It happens every spring, as the stats from these games that don’t really count help to spawn a delightful debate. We say “throw ’em all out” with one breath and then cite selected numbers with our next. So which is it, then? Do these spring stats matter to fantasy baseball managers or not?
Well, it depends. Spring training — the exhibition-game portion of it, which is the source of the stats in question — includes a wide array of players at varying ages, experience levels and skill sets, influencing the level of competition from at-bat to at-bat. It’s also another of the small sample sizes we frequently critique. If you think 2020’s 60-game schedule was tough to parse, please take note that spring training is usually a mere 32 games or so per team.
That said, we as fantasy managers must draw some conclusions from the data at hand, and things do change during spring training. Players are fighting for jobs. Players are recovering from or working through injuries. Players might be experimenting with new skills that render their results meaningless, while others might have already made a tangible change to their skill sets that could positively influence their results. It’s a dreaded pick-and-choose scenario, but if you’re going to take a broad, sweeping approach to the entirety of spring training numbers, then the correct answer is “throw ’em out, all of ’em.”
Let’s be clear. I don’t like broad, sweeping judgments. Some spring results do matter, and there are new measurables that can help us extract them. Certain spring stats matter thanks to the eye test — results I’ve seen in televised games — but the addition of Statcast tracking technology in several spring training facilities in Florida this spring helps a lot in identifying numbers that matter. Unfortunately, Statcast is still only in use in nine spring training facilities covering 11 major league teams, listed below, which is why the aforementioned “eye test” remains important.
Here are the results that have most caught my eye:
Robbie Ray‘s fastball has increased in average velocity by more than 2.0 mph compared to 2020, and the 95.9 mph he has averaged (which would be the highest in his entire career if compared to 2016’s 94.9 mph regular-season best) has come in four starts that fortunately all were pitched in Statcast-equipped venues. He has generated a swinging strike on 14.5% of those fastballs, which again exceeds his regular-season best (10.7%, 2017). This goes a long way towards explaining his 1.98 ERA and 18-of-52 batters struck out. But perhaps most importantly, Ray has thrown a first-pitch strike to 69% of the batters he has faced while walking only 9.6%. His regular-season best in first-pitch strike rate is 61% and he has an 11.0% career walk rate. Ray attributes this change to more intense work in the gym, and it’s no longer unthinkable that he could recapture the form that made him 2019’s ESPN Player Rater SP34.
C.J. Cron‘s hard-hit rate is an eye-popping 65.2%, and that’s coming from 23-of-28 batted balls which were hit at Statcast-equipped venues. Cron has already hit 13 baseballs at 100-plus mph (and four of them at 110-plus, including Monday’s home run off Dane Dunning). To put that into perspective, he reached that exit velocity just 90 total times in 2018, his best offensive season to date. Oh, and Cron will now call Coors Field his home, presumably as a near-everyday first baseman after his weekend addition to the 40-man roster. There’s a realistic chance he’ll approach 2018’s 30 homers, and with that kind of hitting stroke and his new home’s spacious outfield gaps, he might be destined for a career-high batting average, too.
Jose Alvarado‘s sinker has been filthy thus far, and I’m no longer concerned that his best fit is as a left-handed specialist in the Phillies bullpen. Alvarado’s sinker has averaged 98.9 mph and he has thrown 9-of-58 as fast as 100 mph — and that’s with Statcast measuring pitches in all but one of his appearances. What’s more, he has a 42.9% called strike rate this spring, substantially higher than his 31.8% career regular-season rate. Plus, 16 out of his 18 charted called strikes were on, you guessed it, his sinker. Alvarado has also flashed an excellent cutter, narrowing his platoon-split risk and making him a bona fide candidate to steal the closer’s job from Archie Bradley and Hector Neris (if not by Opening Day, then perhaps in the season’s opening weeks).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s batting average is a scorching .520 (13-for-25). Much more importantly, it’s backed by a 54.2% hard-hit rate in which all 24 of his batted balls have been measured by Statcast. Nine of those 24 were hit at least 100 mph and, while his ground-ball rate remains an elevated 50%, the fact that five of those balls fell in that 100-plus-mph group helps. Four of those resulted in hits, but there’s no shock surrounding his speed. I’d still like to see Guerrero getting more lift on the ball, but the guy is scorching the ball more than he ever has, he’s in much better shape, and he already has five extra-base hits in 25 at-bats. Decreasing that ground-ball rate to even 42-45% wouldn’t just mean a breakout — it might just elevate his game to MVP level.
Elieser Hernandez‘s changeup — a pitch he pledged to work on entering spring training — gives him a fighting chance at balancing his righty/lefty splits, and with it, a repeat of his six-start 2020 (only over a 162-game schedule). He has thrown the pitch 20% of the time (20-of-101 charted pitches) and has allowed only one ground-ball base hit alongside four swinging and one called strike with it. Its variable spin rates suggest Hernandez still has some polish yet to make to the pitch, but the fact he’s throwing it with more confidence is a big help and partly explains his 12 K’s in 35 total batters. He’s not a pitcher to forget about in the final rounds of deeper mixed leagues.
Ketel Marte‘s average exit velocity is 97.4 mph on 17 batted balls, and while he’s hitless in seven at-bats since his return from an ankle injury, he’s still enjoying a heck of a bounce-back spring. That rate alone shouldn’t sway you, but that he’s already halfway (3) to his 2020 Barrel total (6) shows that some of Marte’s power stroke seems to have returned. Any draft in which he sneaks outside the overall top-50 picks is one where you should be scooping him up as a potential value.
Jordan Romano‘s fastball has enjoyed a more-than-200-rpm boost in spin rate, and he has thrown it nearly two-thirds of the time — a sizable bump compared to 2020 (40.1%). If those numbers don’t register for you, worry not, as the takeaway is that the greater the average fastball velocity (and Romero’s has averaged 96.5 mph this spring, which has been fully Statcast-tracked) and the higher the spin rate, the more of a strikeout pitch it becomes. His tweaks mean that he now has two legitimate swing-and-miss pitches, so he no longer has to lean on his slider so heavily. There’s a reason Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker declared Romero to be a high-leverage arm for 2021. Given Monday’s Kirby Yates news, it’s fair to go all-in on Romero when speculating on this team’s April saves.
Mitch Garver has a fourth-best 5 Barrels as he attempts to rebound from a miserable 2020. Again, that’s a precariously small sample that’s difficult to trust, but it’s that specific category that bodes well for the 2019 top-five fantasy catcher. After all, Garver’s contact quality wasn’t really in question — he had near-identical average exit velocity and hard hit rates in 2019-20. However, he hit many more fly balls (and many of them of the harmless type) while struggling to make contact on pitches in the strike zone. This spring, he has made contact with 14-of-17 pitches in the zone, and Garver’s rising Barrel rate gives hope he could recapture a 25-plus-homer form. In an ESPN standard league, he’s one of the best wait-until-the-end catchers.
Jose Berrios‘ fastball has recaptured some of its lost spin rate, averaging 2,222 rpm, and he has exhibited more confidence throwing it higher in the strike zone, with his 43% rate much closer to his 2018-19 numbers than 2020’s 32%. Only three of his four starts were tracked by Statcast, but the one that wasn’t (March 10 against the Tampa Bay Rays) was what I’d have judged to be his best thus far, and there’s every reason to believe that his 2.63 ERA and 24.1% strikeout rate this spring hints at a rebound to his 2018-19 form. Berrios has a 15.8% swinging-strike rate in his four starts, which would easily eclipse his 12.6% regular-season best from 2020.