The Miami Dolphins will own the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL draft, according to the preseason 1-32 order projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The Andrew Luck-less Indianapolis Colts? They’re projected to pick 11th.
Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations. Stats to know are courtesy ESPN Stats & Information.
Check out the full projection:
More draft coverage:
The Kiper and McShay guide to the CFB season
Kiper’s 2020 Big Board | McShay’s Top 32
Projected record: 5-11
Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 17.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 55.5%
Stat to know: Brian Flores spent 15 seasons with the Patriots organization before being named the Dolphins’ new coach. Coaches from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, however, haven’t found great success, going 178-263 (.403). Only one coach from Belichick’s coaching tree has won a game in the playoffs (Bill O’Brien), and overall, those coaches have gone 1-5 in the playoffs.
Projected record: 5-11
Average draft position: 6.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 15.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 53.7%
Stat to know: Kyler Murray could make an immediate impact. He’s set to become the first Cardinals rookie quarterback to start a season opener since Lamar McHan in 1954 (Elias). In the past 15 seasons, rookie QBs drafted No. 1 overall have averaged 4.4 wins, with a .392 win percentage and 51.0 Total QBR. The only one to post a winning record was Andrew Luck, who, like Murray, had a rookie head coach (Chuck Pagano).
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 10.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.7%
Stat to know: Eli Manning, who is back for his 16th season, has 23 losses as a starting quarterback the past two seasons, the most in the NFL. He was sacked a career-high 47 times in 2018. The Giants’ offensive line struggled, finishing 27th in the NFL in ESPN’s pass block win rate (powered by NFL Next Gen Stats), sustaining their blocks for at least 2.5 seconds only 43% of the time.
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 39.1%
Stat to know: Adrian Peterson re-signed with the Redskins, inking a two-year deal after coming off his first 1,000-yard season since 2015. Peterson enters this season in eighth place on the all-time rushing list and needs four rushing touchdowns to tie Walter Payton for fourth in NFL history. He’s 34 years old but didn’t show any signs of slowing down last season; according to NFL Next Gen, he tied for the fifth-most rush attempts that reached 20-plus mph.
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 9.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 37.2%
Stat to know: Since winning the Super Bowl with Tampa Bay in 2002, Jon Gruden has reached the playoffs only twice in seven seasons and has lost both of his postseason games in that span. Among 23 coaches with at least 100 games coached since 2003, Gruden’s .438 win rank ranks second-worst, ahead of only that of Ken Whisenhunt.
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 9.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.5%
Stat to know: The Bengals allowed 413.6 yards per game last season, most in the NFL and the most allowed in franchise history. As a result, the Bengals drafted four defensive players and picked up two more through free agency. They also hired a new defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, who has mostly been a defensive backs coach in his seven years in the NFL.
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 10
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 32.4%
Stat to know: Jameis Winston is playing out the fifth-year option after being taken first overall in the 2015 draft. Winston established a career high last season in completion percentage (64.6) and Total QBR (68.3). However, he has turned the ball over 76 times in his career, which ties him with Blake Bortles for the most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2015 (he has played 396 fewer snaps than Bortles in that span).
Projected record: 7-9
Average draft position: 12.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.5%
Stat to know: One of the bright spots for the Bills last season was their pass defense, which allowed 179.2 pass yards per game, the lowest in the NFL. One of the main reasons for that is the Bills held their opponents to the fewest yards after the catch. They also had 16 interceptions, which tied for seventh-most in the NFL.
Projected record: 7-9
Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.5%
Stat to know: New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell could pivot the Lions’ offense to a more run-first approach. Bevell was the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator from 2011 to ’17, and in that time, the Seahawks ranked second in total rushing. Kerryon Johnson, a second-round pick last year, snapped the Lions’ 70-game streak without a 100-yard rusher last season, and his 5.4 yards per rush ranked second among qualified rushers.
Projected record: 7-9
Average draft position: 12.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 19.9%
Stat to know: Phillip Lindsay rushed for 1,037 yards in 2018. Only Dominic Rhodes, who recorded 1,104 yards for the Colts in 2001, has rushed for more among undrafted rookies in NFL history. Lindsay can thank his blocking for his success, as he averaged a league-high 3.82 yards before contact per rush.
Projected record: 7-9
Average draft position: 13.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 18.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.7%
Stat to know: Darius Leonard was named the 2018 Defensive Rookie of the Year after leading the NFL with 163 tackles, the most by a rookie since Luke Kuechly in 2012. Leonard now looks to join Kuechly and Patrick Willis as the only players in the past 15 seasons to record 300 tackles in their first two seasons. The Colts allowed 5.3 yards per play with Leonard on the field last season, compared to 7.0 yards per play with him off it.
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position:14.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.8%
Stat to know: The Jets are hoping that second-year quarterback Sam Darnold takes the next step in his progression. From Week 14 through 17 last season, Darnold had the best Total QBR (80.9) in the NFL. One thing that he will need to improve is his accuracy down the field, as he had the worst completion percentage (22%) on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 12%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 29.4%
Stat to know: Aside from the retirement of outside linebackers Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo, the Titans return the bulk of a defensive unit that finished third in points per game allowed last season. Safety Kevin Byard led the team with four interceptions last season and has a league-high 12 picks the past two seasons.
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 16.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30%
Stat to know: New Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo said running back Leonard Fournette will continue to have a major role in the offense. Fournette averaged 21.9 touches per game in his first two seasons, third-most in the league in that span behind that of Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley (min. 20 games).
