Breaking down the Talladega starting lineup

TALLADEGA, Ala. — To block or not to block.

That is what drivers will have to decide to do throughout the playoff race Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.

Remember back in Daytona in July when Brad Keselowski said the next time a driver blocks when he doesn’t have room and the driver behind either has to lift or wrecks, Keselowski would just run through him and not lift?

Keselowski still has those thoughts on his mind.

“Oh yeah,” Keselowski said Saturday after qualifying. “It will factor into tomorrow.”

Keselowski was mad at William Byron after Daytona, and Byron crew chief Darian Grubb said he talked to those drivers who were critical of his rookie shoe.

“I actually confronted the individuals that were blaming him for the blocking the next weekend in Kentucky,” Grubb said. “That was very much a bullying move that they had done trying to push the new rookie down and try to keep him down. He did absolutely nothing wrong. He did nothing out of the ordinary.

“He did an incredible job leading the race and putting himself in position to win. They didn’t like that. So they tried to bully him and tried to cover it up by bullying him and making him look like the bad guy and that 100 percent was not the case.”

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who also was criticized for being aggressive at Daytona, isn’t thinking about that race.

“I don’t really care about criticism,” Stenhouse said. “I think we’re all in this business and you get criticized for something all the time. I feel like a lot of fans criticize you. They’re the ones watching in the grandstands and they don’t change the way I race.

“I’m going to go out there and put on a show and try to put our [car in] Victory Lane and that’s really my only concern for our team. Now, being that it’s a playoff race, it’s always a little bit different. You always try and give those playoff guys a little bit of extra room and be a little more cautious around them.”

This race is the second race of three-race round of 12 (quarterfinal round). An elimination race is set for next week at Kansas Speedway. The four playoff drivers winless in the round and the lowest in the standings will be eliminated.

Playoff drivers ranked by average finish at Talladega: Chase Elliott (13.2), Brad Keselowski (15.1), Kevin Harvick (15.1), Kurt Busch (15.5), Clint Bowyer (16.1), Aric Almirola (17.2), Joey Logano (17.7), Kyle Busch (20.5), Ryan Blaney (20.5), Martin Truex Jr. (21.3), Kyle Larson (21.3), Alex Bowman (27.3).

Playoff drivers who have won Cup races at Talladega: Keselowski (5), Logano (3), Bowyer (2), Kyle Busch (1) and Harvick (1).

Here is how they will line up Sunday for the 1000Bulbs.com 500.

1. Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Ford): Busch has a 21-point cushion on the current playoff cutoff. Busch has never won at Talladega, but he was second in April and has four career third-place finishes at the track. He has top-10s in six of his past eight Talladega starts, which came after a string of eight finishes outside the top 10.

2. Clint Bowyer (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford): Bowyer is 10 points behind the current playoff cutoff. Bowyer hasn’t finished the past two Talladega races, but he also has a couple of good races to think about: He won back-to-back October races in 2010 and 2011.

3. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford): Harvick has a 68-point edge on the current playoff cutoff and a 58-point edge on eighth in the standings. If he keeps that margin, he will clinch a spot in the next round. He has five top-10s in his past nine Talladega starts. His sole Talladega victory came in April 2010.

4. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing No. 10 Ford): Almirola is 10 points behind the current playoff cutoff. He can erase the bad taste of the Dover finish with a win at Talladega — he also probably doesn’t forget the bad taste of the Daytona 500, where he was leading going into the final lap. He has finishes of eighth, fourth, fifth and seventh in his past four Talladega starts. He also won the Xfinity race in May 2017.

5. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet): With the win last week at Dover, Elliott has nothing to worry about as far as advancing to the next round as he already has one of the eight spots. He was expected to qualify well as he has started top-5 in four of his five Talladega starts. He enjoyed his best Talladega finish in April when he came in third.

6. Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet): It was a big week as it was announced that Johnson would split from crew chief Chad Knaus after the 2018 season. They have won at least one race every year in their first 16 years and have six races left to win one together in 2018. Johnson has two career wins at Talladega, in May 2006 and April 2011.

7. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet): Bowman is 34 points out of the current playoff cutoff, so he is looking at a likely must-win situation over the next two weeks. He likely has the car capable of running well — he led 26 laps and finished eighth at Talladega in April 2018.

8. William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet): Byron hasn’t finished his past two starts at Talladega, in both Xfinity and Cup. He led 14 laps in April before finishing 29th.

9. Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota): Busch has a 63-point cushion on the current playoff cutoff and a 53-point cushion on eighth, meaning he has a realistic possibility of clinching a spot in the next round Sunday. Busch won the April 2008 race at Talladega and has been close with a pair of second-place finishes and a pair of third-place finishes. In his past eight Cup starts at Talladega, he has two top-3 finishes and three finishes of 27th or worse.

10. Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota): Hamlin won in May 2014 at Talladega. Since then, he has led laps in every race but has just one top-5, a third in October 2016.

11. Martin Truex Jr. (Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota): Truex has a 36-point cushion on the current playoff cutoff. That’s the good news. The not-so-good news: He hasn’t finished better than 23rd and hasn’t been running at the finish in his past four Talladega starts.

