UFC 229’s lightweight title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0) and Conor McGregor (21-3) has been touted as the biggest fight in mixed martial arts history.
A lot of that, of course, is due to McGregor’s star power, Nurmagomedov’s undefeated record and an infamous incident involving a bus in Brooklyn. The hype is real — but so is the fight itself. Perhaps the biggest attraction here is how these two match up stylistically.
ESPN spoke to some of the top coaches in the sport to break down this enticing 155-pound matchup.
Ray Longo, LAW MMA
When Al [Iaquinta] fought Khabib [UFC 223, April 7], Al survived on the floor but was gassed from wrestling with him. We didn’t realize the energy it would sap from Al, being down there. Now, Al was training for a three-round fight against a striker and he filled in on short notice, so that probably had something to do with it.
McGregor’s gas tank has been a little shaky, even when he’s doing well. I’m assuming Khabib is going to walk through a couple of punches and get him to the floor. And that’s the interesting part: Can Conor survive down there, and will he still have energy left after? I think Khabib is so good at what he does, you can’t prepare for it. If you’re an accomplished striker and you bring in these Olympic wrestlers to work with, you could make it worse. You may think you can wrestle with the guy when you can’t.
I do think if Al hadn’t fought him, this would be a real easy fight for Khabib. I do. I believe Al gave people hope, going five rounds with the guy on last-minute notice. [Khabib] almost had the Mike Tyson thing going — everybody was losing the fight with him before it started. But Al made him look human, and I think that gives other guys hope.
I think Khabib gets it down early, wears him out and gets him out of there with a submission in the second or third round.
Mark Henry, New Jersey striking coach
Khabib has the ability to control where the fight goes. If he wants to take him down, I don’t think Conor or anyone else in the UFC has the ability to stop him. You have to try to keep it in the center of the Octagon, because once Khabib sees you against the fence, he’s going to put you up against it and grind you down. After Conor throws a punch, [he should] cut off on an angle. A lot of in-and-out. Feints. Just try to keep Khabib off-balance.
The sound of the bell is when it’s most dangerous for Khabib. When Eddie Alvarez fought Conor [November 2016], our game plan was to wrestle. His wrestling looked great, his cardio was great. I remember Matt Serra was in the locker room warming up his fighter that night, and he saw how fast Eddie’s shot was. After the fight, he said, “Man, I watched him warmup and I thought he was going to do amazing.” But he got hit early, and it clouded his head. First 30 seconds, that’s where anything could go.
I’m friendly with Khabib, and I hope it’s a smashfest. You throw in what Conor has said about his brother and his father. I hope Khabib smashes him, and I think he’ll do it in the first round.
Rener Gracie, Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Academy
Khabib’s ground control is so good, he can immobilize almost on autopilot. And as a result, his conscious effort is on the damage he inflicts from positions of control. When he takes someone down, they’re not getting back up. They’re going to be punished, and that’s pretty much a wrap — for that round.
The advantage in Conor’s situation is that every round starts standing up. Everyone talks about, “If Khabib takes him down, the fight is over.” Yes and no. The round might be over, but the fight is not over. There isn’t a clear path to finishing for Khabib. The ground-and-pound is great, but against someone with decent jiu-jitsu and ground defense, we’ve seen you can survive long enough to ride out the round.
Specifically and historically, the most submittable people on the ground are the people who are least accepting of the ground. When you get taken down, if your entire life is based on getting back to your feet, your opponent knows that. And in your desperate attempt to get back to your feet, you fall into behavioral patterns that are unavoidable, not the least of which is turning to your knees to build the house and stand back up. It’s hard to get back to your feet from your back, and the process of going to your knees puts you at risk to put your back to the opponent. And a high-level grappler will take advantage of that.
It all boils down to what Conor believes is his priority once he gets taken down. If it’s “I have to get back to my feet,” he’ll get submitted. But if it’s “No problem, we have rounds to play,” then he has a great chance. It will look bad from an optics and judging perspective, but having one or two rounds means nothing if you come out and close deals later. Based on the history of all their fights, I have to go with the grappler, Khabib, because it’s close to my heart.
Without a doubt, Khabib has the best top game in the UFC. His ability to hold and throw punches at the same time is something special. He triangles both of your legs, and if he’s above the knee, Conor’s chances of getting up are slim to none.
