Road teams continue to dominate the NFL season, going 9-4-1 against the spread (ATS) last week, and are now hitting at a 58% success rate through Thursday’s game. Last week, the road favorites did the heavy lifting by going 5-0 ATS.
Entering this week, New England and Dallas were the only two teams to be favored in every game this season. That streak will end as the two teams square off this week with New England favored. It is the 58th consecutive game New England has been favored in, extending its record in the Super Bowl era.
As for the entire Week 12 slate, here are some trends and nuggets to watch.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1), 1 p.m. ET
• Seattle is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games including the playoffs, and it is 5-0 outright on the road this season (4-1 ATS).
• Since the start of last season, Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in games when the line is between +3 and -3. Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in that span.
• In his career (including the playoffs), Russell Wilson is 10-2 ATS and outright on the road against the AFC East and NFC East.
• Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS as a favorite against teams that entered with a winning record (2-4 SU).
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Miami is 5-1 ATS since its bye week (last week was the first time it did not cover).
• Baker Mayfield is 2-7 ATS in his career following an ATS win (Cleveland covered last week against Pittsburgh).
• This is the second time since the franchise returned to Cleveland in 1999 that Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite. The other time was in Week 17 of 2007 when Cleveland beat San Francisco, 20-7 as a 13.5-point home favorite. That is the longest double-digit favorite drought by any team.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4), 1 p.m. ET
• Josh Allen is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career, including 1-4 ATS as a single-digit home favorite (3-2 outright).
• Denver has covered five of its last six games, including in both of Brandon Allen‘s starts.
• Three of Denver’s seven losses have been by two or fewer points, and only three of those losses were by more than four points.
• The total is currently 37.5. The lowest over/under this season is 37 (three games). Games with over/unders in the 30’s are 10-5 to the over this season.
• Seven of 10 Buffalo games have gone under the total this season while 14 of the last 18 Denver games have gone under the total. However, the last three Denver games all went over.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET
• Mike Tomlin is 8-18 ATS in his career as a road favorite of at least six points.
• Pittsburgh has won each of the last eight regular-season meetings, going 6-2 ATS in that span.
• In the last 20 regular-season meetings in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh is 16-4 ATS, including 11-3 ATS as a favorite.
• Cincinnati is 0-10 this season and has lost 12 straight games outright. It is 6-6 ATS during its losing streak (4-6 ATS this season).
• In the last four seasons, home teams that are 0-5 or worse outright are 4-13 ATS.
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6), 1 p.m. ET
• New York is 9-4 ATS on the road the last two seasons, including a loss this season when it was the road team against the Jets. Ten of the 13 games went over the total.
• Twelve of Chicago’s last 15 games have gone under the total (including playoffs), including each of the last four.
• Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
Oakland Raiders (-3) at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET
• This is the second time in the current Jon Gruden era (since 2018) that Oakland has been a road favorite. Last year, it lost 34-3 as a 1.5-point favorite in San Francisco.
• Oakland is 4-8 ATS on the road in the current Gruden era (3-8 ATS in last 11 games).
• Oakland is 2-6 ATS in games that start at 1 p.m. ET in the current Gruden era.
• Derek Carr is 3-0 ATS in his career against New York.
• Since Sam Darnold returned from mononucleosis, five of New York’s six games have gone over the total including each of the last four. In all three of New York’s victories this season, the game has gone over the total.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Ron Rivera is 5-1 outright in his last six games as an underdog of at least seven points, including three straight wins. Overall, he is 9-4 ATS and 5-7-1 outright in those games. Last year, Carolina was an eight-point underdog in New Orleans and won the game outright.
• New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.
• Over the last five seasons, Drew Brees is 16-8 ATS in division games and 8-4 ATS at home. However, three of the four home losses came as at least nine-point favorites, including a Week 10 loss against Atlanta.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5), 1 p.m. ET
• Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS this season, the worst mark in the NFL. The Bucs have failed to cover six straight games, the longest active streak in the league.
• After going 3-12 ATS in 15 games from Week 10 of last season to Week 7 of this season, Atlanta has now covered three straight games, including back-to-back wins as an underdog.
• Four straight Atlanta games have gone under the total.
• Eight straight Tampa Bay games have gone over the total.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET
• Matt Patricia is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of at least three points and 0-2 ATS as a favorite of more than three points. • Dwayne Haskins has failed to win or cover in each of his first two career starts. The only quarterbacks in the last 10 seasons to start their careers 0-3 ATS and SU are Mike Glennon, C.J. Beathard, Blaine Gabbert and Jared Goff.
• Six of Washington’s last seven games went under the total (last week’s game went over). The Redskins have been held to 17 or fewer points in eight straight games.
• Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a single-digit underdog, including 0-4 at home and 0-3 this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• Since Ryan Tannehill became the starter, all four Tennessee games have gone over the total. When Marcus Mariota was the starter, the under was 5-1 in Tennessee games.
• Jacksonville is 0-2 ATS in Nick Foles‘ starts this season. Foles is 4-10 ATS as a starter with teams other than Philadelphia in his career.
• Tennessee has covered four straight home meetings. Since 2011, the home team is 12-5 ATS in this series.
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Dallas and New England entered the week as the only two teams to be favorites in every game this season.
• Last season, Dallas was 6-3 ATS as an underdog, including winning five of the last six games outright.
• AFC East teams are 9-3 ATS against NFC East teams this season.
• New England has covered seven straight games against NFC opponents, including the Super Bowl (7-1 ATS since start of last season). Overall, Tom Brady is 44-24-2 ATS in his career against NFC teams in the regular season.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3), 8:20 p.m. ET
• Aaron Rodgers is 8-1-1 ATS in his career off a bye week.
• Green Bay is 6-0 outright and 5-1 ATS against teams that entered with winning records this season. That includes two games as an underdog, which Green Bay won outright both times.
• Kyle Shanahan is 3-8-2 ATS in his career as a favorite.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams, Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Since moving to Los Angeles, the team is 1-7-1 ATS as a home underdog (0-7-1 in last eight games), including 0-4 with Jared Goff and 0-2 under Sean McVay.
• Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS in prime-time games this season.
• Baltimore is 11-4 ATS in prime-time games since 2014.
• Home underdogs are 1-5 ATS on Monday Night Football this season. The only cover came in Week 1 when Oakland upset Denver as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Each of Los Angeles’ last five games went under the total.
• Since 2009, when two teams with winning records meet on Monday, the favorites are 29-10-2 ATS and 11-2-1 ATS since 2016. However, favorites are 0-2 ATS in those games this season.