Thamel’s realignment buzz: What’s next for Pac-12, Big 12 and Big Ten

There are distinct forces threatening to pull apart the Pac-12, which is staring at the reality that the 2023-24 season may be its last after more than a century of existence.

A few months ago, landing a stout television deal and banding together for the future would have been considered a Houdini act for Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff. And while that remains true, at this point it would also require some 11th-hour theatrics.

Outside of Colorado, the feeling in the Pac-12 has remained the same for months: The preference of the Pac-12 presidents is to remain in a West Coast league.

But is the TV deal Kliavkoff presented — primarily Apple with ambiguous financials because of the unknown incentives — enough? The only certainty as of Thursday morning is everything is fluid.

“Hopefully there’s resolution in the next 24 hours,” said an industry source. “But I honestly don’t know where that resolution is going to be.”

The Pac-12 presidents are expected to meet again on Friday to discuss the deal again. Myriad options are possible by then.

The powers at work here should be considered in separate tiers. The first and strongest is the Big Ten, which sources tell ESPN had a president’s meeting on Thursday morning that authorized commissioner Tony Petitti to explore expansion and bring back more information on Oregon and Washington. No vote was taken, nor has an offer been made. The league is still operating with a hesitancy to completely gut the Pac-12 a year after taking USC and UCLA.

If the Big Ten ends up making those schools an offer, which is expected to be low, and it’s accepted by both, then there will be some clarity — everything will likely fall apart for the Pac-12. Those are the forces of conference gravity: You can’t compete with the Power Two.

Oregon is now viewed as charting the course for the Pac-12’s future. If the Ducks are comfortable with a Big Ten offer, Washington would follow. But there’s also a chance Oregon may be comfortable with the ambiguity of the Pac-12’s deal, stay put, and try to dominate the Pac-12.

Still, the Big Ten is ultimately a goal for both Oregon and Washington. And a transitory financial phase for a multi-generational decision would seem to make sense. But they could stay in a more geographically sensible league and enjoy clearer access to the College Football Playoff. And there remain forces working against Oregon and Washington’s additions, both from the West Coast and the heartland.

There’s a sense the Big Ten’s decision could be tied to what the three remaining Four-Corner Schools — Arizona, Arizona State and Utah — end up doing. But there’s also the idea those schools want to wait and see what Oregon and Washington end up doing.

The fascinating dynamic of hoping someone else goes first underscores one of the concerns that has loomed here — no one is eager to pull the plug on the Pac-12. But everyone is also scrambling so they don’t get left behind. That leaves a landscape filled with paranoia, fake hustle, lies and hopes. Sounds collegial, huh?

Here are the three biggest questions — on everything from Arizona’s next move to the Big Ten’s pursuit of Oregon and Washington to the Pac-12’s path to survival — in a week of potentially landscape-altering news.

1. What should we expect from the Arizona Board of Regents meeting?

Nothing screams realignment season more than fervently following regent meetings. The Arizona BOR meeting called for Thursday evening is intriguing, as that board oversees both Arizona and Arizona State.

The meeting notice references both ASU president Michael Crow and Arizona’s Bobby Robbins and includes “possible legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics.” Arizona Board of Regents vice president of communications Sarah Harper hasn’t returned multiple calls seeking clarity on the meetings.

It’s expected the finances of a move to the Big 12 — and also what staying in the Pac-12 would potentially yield — will be thoroughly vetted. It will also give the board a chance to ask any questions about the move.

Robbins, the Arizona president, has been engaged and front-facing on a potential league change, even doing a nearly hour-long interview with national media members in June. He said then Arizona isn’t legally compelled to go with ASU, and could break on its own. But what’s going to be figured out soon is the political reality of that.

The prevailing thought is a decision for Arizona would be Robbins’ decision, as opposed to a board vote. But operating against the wishes of his board isn’t a wise political move. The board is widely expected to want the schools to move together.

Crow has been at ASU since 2002 and has played a central role in keeping the school’s sleeping giant of an athletic department, asleep. As former commissioner Larry Scott’s staunchest supporter, Crow was a central figure in the league’s failures during his tenure. ASU leaving would mark a Crow failure, something he’s expected to be hesitant to do because of his role in the downfall.

Arizona officials met with the Big 12 in recent months, and Robbins has said publicly that he’s been in touch with Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark. Since the Colorado departure, Arizona has been viewed as the pivotal linchpin. But then the Big Ten emerged as a much bigger power.

Do they move first? Or wait for others to get aboard? That needs to be sorted out.

2. What’s next for Oregon and Washington?

The conversations about the Big Ten expanding continued with the league’s presidents giving Petitti the authority to push forward this morning. Oregon and Washington have long been viewed as Big Ten inevitabilities, with the only variable being time. But is the time right now?

The reasons to add the schools are obvious — strong brands in great markets with successful football history. But this won’t be a slam dunk, and a tricky political landscape looms for Petitti.

Petitti has called around all week to solicit opinions and gather information on Oregon and Washington.

The Big Ten has all the leverage here. Full shares aren’t going to happen. But how much would Oregon and Washington actually go for?

There’s plenty Petitti has to fight through to land the schools, even at a clearance rack price. Part of the appeal of USC and UCLA coming to the Big Ten was the allure of both schools being the only former Pac-12 schools on the West Coast. In theory, that would protect the Los Angeles recruiting market and strengthen the pitch to any prospect West of the Rockies. This was not a negotiated part of the deal, per ESPN sources.

Other than USC president Carol Folt, the central figures who brokered the deal at USC deal are gone. Mike Bohn resigned back in May as athletic director. Former chief of staff Brandon Sosna left soon after the Big Ten deal for a job with the Detroit Lions.

USC lorded over the Pac-12 for a long time, with the league office generally following its whims. It’s a new world in the Big Ten. How much will Folt push to keep its competitive advantage? Is there some value to a few easier trips on the West Coast? These things will be explored.

There’s ambivalence within the Big Ten – including from a few of the blue bloods — about adding Oregon and Washington. The Big Ten is throwing them a lifeline at a discount rate, but it’s not making the Big Ten powers any money in the short term.

This gives Petitti a unique challenge to start his tenure. Does he cash in political capital with his biggest brands to get this to the finish line, pitching the long-term value?

3. How can the Pac-12 survive?

There’s still an avenue here where the league stays together and has some short-term prosperity. The backdrop of the league being on the brink is that it’s arguably on the precipice of the best football season in the league’s 108-year history. USC, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State and UCLA all project to contend for the conference title.

USC’s Caleb Williams, Washington’s Michael Penix, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Utah’s Cam Rising and potential Oregon State starter D.J. Uiagalelei give it the country’s most star power at that position. UCLA freshman quarterback Dante Moore is one of the country’s most exciting prospects.

To make sure that this season isn’t one long wake amid elite football, Pac-12 leaders have fumbled control. They now need the whims of others to keep things together. They need, ironically, USC and UCLA to push back hard on the West Coast additions. They need Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan to show modest protest.

They need the leaders at Arizona, ASU and Utah to focus on the upside of the primary Apple deal, not the ambiguity.

There’s still a path here that the Pac-12 signs a deal, adds a school and presses on. They’d likely add San Diego State at some juncture, depending on that school’s ability to finance its $34 million exit fee.

But for now, the landscape is a bunch of power brokers in some fever dream reconstruction of the Spider Man meme — pointing at each other to move first.

Some resolution is expected in the near future, and whoever blinks amid these staredowns will determine how the collegiate landscape gets reconstructed.