But Conor released that little hype tape online, and I thought, “F—, he looks incredible.” Without a doubt, I thought Khabib was going to win, but it got me thinking, one of Conor’s best attributes is his ability to fight long. When he fought Chad [Mendes, July 2015], he dropped him with a long cross. When he fought a tall, long guy like Nate Diaz, he only started losing in tight, in the clinch. That’s where Khabib will want to be.
If I had to pick a winner, I would go with Khabib by TKO in the third round. But I’ve seen photos of Conor on the bicycle. Usually that’s building heart rate and gas tank. He’s got a s—load of money; without a doubt, he’s got the best strength and conditioning coaches and doctors. If it gets past the fourth and fifth rounds and Conor is finding an ability to get up, he could have a chance to end the fight with a long cross.
Firas Zahabi, Tristar MMA
The one thing people underestimate is McGregor’s jiu-jitsu, because all he has to do is survive. If he gets taken down, all he has to do is survive a couple minutes, and the fight gets stood back up.
I think snatching a single-leg takedown is more challenging than landing a counter left hand, because the fight starts standing up and the cage is so big. The environment is really in McGregor’s favor. If this were a small ring, I’d bet the house on Khabib. And when you’re fighting a southpaw like McGregor, the single leg is there. If [Nurmagomedov] shoots very low and keeps everything low, he may miss occasionally, but he won’t get countered.
That said, McGregor is going to have to force Khabib backward. Here’s something people don’t talk about. Both of these fighters are forward, pressure fighters. You remember when Khabib fought Edson Barboza? He was literally jogging toward him. Whoever backs up first is probably going to lose. It’s going to be a bad sign. It’s a sign they are breaking. And don’t forget: Khabib has excellent judo in addition to his wrestling. So, if they clinch, he’s going to throw McGregor around.
The first round is going to let us know. Either it’s a quick KO for McGregor in the first round, or Khabib takes it away after that. It’s 50-50. Whoever wins is going to win head and shoulders going away. What would surprise me is a see-saw battle, because once one of these fighters funnels it into his realm, the discrepancy will be too large to overcome.
Henri Hooft, HKickboxing striking
Conor has been out for awhile. I don’t know if he’s the same Conor that he was when he left the sport. I don’t think it’s easy to go away for awhile, come back and fight someone who has been fighting often.
If you’re not in the right mindset when you fight Conor, it’s a problem. With that kind of power, you cannot make even the slightest mistake. Khabib is the same as everybody — he has emotions, but people from his part of the world are good at hiding emotions. Some of these other guys get so emotional, and against a sharpshooter, you’re going to be on your back.
Against a wrestler, I tell my guys to use their hands first, before they throw any kicks. Conor’s stance is very wide, and he does that little step, step back, counterpunch. I like that a lot about him. If Conor can get in Khabib’s mind and make him think he can stand with him, that’s a good thing. A good counterstriker sets you up. Boxers will throw the jab for six rounds, and in the seventh round, they throw a 1-2, and you’re on your ass. It’s simple stuff, but it’s difficult to do. It’s the very small steps. The guy thinks you’re moving forward, but the moment he does, you step back and let that guy overcommit. If you give Khabib the feeling he can touch you with a punch, it’s your game.
You need to be so good and so specialized in what you do, it really doesn’t matter who you fight. Khabib knows how to fight. Conor knows how to fight. They need to train their own style so well that on that one night, with everybody watching, it all comes together. Feel good in your style, instead of thinking about what the other guy is going to do. No. If I fight, I know what the other guy is going to do, because I’m going to make him do it.
At the end of the day, if I have to pick somebody, Khabib has been more active. It’s difficult once you’ve made it big and you’ve made a lot of money, although Conor seems to enjoy this. It’s difficult to pick, but I have to give Khabib the edge: TKO, Round 4.
Jason Parillo, RVCA VA Sport
Conor has tremendous footwork. He’s able to hit a lot of angles, and I think he’s going to be tougher to take down than Khabib thinks. I know Chad Mendes took him down a couple of times, but that was years ago. And especially when you know this guy is trying to take you down, it’s not an easy thing to train for, but you know it’s only one dimension coming your way.
