We are down to four teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Can the Tampa Bay Lightning go back-to-back? Will the New York Islanders get revenge for last year’s loss in the conference finals? Underdog Montreal and 2019 finalist Vegas will battle in the other semifinal.
NHL writers Greg Wyshynski and Emily Kaplan and betting analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica are here to give us their best bets for the Stanley Cup semifinals.
Stanley Cup semifinals
New York Islanders (+240) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-300)
Fallica: At what point will the Islanders stop being dismissed as lucky or boring? They have scored more goals than anyone this postseason. They have won 21 playoff games over the past two years. In the last three years under Barry Trotz, they have swept Sidney Crosby and the Penguins, beat the division champion Pens, beat the division champion Caps, beat the Flyers (who were the hottest team in the league in the bubble last year), beat the Bruins (who were the toast of the league after the Taylor Hall trade) and came as close as anyone to beating Tampa in a series last year. They took the Lightning to six games in which two of the losses were of the 2-1 variety, including in Game 6.
The Islanders can check and defend, and while they don’t have the prolific scorers the Lightning do, 14 different players have scored in the postseason and Semyon Varlamov is a great equalizer in net. Anyone who thinks the Isles are going down without a fight here is just wrong. I’m expecting another long series in which ultimately the talent of the salary-cap-loophole Lightning will likely win out, but I will also play the Islanders on the money line as well for a 1/2 unit.
Pick: Series to go six games (+200); Islanders in series (+240)
Wyshynski: I’ve seen enough of the Islanders to know they’re a tough out. I’ve seen enough of the Lightning to know they are the superior team, with a roster filled with players who can come through in the clutch. These two grinded to a six-game series in the bubble last season, and I like this Islanders team better than that one — especially since they’re not in a bubble this time. Nassau Coliseum is an active character in this drama. The Islanders average four goals per game there, versus 3.17 on the road. I can see a scenario where the Islanders get this to six games and the power of that home crowd propels them to seven games. In which case, the pick below cashes, even if Tampa advances.
Pick: Islanders +1.5 games (+100)
Kaplan: The Islanders are the underdogs who keep proving everyone wrong. So why not one more series? Tampa Bay has star power and enviable forward depth, but New York’s stingy defensive system has already knocked Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron out of these playoffs. New York lost to Tampa at this stage in six games last year, but as veteran Matt Martin told me earlier in the season, the team viewed it as a necessary hardship to eventually reach the goal. “Tampa has been a top team in this league for multiple years now, and they were finally able to break through after getting that experience,” Martin said. “Hopefully that’s what we can take away.”
Pick: Islanders in series (+240)
Game 1: Islanders (+165) at Lightning (-185)
Wyshynski: The Islanders have actually been a surprisingly good offensive team this postseason, going from a ho-hum 2.71 goals per game in the regular season to 3.58 goals per game in the postseason. But the trends here all favor the under. Tampa has hit the under in six of its last seven games, although that has been more reliable on the road than at home. The Islanders were actually over the total in both of their previous road Game 1s, but the Lightning are better than Pittsburgh and healthier than Boston. Keep in mind that four of the six games between the two last season hit the under. Of course, one of the ones that didn’t was Game 1. This is a wager made with some, but not total, confidence.
Pick: Under 5.5 goals (-140)
Montreal Canadiens (+400) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-500)
Fallica: This has the potential to be a short series. Montreal might be down Jeff Petry in Game 1, which would be a massive loss. As great as the Habs’ run has been, one simply cannot ignore Toronto was down John Tavares because of injury and Winnipeg was down Mark Scheifele because of suspension. Now they face a confident Vegas team that overcame a scrappy, physical series with Minnesota and then handed the Avs their first four-game losing streak of the season after getting throttled in Game 1. It’s going to be hard for the Habs to match the skill and depth of the Vegas roster, and I would be surprised if they managed to steal more than one game.
Pick: Vegas -1.5 games in series (+130)
Wyshynski: Consider this underdog juggernaut insurance. Vegas is a -500 favorite for a reason. The Golden Knights are deep, talented, have exceptional defense and two lines that are torrid right now. Montreal hasn’t faced a team like Vegas yet in the postseason. The Canadiens have taken advantage of two teams — Toronto and Winnipeg — that lost star centers in Game 1 and then lost the series. There isn’t the same kind of thread you can pull on the Golden Knights to unravel them. Vegas, meanwhile, already has a series win against a strong defensive team in Minnesota, which was a good primer for this. I like this bet in case Vegas steamrolls the Canadiens, whose momentum was halted by a lengthy layoff between series; and in case we’re watching one of those defensive underdog juggernauts in Montreal that is peaking at the right time and stuns another favorite.
Pick: Series to end in 5 games (+230)
Kaplan: If you like the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup — and at this point, that’s a great choice — this is a smart bet to make. There’s a chance a Vegas forward completely takes over the Stanley Cup Final, but the Golden Knights have thrived so far because of even production (five players have between four and six goals). Marc-Andre Fleury has been Vegas’ No. 1 goalie throughout the playoffs and is thriving with a .923 save percentage through 12 starts. After overcoming personal loss and adversity in 2019-20, Fleury was named a Vezina finalist for the first time in his 17-year career in 2021. Capturing finals MVP would cap off the narrative arc. A goalie hasn’t won the Conn Smythe since Jonathan Quick in 2012, but that streak could easily end if Vegas wins it all.
Pick: Fleury wins Conn Smythe (+185 on DraftKings)