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Emily KaplanESPN
With just a few days left of the regular season, it’s time to check in on who met expectations, who exceeded them, and of course, who were our biggest disappointments.
For this week’s Power Rankings — voted on, as always, by ESPN’s panel of experts — we looked at how teams fared compared to their preseason projected standings point totals from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
How we rank: The ESPN hockey editorial staff submits polls ranking teams 1-31, and those results are tabulated to the list featured here. Teams are rated through Tuesday night’s games, taking into account overall record, recent success and other factors, such as injuries.
Previous ranking: 1
Preseason over/under: 107.5
Points on April 4: 124
Even good teams can overachieve. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have combined for the most points (312) by a trio since the 2000-01 Penguins (Jaromir Jagr, Alex Kovalev, Martin Straka).
Previous ranking: 3
Preseason over/under: 93.5
Points on April 4: TK
The Flames’ goaltending didn’t derail them, and the offense was far more explosive than Vegas expected, even without significant contributions from their big free agent signing, former Golden Knight James Neal.
Previous ranking: 2
Preseason over/under: 102.5
Points on April 4: 105
Boston finished right about even with expectations. Much credit must go to coach Bruce Cassidy, who had to juggle plenty of injuries, especially an oft-depleted blue line.
Previous ranking: 4
Preseason over/under: 97.5
Points on April 4: 102
Perhaps Vegas was swayed by how hard the Caps partied after clinching the Cup in the Sin City, and for the summer that followed. It’s not the first time — nor will it be the last time — someone underestimates Alex Ovechkin‘s resilience.
Previous ranking: 7
Preseason over/under: 106.5
Points on April 4: 99
The Leafs are going to fall short, and some uninspired hockey down the stretch hasn’t helped. Now that the inevitable first-round series against Boston is cemented, they better shape up fast.
Previous ranking: 11
Preseason over/under: 82.5
Points on April 4: 99
The Islanders are going to finish as this season’s biggest overachievers, and the most noticeable difference is defensive structure and goaltending. And maybe that chip on their shoulder.
Previous ranking: 5
Preseason over/under: 101.5
Points on April 4: 97
The Sharks aren’t going to hit the over and they have played some unexciting hockey since being locked into the No. 2 seed. We remain especially concerned about their goaltending in the playoffs.
Previous ranking: 9
Preseason over/under: 102.5
Points on April 4: 97
No matter how many roller coasters the Penguins ride during the season, they always seem to end up here: looking dangerous when it matters, poised for another long playoff run.
Previous ranking: 6
Preseason over/under: 106.5
Points on April 4: 96
Without their top two defensemen for long stretches, and a slump from sniper Patrik Laine, the Jets never fully clicked this season.
Previous ranking: 8
Preseason over/under: 105.5
Points on April 4: 96
The Preds won’t reach above the 105-point mark for a few reasons, though Viktor Arvidsson wasn’t one of them. Arvidsson (33 goals in 56 games) almost became the franchise’s first 40-goal scorer. If only he’d been healthy all season.
Previous ranking: 10
Preseason over/under: 101.5
Points on April 4: 93
Imagine that: Vegas was wrong about Vegas … again. When the Golden Misfits shocked us all last season, the bar might have been set too high for an encore, even though they still look quite good.
Previous ranking: 12
Preseason over/under: 96.5
Points on April 4: TK
At first it looked as if the Blues would hit way under (they were dead last in the NHL on Jan. 3). Their pace over the past two-plus months would have put them way over. Instead, they finish right around where Vegas expected.
Previous ranking: 14
Preseason over/under: 97.5
Points on April 4: 94
So it looked as if the oddsmakers correctly projected the Blue Jackets as a borderline playoff team. Few predicted how big the stakes would be right now for GM Jarmo Kekalainen.
Previous ranking: 13
Preseason over/under: 85.5
Points on April 4: 95
The “bunch of jerks” exceeded expectations, and one of the biggest reasons why is goaltending. Stepping in for Scott Darling, Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney have been sensational.