You can’t let the threat of the takedown affect your punches. I had a situation like that when I had Michael Bisping against Tim Kennedy [April 2014]. We knew that was his main game, and it did affect us. It’s a concern as the striker because you’ve got to make yourself a little vulnerable in order to throw with confidence. Obviously, it affects your rhythm on the feet and how you’re putting stuff together. But you saw this last kid Khabib fought, Iaquinta, he went right at him with a low level, which I liked. He showed you can go in there and stop a takedown.
You wonder about the situation with Conor. Inactivity isn’t the best thing for a fighter. In fairness, the development of his reflexes probably went to another level being in there with a boxer the caliber of Floyd Mayweather last year, and the sparring partners he worked with I’m sure were high-level boxers. He also got very used to fighting in close quarters, working for that fight. Conor seems to mentally separate himself from the rest. My guess is that even though this kid made $100 million, he always knew he was going to go back in there and fight, but I don’t know the guy personally.
Khabib picked Holly Holm to beat my fighter, Cris Cyborg, so I’m going to pick Conor McGregor [laughs].
There are a lot of questions to be asked with Conor. How good is his takedown defense? How much has it improved? The only time we really saw him fight an aggressive wrestler was Mendes, in a short-notice fight … and he got taken down a handful of times. I think we can speculate on whether he’s gotten better in that area, but the only people who really know are in his camp.
I favor Khabib, but I’ve been wrong a lot with Conor. He surprised me in the Mendes fight. He surprised me in the Jose Aldo fight [December 2015]. He surprised me in the Dustin Poirier fight [September 2014]. I’ve bet against him and lost several times.
But I think Khabib will go in looking to do what he always does. It’s similar to [welterweight] Colby Covington. Those successful grapplers are having a lot of success with heavy pressure and a good gas tank. They may throw wild punches just to keep you on your guard and on the defense, which allows them to push you to the fence and get you on your back.
Duke Roufus, Roufusport MMA
It’s a pick ’em fight. There’s a big question on both ends. Has Khabib been hit by someone who can hit like Conor? Has Conor fought someone who can apply pressure like Khabib?
Historically, the grappler has the advantage. I learned that a long time ago in this sport. It’s like having Babe Ruth at the plate. If he hits that super home run, that’s awesome, but the higher percentage is an out. Even though I love striking and that is my background, I have to respect the true facts and numbers of my sport, and you can’t deny the consistency of the grappler.
Khabib is going to stay low in his stance and throw hooks and overhands to close the distance. If he straight punches with Conor, he’ll get picked apart. He needs to run at Conor right away. The fight, historically in boxing, I would use as kind of a blueprint is Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier I. You saw Frazier pressure and suppress Ali against the ropes. He gave him no space to use the straight punches he was great at.
I expect pandemonium from the bell — and to be fair, Conor has thrived in pandemonium before. Khabib has to make it chaotic. I can’t pick who’s going to win.
I see Conor getting Khabib exposed on a takedown and catching him on the way in with the left hand. I’ve seen some openings in Khabib’s last three fights that I’m pretty sure Conor sees as well. Conor by knockout in the first round.
Khabib is undefeated, so it’s hard for me to criticize anything about him, but I’ve seen him get a little exposed. Conor wants to be stationary enough to invite the shot but mobile enough to avoid it and catch him on the way in. And that comes down to that sixth sense — awareness, that anticipation. Conor is the master of that. Back foot, step, cross, boom. Even when Khabib sets up his shots with punches, he can get countered on those punches. I see Conor stopping him.
My brain, as a coach, analytically and scientifically, wants to say Khabib just goes and wipes him out — but we know there’s this element of human error that doesn’t always allow that to happen. My heart is going to go with Conor. Khabib makes mistakes sometimes on his way in, and Conor is unforgivable. I’ve always thought that about Conor. I studied Conor four years ago, when he was supposed to fight Cole Miller. I always knew this guy was a sharpshooter. Some people underestimated him and found out the hard way. And you know what? Khabib could still underestimate him. He needs to stay sharp.
The first two minutes will determine the fight. If Conor touches him easily and early, he’s going to knock him out in the first round. If Khabib gets his hands on him early, he’s going to finish him within three rounds. The thing about Conor is his offensive attack starts way before the fight starts. That’s how he got Jose Aldo. That’s how he got Dustin Poirier. What he did with Khabib, bringing up his family — his father, his brother — that might get under his skin more than just talking about his country would. Maybe it won’t, but it definitely could.