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MLB InsidersESPN
Opening Day for the 60-game 2020 MLB season is fast approaching, and it sure feels good to have some actual baseball action to talk about. Each day over the next two weeks, our panel of MLB experts will weigh in on the biggest storylines of the season ahead, starting with which 2019 playoff team is due for a big fall this season.
Which 2019 playoff team is set up for a 2020 fall?
Alden Gonzalez: The Washington Nationals for two simple reasons: They lost Anthony Rendon and didn’t necessarily replace him, and they won the World Series last year in spite of a historically bad bullpen. Bullpens will be essential this year. Most starters probably won’t be fully stretched out early on, and teams are going to cycle through a lot of pitching — a lot of players — due to the inevitability of coronavirus cases. The Nationals’ top-heavy pitching staff was a major weapon in October because Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez basically carried the team. The Nats will need much more than that in a season such as this.
Bradford Doolittle: The Milwaukee Brewers. They had a ton of turnover since last season, and to my eye, much of it looks like a rearranging of the deck chairs. However, the deck itself might need some renovation. The loss of Yasmani Grandal is huge. The Brewers can’t withstand any kind of decline from Christian Yelich or Josh Hader, and as good as those players are, it might be tough for them to put up a third straight season at the level they’ve played at. Lorenzo Cain is the other foundation piece, and he is 34, he has spent a decade banging into walls, and his numbers declined significantly last season.
Buster Olney: The Atlanta Braves, which really is a shame because in spring training, they looked spectacular, with the continued development of some of their youngest players. But they’ve suffered the most critical losses of any team to the coronavirus, with Freddie Freeman out indefinitely and Nick Markakis opting out after talking with Freeman. On top of that, the teams in the East divisions of both leagues will have the most challenging schedules, with Atlanta lined up to play the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
Jeff Passan: The notion that the Houston Astros will fall entirely out of the playoff picture might be a stretch, but this isn’t the 107-win juggernaut that came within a game of winning the World Series last year. Losing Gerrit Cole is one thing. Starting the season with Justin Verlander on the mend from groin surgery, Lance McCullers Jr. coming off Tommy John surgery and a back end of the rotation with questions — Jose Urquidy and Josh James still haven’t thrown a summer camp pitch — could be problematic. Compound that with the absence of Yordan Alvarez from camp, and the Astros are starting a short season short-handed, and that’s a burden for even a tremendously talented team.
Jesse Rogers: The Nationals, for sure. OK, they won’t have the traditional World Series hangover, which most championship teams experience, but between the loss of Rendon and some issues with restarting because of the coronavirus, they will not be picking up where they left off. In 2019, they were the classic team that got hot at the right time. Although the shorter season will lend itself to the same kind of thinking — the hot team might ride the wave — the Nationals are part of a tough division in which they trailed all of last season. Bottom line: This isn’t a dynasty in the making — see their bullpen for evidence — though they have plenty of talent.