Previous ranking: 15
Preseason over/under: 80.5
Points on April 4: 94
The Canadiens will finish more than double digits above their projected point total. It helps that new forwards Max Domi and Tomas Tatar overperformed compared to their previous stops.
Previous ranking: 16
Preseason over/under: 94.5
Points on April 4: 91
The Stars fended off some early season drama and adjusted to yet another new coach, finishing just about at expectation level. Goaltending kept Dallas afloat when the offense (fourth worst in the league) sputtered.
Previous ranking: 17
Preseason over/under: 89.5
Points on April 4: 88
Few teams have it better this season than the Avs, who slide into the playoffs with a point total in the low 90s — and still have the highest probability of winning the Jack Hughes sweepstakes thanks to owning Ottawa’s draft pick.
Previous ranking: 18
Preseason over/under: 81.5
Points on April 4: 84
The Coyotes exceeded expectations and went on an improbable playoff push through March. Unfortunately, the magic seemed to run out at the end, but what a ride it was.
Previous ranking: 20
Preseason over/under: 95.5
Points on April 4: 83
The Wild are missing the playoffs, and finishing below expectations, because they couldn’t score enough goals. GM Paul Fenton began shaking things up at the trade deadline, but by then it was too late. Expect that process to continue this offseason.
Previous ranking: 22
Preseason over/under: 94.5
Points on April 4: 84
The Panthers might finish as low as double digits under their projected point total. You knew it was bad when the rumblings about who they’d target in free agency began … in February.
Previous ranking: 19
Preseason over/under: 97.5
Points on April 4: 82
If the Flyers didn’t have such a poor start — and have to cycle through so many goaltenders before calling up Carter Hart — they might have hit their mark. That’s a lot of ifs, though.
Previous ranking: 21
Preseason over/under: 85.5
Points on April 4: TK
Inspired performances by the stars — Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and we’ll now include Alex DeBrincat on that list — kept the Hawks afloat. A leaky defense derailed them.
Previous ranking: 24
Preseason over/under: 77.5
Points on April 4: 80
The Canucks hit the over, and the success can largely be pinpointed to one transcendent player: rookie Elias Pettersson, the inevitable Calder Trophy winner.
Previous ranking: 23
Preseason over/under: 89.5
Points on April 4: 77
Currently 12.5 points below the line with two games to go, you have to feel for a team that has two 100-point stars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl … and a whole lot of uncertainty surrounding them.
Previous ranking: 26
Preseason over/under: 94.5
Points on April 4: 76
The Ducks became cellar dwellers this season, finishing well below their line, because their defense was porous (and they are getting old, and slow, and John Gibson can shoulder only so much).
Previous ranking: 27
Preseason over/under: 75.5
Points on April 4: 75
This is exactly how the Blueshirts were supposed to finish. They look like a team that has fully embarked on the rebuild, and is eager to use five draft picks over the first two rounds in June.
Previous ranking: 30
Preseason over/under: 75.5
Points on April 4: 74
Since “the team is being taken over by the young people” (those are GM Ken Holland’s words), the Red Wings are going to go through some growing pains. Like finishing with under 80 points, as expected.
Previous ranking: 25
Preseason over/under: 80.5
Points on April 4: 72
Remember the 10-game winning streak that catapulted the Sabres to first place on Nov. 27? Since then, the Sabres have only 14 wins. Even the Senators have more (18)!
Previous ranking: 28
Preseason over/under: 91.5
Points on April 4: 70
The Devils were bound to regress, but this was a steep decline. If you have any doubts that Taylor Hall should have won MVP last season, this 20-point drop (as Hall missed a large chunk of the season) should quash them.
Previous ranking: 29
Preseason over/under: 92.5
Points on April 4: 69
Things got out of hand quickly for the Kings, and the relationship with last year’s prized free agent Ilya Kovalchuk already needs to be repaired. Los Angeles could finish more than 20 points below expectations.
Previous ranking: 31
Preseason over/under: 69.5
Points on April 4: 62
Clinching last place in the NHL, the marathon season of gloom — doesn’t Uber-gate feel like years ago? — finished even bleaker than anyone could have predicted.