12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Roush Fenway Racing No. 17 Ford): Stenhouse earned his first career Cup win in May 2017 at Talladega and was fifth last April. The fall race at Talladega has been up-and-down for Stenhouse, who was third in October 2013, didn’t make the race in 2014, and has had finishes of ninth, fifth and 26th the past three years.

13. Daniel Suarez (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota): Suarez is a decent restrictor-plate racer. He finished 10th in April.

14. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford): McDowell hasn’t finished the past three Cup races at Talladega. His career-best at Talladega is 15th.

15. Erik Jones (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota): Jones just wants to finish. He has not finished any of his three Cup starts at Talladega with a best of 33rd.

16. David Ragan (Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford): Ragan returns to the site of his May 2013 win for Front Row Motorsports. Since then, he has had four top-10 finishes, including in each of his past three Talladega starts.

17. Bubba Wallace (Richard Petty Motorsports No. 43 Chevrolet): Wallace, who placed second in the Daytona 500, was 16th at Talladega in April.

18. Brad Keselowski (Team Penske No. 2 Ford): Keselowski has a 21-point edge on the current playoff cutoff and enters Talladega as one of the favorites thanks to his five career Cup wins. He won his first Cup race at Talladega in April 2009 (the Carl Edwards wreck) and is the defending champion of the fall 2017 race. He crashed out of the race in April.

19. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske No. 12 Ford): Blaney has a 10-point cushion on the current playoff cutoff, and he probably would be happy with that leaving Talladega. He doesn’t have a top-10 in his past four Talladega starts and has failed to finish two of those races.

20. Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford): Logano has a 31-point cushion on the current playoff cutoff. He obviously loves Talladega, with three victories, including in April. He has led 129 laps in the past two Talladega races and 210 laps in the past six.

21. Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet): The Daytona 500 winner has failed to finish his past three Talladega starts.

22. Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet): Newman isn’t a big fan of this type of racing, but he has two solid finishes (second and ninth) in his past two Talladega starts.

23. AJ Allmendinger (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet): Allmendinger hasn’t finished his past three Talladega races, so if this is his last race at Talladega, he probably won’t shed many tears.

24. Trevor Bayne (Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford): Bayne was third in this race a year ago. The 2011 Daytona 500 winner could use another victory to boost his job search.

25. Regan Smith (Leavine Family Racing No. 95 Chevrolet): Smith will drive this car through the end of the season. He won the October 2008 race at Talladega. Oh wait, he went below the yellow line in making the winning pass, but he feels like (and many others agree) he won that race.

26. Chris Buescher (JTG Daugherty Racing No. 37 Chevrolet): Buescher has finishes of 15th, 17th and 11th in his past three Talladega starts.

27. Matt DiBenedetto (Go Fas Racing No. 32 Ford): DiBenedetto already has had a big week as it was announced he signed his 2019 deal with Leavine Family Racing. He was 19th at Talladega in April.

28. Brendan Gaughan (Beard Motorsports No. 62 Chevrolet): Gaughan is running just Daytona and Talladega this year. He has finishes of 28th, 22nd and 12th in those races.

29. Ty Dillon (Germain Racing No. 13 Chevrolet): Dillon has finishes of 13th, 11th and 15th in his Cup starts at Talladega.

30. Paul Menard (Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford): Menard has three career top-5s in 24 Talladega starts.

31. Jamie McMurray (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet): McMurray won the November 2009 race at Talladega as well as the October 2013 event. Since that 2013 win, he has two top-10 finishes (both top-5s). And he had one big crash in practice in April.

32. J.J. Yeley (BK Racing No. 23 Ford): The team is running a Ford from the stable of Front Row Motorsports, which bought the BK Racing assets in August.

33. D.J. Kennington (Premium Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet): Kennington finished 20th at Talladega in April.

34. Kyle Larson (Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet): Larson is 12 points behind the current playoff cutoff, so he needs to have a good day to avoid a must-win situation at Kansas. That means he needs to finish. In the past three races at Talladega that he finished, he placed sixth, 12th and 13th.

35. Jeffrey Earnhardt (Gaunt Brothers Racing No. 96 Toyota): He has three Cup starts at Talladega with a best of 28th.

36. Ross Chastain (Premium Motorsports No. 15 Chevrolet): Chastain was 25th in the race in April. He also was third in the 2013 truck race at Talladega.

37. Joey Gase (StarCom Racing No. 00 Chevrolet): Gase finished 27th in the race in April and 21st at Talladega in May 2017.

38. Landon Cassill (StarCom Racing No. 99 Chevrolet): Cassill’s career-best finish came in the October 2014 race at Talladega when he finished fourth.

39. Cody Ware (Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Chevrolet): Ware is making his third Cup start of 2018 and first since June at Sonoma.

40. Corey LaJoie (TriStar Motorsports No. 72 Chevrolet): LaJoie has just one Cup start at Talladega, a 27th-place finish in May 2017. He failed technical inspection and will start 40th, rather than 39th.