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 16.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.4%
Stat to know: The 49ers have five former first-round picks on their defensive line with the additions of Nick Bosa (second overall pick) and Dee Ford (trade) to go with DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas. They should improve a pass rush that was tied for 22nd in sacks (37) and 20th (28.6%) in pressure percentage last season.
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 23.1%
Stat to know: The secondary will have to perform much better than it did in Weeks 10-17 last season, when the Panthers endured a seven-game losing streak. Carolina allowed a completion percentage of 68.4 (28th in NFL, Weeks 10-17) and gave up the most yards per attempt, at 8.4, while allowing 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 17.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22.5%
Stat to know: The Ravens are counting on Lamar Jackson to improve as a passer. According to NFL Next Gen, Jackson’s completion percentage was 4.5 percentage points lower than his expected completion percentage, which was sixth-worst among the 41 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes last season. Of those 41 quarterbacks, only Josh Allen had a higher off-target percentage (24%) than Jackson’s (23%).
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 18.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 21.8%
Stat to know: Odell Beckham Jr. brings to Cleveland a receiving threat the Browns rarely possess. Beckham has three seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, there have been only two such instances in Browns history (Paul Warfield in 1968 and Braylon Edwards in 2007).
Projected record: 8-8
Average draft position: 18.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.4%
Stat to know: Seattle has not won a playoff game since the 2016 wild-card round vs. the Lions. But the Seahawks have seven consecutive winning seasons since they drafted Russell Wilson. That’s the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind that of the Patriots.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 18.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.9%
Stat to know: Matt Ryan finished 76 yards shy of a 5,000-yard season in 2018. He has a streak of eight consecutive 4,000-yard seasons, which is the longest active streak in the NFL and the second-longest in NFL history behind Drew Brees‘ 12 in a row that ended in 2018.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 19
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.3%
Stat to know: Aaron Rodgers threw only two interceptions on 597 passes last season, but he also posted the second-worst Total QBR (58.0) of his career. Rodgers struggled when the play broke down in 2018, completing a league-worst 30% of his passes when under duress, aided by a league-high 41 intentional throwaways.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.5%
Stat to know: The Cowboys won their second NFC East title in the past three years in 2018, but their season ended in the divisional playoffs against the Rams. Dallas hasn’t reached the conference championship in its past 10 playoff appearances (last time was 1995), tied with the Chiefs for the longest streak by any team since the 1970 merger.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 19.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.6%
Stat to know: With Le’Veon Bell holding out last season, the Steelers ran for 1,445 yards, second-fewest in the NFL and their second-fewest in the past 35 seasons. James Conner filled in for Bell and accounted for 67% of the Steelers’ rush yards last season, the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL. However, Conner averaged 16.2 touches per game in his last five games after averaging 23.6 touches in his first eight.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.5%
Stat to know: Last season, quarterback Deshaun Watson became the third player in NFL history with 4,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in a season, joining Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Watson, however, was sacked a league-high 62 times. That was the most sacks taken by any quarterback since Jon Kitna in 2006 (63).
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 20.2
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.4%
Stat to know: Mike Zimmer made no secret of his desire to run the ball more, and new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski is expected to do so. Last season, the Vikings dropped back to pass 67% of the time, fifth-highest in the NFL. The Vikings were 5-0 last season when rushing for at least 100 yards, making them one of four teams to go unbeaten when doing so (Rams, Patriots, Steelers).
Projected record: 6-10
Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.9%
Stat to know: The Raiders’ defense picked up just 13 sacks last season, 18 fewer than any other team. Since individual sacks became official in 1982, only three teams have had fewer sacks than the 2018 Raiders.
Projected record: 9-7
Average draft position: 21
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.6%
Stat to know: Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram have combined for 54 sacks the past three seasons, fourth-most of any duo for one team in the NFL. According to ESPN pass-rush metrics using Next Gen Stats, Bosa ranked fourth in pass-rush win rate (33.6%), while Ingram ranked 17th (27.3%) among 103 DE/OLB with at least 200 pass rushes last season.
Projected record: 10-6
Average draft position: 23.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.5%
Stat to know: The biggest difference offensively for the Eagles from 2017 to 2018 was their running game. They were third in rushing offense in 2017 but dropped to 28th last season, the largest decrease in the NFL. Enter Jordan Howard, whom the Eagles traded for in March and who has the third-most rush yards in the league since his rookie season in 2016, behind only that of Elliott and Gurley.
Projected record: 10-6
Average draft position: 24
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5%
Stat to know: The Rams have had a top-five defense in fantasy scoring the past two seasons under coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, they had the league’s best fantasy defense through Week 8 last season but ranked 13th in the second half of the season.
Projected record: 10-6
Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.5%
Stat to know: The Chiefs are preseason favorites to win Super Bowl LIV, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. That gives Andy Reid a chance to win his first Super Bowl in his 21st season as an NFL head coach. According to Elias, that would tie Reid with Larry Brown for the most seasons coached before winning his first championship in NFL/NBA/MLB/NHL history. Brown was the head coach of the Detroit Pistons when they won the NBA Finals in 2004. Bill Cowher holds the NFL record in that category, at 14 seasons.
Projected record: 10-6
Average draft position: 24.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 4.1%
Stat to know: Alvin Kamara joined Herschel Walker as the only players with 1,600 rushing yards and 1,500 receiving yards in their first two NFL seasons. Kamara saw his snaps per game increase from 27.7 in his rookie season to 41.9 last season. The Saints are 15-1 in the regular season when Kamara plays 35 snaps.
Projected record: 11-5
Average draft position: 26.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.8%
Stat to know: Since turning 40, Tom Brady has completed 66% of his passes (sixth-highest in the NFL) and thrown for 8,932 yards (third) and 61 passing touchdowns (third).