot-6 Wilson has a high ceiling as a pass-rusher, even if he was inconsistent at times in college. He would fill a huge hole here.
Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Chicago might be hoping Carter falls here; remember when we thought it might take him at No. 1 overall? Instead, the Bears could pivot to offensive tackle and take the top lineman. We could see a run on tackles in the teens.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Eagles might prefer to trade back, but why not take an elite runner/receiver who could help them win now? It might go against the organization’s philosophy to take a running back this high, but the fit is logical, whether it’s at No. 10 or a few spots later. If it’s not Robinson, I thought about tackle/guard Peter Skoronski (Northwestern).
Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
Arizona is another team to watch for one of the tackles, but Van Ness would fill a big need. He could play all over the D-line here, and his positional flexibility is appealing. With the projected trade, the Cardinals now have an extra second-round pick, which would help them fill out their depleted roster.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
I’m going to redo some of this mock draft based on new intel, and it starts with Richardson to Houston. If he makes it to No. 12, I think he could be the pick. The Texans could get their edge rusher and their quarterback in the top 12.
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
When the Packers swapped picks with the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers deal, putting them ahead of the Patriots, my first thought was an offensive tackle. Wright, who started 42 games in college, is a plug-and-play right tackle. Green Bay also could go for top pass-catching tight end Dalton Kincaid (Utah).
Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia
Smith strikes me as exactly the type of edge defender the Patriots would love to have. He could rack up 10 sacks per season for Bill Belichick & Co. I love this fit.
Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern
With Richardson off the board as a trade target for the Vikings, I’m going to stick to my original thinking for the Jets. Skoronski would make a ton of sense as a guard/tackle hybrid. I think he could be an All-Pro guard.
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Here’s another domino from Richardson going at No. 12. If Washington passes on the tackles, it should go for Banks, a fantastic man-to-man cover guy. He ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash and put up a 42-inch vertical leap at the combine.
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Forbes, one of my favorite prospects in this class, is a ball hawk — he had 14 picks over three college seasons, including six pick-sixes. As I wrote before, Steelers fans might be hoping for Joey Porter Jr., whose dad is a Pittsburgh legend, but I have Forbes rated a little bit higher. Pittsburgh has three picks in the top 49, and it needs to come out of Round 2 with starters at offensive tackle and cornerback.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
The Lions really don’t have many immediate roster holes, but I love the idea of coach Dan Campbell going for an old-school tight end to help his offense. Mayer is a willing blocker and has upside as a pass-catcher.
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
I expect the Bucs to be in the tackle market, and they could take the best available guy here. Tristan Wirfs could move from right to left tackle, opening up a void on the right side. Jones was outstanding for the national champs last season.
Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson
Here’s another match I’m sticking with from my two-round mock draft. Murphy is a complete edge defender who can hold up against the run. With Seattle taking Carter at No. 5, this means coach Pete Carroll has replenished his D-line.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
I’m also going to change up my Chargers pick. I thought about running back Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama), but let’s instead go with Flowers, my top-ranked wideout. The Chargers don’t have a playmaker like him, and he could do damage out of the slot.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Smith-Njigba could go earlier than this, but he would really help Baltimore. He could be a star out of the slot. The Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr., but that was just a one-year deal, and he wouldn’t take away reps from Smith-Njigba. This would be a selection to get Lamar Jackson some help.
Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
If Minnesota can’t move up for Richardson or Levis in the teens — and if it doesn’t want to take quarterback Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) here — it should focus on the cornerbacks. Porter is physical and long, and he’ll create more turnovers at the next level than he did in college.
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Joey Porter Jr.’s NFL draft profile
Check out the highlights from Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr.
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
The news that Jacksonville left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a multigame suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drugs policy forced me to rethink this selection. Harrison could start on the left side as a rookie. NFL scouts love his upside.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
With Porter off the board, I’m pivoting to the best available wide receiver. Addison starred out of the slot at Pitt, but he played more out wide after transferring to USC. He has some versatility. He can create yards after the catch and pick up first downs on crossers and slants. The Giants would be adding to their offseason pass-catching overhaul.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Here’s how Dallas could level up its offense. Kincaid is a dynamic pass-catcher who can find open spots in the middle of the field and stretch the seams on vertical routes. He’d help Dak Prescott from Day 1. If the Cowboys don’t take a tight end, keep an eye on the edge rushers.
Will McDonald IV, OLB, Iowa State
I wanted to slot in Addison here, but I see a fit for McDonald in Buffalo. Although he might not be an every-down player as a rookie, his ceiling is high. I’m a big fan of McDonald’s speed game, though he still needs to develop more pass-rush moves.
I also thought about TCU interior offensive lineman Steve Avila, who would fill a hole.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
With Gibbs still available, I think the Bengals would pounce. Joe Mixon was ineffective last season, and he could be a candidate to be released after the draft. Gibbs is a tremendous pass-catcher out of the backfield, but his between-the-tackles ability is underrated. He’d make this offense better.
Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
Smith is getting some first-round buzz because he’s the best run-stuffer in this class. At 6-foot-3, 323 pounds, he can plug a hole. Teams don’t always prefer tackles with limited pass-rushing upside, but he’d fill a need in New Orleans. I moved Smith to No. 30 overall on my Big Board.
Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
This is a fit I’ve liked for a long time. Kancey can wreck games from the interior line, and NFL teams covet that type of player. He’s so quick at the snap. He’s undersized — 6-foot-1, 281 pounds — but he had 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons. He’d fill a hole in Philly.
Projected trade: Rams move up for a QB
The Rams own pick No. 36, and there has been some buzz about their interest in a quarterback in this class. Matthew Stafford has dealt with a couple of serious injuries. Could they make a trade up five spots?
I don’t think it would take that much, although they don’t have a fourth-round pick in this draft. Maybe it would involve No. 36 plus a couple of Day 3 picks, or a third-rounder in next year’s draft.
For the Chiefs, with the top edge rushers off the board, they don’t have to force a pick at No. 31.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Why not do this if you’re the Rams? Stafford had a rough season in 2022. They could get Hooker’s fifth-year option here, and there is a precedent of teams trading into the final spot in Round 1 (Lamar Jackson in 2018).
As I’ve written before, I’m not as high on Hooker as others are — he’s No. 54 in my rankings — but I do think he’ll land in Round 1. This is a fit I could see happening.