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Nick Parkinson
WBA “regular” welterweight titleholder Manny Pacquiao defends his secondary world title against Adrien Broner at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday in what should be an intriguing contest.
How much does Pacquiao have left in the tank? And can Broner return to his previous form despite out-of-the-ring problems? ESPN breaks down the fight.
Speed
Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs), 40, is slowing down with age. The question is: In his 70th professional bout, will his hands still be fast enough to dazzle an opponent 11 years younger than him?
“There is no change, so our speed, our moves and punching power are still there,” Pacquiao said recently.
But most would say Pacman’s best period, when his hands were at their blurring best, was from 2005-12.
Pacquiao succeeded in silencing those who said he was ready for retirement, however, when he battered Lucas Matthysse in a seventh-round stoppage win in July.
Not many boxers have managed to fight on after 40 years of age and stay at, or rise again to, the top of their division. Bernard Hopkins was unusual in retaining his powers in the ring after 40.
Pacquiao — boxing’s only eight-division world champion — might not be the force he once was, as his performance against Jeff Horn in July 2017 showed, and he ranks below (at least) American Errol Spence Jr. and Terence Crawford in the welterweight division.
But he showed, in dealing with Matthysse, that his timing and hand speed are still intact.
When it comes to hand speed, Broner (33-3-1-1 NC, 24 KOs) is no slouch himself. Earlier in his career, he exhibited impressive skills that led to him winning world titles at four weight divisions.
Some think he was at his best at the lighter weights and has slowed down with his rise through the weight classes.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Power
Though it would be a huge surprise if Broner out-punched Pacquiao, it would be less shocking to see him knock out the Filipino.
A defining factor in the fight will be how well Broner deals with Pacquiao’s southpaw stance. The American has a good track record against southpaws (6-0, with five KOs), about which he has not been coy.
“Look at my résumé, what do I do to southpaws? I stop them. Going into this fight, I’m very confident,” Broner said.
Pacquiao’s latest defeat, a decision to Australian Horn, was disputed, as was his points loss to Timothy Bradley Jr. in their first fight in 2012.
But Juan Manuel Marquez left no doubt about the outcome when he left Pacquiao face down and detached from his senses in a sixth-round knockout win in September 2012.
Like Marquez did to devastating effect, Broner will look to land a big right hand over the top of a jab for a spectacular finish.
Broner’s recent form does not, however, suggest he has a knockout in him, and Pacquiao has also been short of stoppage wins.
Pacquiao floored Matthysse three times, but that was his first stoppage win since he halted Miguel Cotto in the final round in 2009, when Pacquiao was at the height of his powers.
Advantage: Even
Stamina
When he faced Jessie Vargas, Broner was busier than he has usually been, and he will need to be at the same level — or better — if he is to claim his biggest win.
Pacquiao’s stamina was never in doubt against Matthysse, and he landed an overwhelming 95 punches to 57, according to CompuBox, which boosted his stock after he had looked sluggish against Horn.
Boxers can age suddenly in the ring, and if this is the fight in which Pacquiao’s legs desert him, Broner will be able to pick him off en route to a points win.
Pacquiao has had problems with his calves cramping in previous fights, like against Marquez, and his corner must be concerned about the possibility of a repeat.
This is a close call — and perhaps the biggest call in deciding who wins this fight.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Tactics
Broner, who is unlikely to out-punch or out-work Pacquiao, will look to catch the Filipino with fast counters. That is perhaps his best route to victory, especially if a frustrated Pacquiao falls apart in the latter rounds.
If things do not go as planned for Pacquiao, he could find himself under pressure to land more punches in the final quarter of the fight, thereby perhaps leaving himself open more.
But the presence of Freddie Roach, the experienced American coach, back in Pacquiao’s corner suggests the Filipino will be tactically spot on.
Broner’s three defeats came against his best three opponents — Mikey Garcia, Shawn Porter and Marcos Maidana — when he failed to find an alternative way to win.
Broner will have to produce a performance he has never shown before, or at least not for a long time, to defeat Pacquiao.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Form and focus
Broner is not in startling form, but what is more of a concern for him and his fans is that he has seen a courtroom more often than a boxing ring in recent years.
Just this month, Broner reportedly had appointments at two separate courts in two separate U.S. states on the same day.
In Georgia, Broner was due to face sexual battery charges, which stem from his arrest in February when he allegedly groped a woman at a shopping mall against her will.
And in Ohio, Broner faced three charges of sexual imposition, gross sexual imposition and abduction.
Broner, who has been arrested for a variety of other offenses in the past, was also arrested two days before Christmas in Florida for failing to appear in court over charges related to his 2017 arrest for speeding and driving without a license, registration and proof of insurance.
If convicted, Broner faces a jail sentence. It seems inconceivable that this has not been a distraction for the boxer who calls himself “The Problem.”
Pacquiao has his own distractions — a political career back in the Philippines — but he has been training in Los Angeles for the first time since 2016 and is reunited with his long-time mentor Roach, who did not work with Pacquiao for the Matthysse fight.
Also weighing against Broner is the fact that his three defeats have come in the welterweight division. He has yet to convince doubters that he truly belongs in the division.
Broner was held to a majority draw in his last fight against Vargas, whom Pacquiao outclassed in November 2016.
The form that matters for Saturday’s fight still lies in Pacquaio’s corner, despite his age.
Advantage: Pacquiao