If you’re one of those who really enjoy the story behind a fight, the UFC 237 main event might be for you.
I mean, how can you top this? Rose Namajunas (8-3), a UFC champion who is known for wearing her emotions on her sleeve and occasionally acting downright fragile during fight weeks, is going into one of the most intimidating settings in mixed martial arts: facing a Brazilian title challenger, Jessica Andrade, in Brazil.
Andrade (19-6) looks every bit the part of a UFC champion (which is why oddsmakers have made her the favorite). The 27-year-old is a wrecking ball of a strawweight who was competing at 135 pounds less than four years ago. She has UFC title fight experience. And she has knockout power, which she displayed against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in September.
Namajunas’ fiancé, Pat Barry, has described this fight as actually more challenging than her back-to-back contests against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. And as crazy as it may sound, all things considered, he might be right. This might be the most frightening combination of circumstances one could come up with in the strawweight division right now. How Namajunas handles it will be good theater.
By the numbers
399: Days it will have been, on fight night, since Namajunas was last in the Octagon (UFC 223 in April 2018, a rematch win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first title defense).
10: UFC victories by Andrade, tying her with bantamweight and featherweight champion Amanda Nunes for most by a female fighter in company history.
6.58: Significant strikes landed per minute by Andrade, the second-most by an active female fighter in UFC history, behind Cris “Cyborg” Justino (6.76), according to UFC Stats.
59.3: Takedown accuracy of Namajunas, according to UFC Stats. That is the second-best success rate in the company’s strawweight history.
3: Consecutive bouts in which Namajunas has not been a betting favorite. She’s been defending champ in two of them. Entering fight week, she was a +110 underdog.
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
A look back
If at first you don’t succeed: Namajunas enters the Octagon in December 2014 for her UFC strawweight championship bout against Carla Esparza. It is the finale of Season 20 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” which is being held to kick off the promotion’s 115-pound women’s division. Although Namajunas was just 22 years old and 2-1 as a pro when the show began, she has made the final by defeating future UFC fighters Alex Chambers, Joanne Calderwood and Randa Markos. On this night, Namajunas — with a full head of hair in braids — will fall short in her first bid for a belt, as Esparza submits her with a third-round rear-naked choke. She’ll have to wait nearly three years for another shot at the title, but when the opportunity comes, “Thug Rose” will make the most of it.
Five vs. five
Bumpy road ahead?
Andrade understands why Namajunas would agree to travel to Rio de Janeiro to defend her belt.
“I think Rose probably wanted to have a chance to compete in Brazil, especially Rio,” she told ESPN’s Marc Raimondi. “It is the home of Brazilian jiu-jitsu. And I think every mixed martial artist would probably like a chance to come to Rio and see what it’s all about.”
But Andrade believes that decision will prove to be a major regret for Namajunas.
“She is gonna feel in this fight similar to what [Brazilians] feel in every single fight,” said Andrade. “The travel is not easy, and just adapting to the home of your opponent is not the easiest thing. Just dealing with travel is a big pain. She’s gonna have to deal with that for the first time defending her belt. I know maybe she might not feel like it was a bad idea to begin with, but I think once the crowd starts chanting and things start developing, she might feel like it was not the best idea to come down here for this.”
Fighting words
“I’m confident in myself and I believe in myself. And really, it doesn’t matter where the fight is. There’s no safe environment for a fight. I believe in myself and I believe in my abilities. And I have everything it takes to win this fight.” — Namajunas, speaking to ESPN
“The pressure is not just a big threshold in this fight, but it’s what makes me different as a whole. In every fight, I know that I can do something that very few people are able to do. I’m able to be in her face, walking forward for five rounds, putting on pressure, trying to knock her head off with every single punch. It might not work out the first time, the second time, but I’m gonna be coming after her for 25 minutes. I know if I can get one punch right, I might knock her block off. And she knows that.” — Andrade, speaking to ESPN
Film study
And the winner is …
Like so many others, I am guilty of underestimating Namajunas. And as tempting as it is to go with Andrade, whose style can quickly snowball into a terrible situation for her opponents, I’m going with the champion.
Brett Okamoto’s pick: Namajunas via decision.
Waiting in the wings
You’d have to think Jedrzejczyk will be watching … and rooting for the challenger. She has lost twice to Namajunas and wouldn’t likely get a third shot at her anytime soon. But if the night ends with the belt around the waist of Andrade, whom Jedrzejczyk defeated in a 2017 title defense, the ex-champ suddenly would be right back in the title mix. Other interested observers will be Tatiana Suarez and Nina Ansaroff, who tussle June 8 in a fight expected to be a No. 1 contender showdown.
What to watch for (beyond the main event)
You’ll see this fight on SportsCenter in the morning
Jose Aldo should lead the highlight shows simply because he’s the one MMA legend on this card who’s still performing like one. (Sorry, Anderson Silva and BJ Penn.) Aldo ruled the featherweight division in the UFC and WEC for six years before Conor McGregor and Max Holloway got the better of him. But at age 32 the Brazilian dynamo is on a run again, No. 3 in ESPN’s 145-pound rankings after winning his last two fights by knockout. He faces a stiff test in sixth-ranked Alexander Volkanovski, a 30-year-old Australian who is 19-1 and has won 16 in a row, six in the UFC. Which traveler will pass through the crossroads unscathed?
Then again, what NOT to watch for
So, yeah, Penn once was among the greats of the sport. He was fearsome. He was skilled. He was winning titles in multiple weight classes before it was the stylish thing to do. But you wouldn’t detect any of that greatness if you’ve seen only his recent performances — OK, let’s stretch “recent” back a full decade. Penn has just one victory since 2009 and is winless in his last seven. It’s sad to watch. So when his lightweight bout with Clay Guida is about to kick off the ESPN prelims at 8 p.m. ET, watch this first, just so you’ll know what you’re missing:
Nickname of the night
Thug Rose! Thug Rose! Thug Rose! (h/t Daniel Cormier, with assists from Jon Anik and Joe Rogan)