Why the Pittsburgh Panthers have a legitimate College Football Playoff chance

Pitt is a playoff contender. A real playoff contender.

We first touched on the Panthers when they started showing up in the Allstate Playoff Predictor’s forecast a few weeks ago. At the time, one of their biggest hurdles to clear was their game against Clemson. Consider that box checked.

As we sit now, days away from the first CFP rankings reveal, Pitt has a 22% chance to reach the playoff, the seventh-best shot among all teams, behind only Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Ohio State and Michigan. Then Pitt. Even though the Panthers have a 44-41 home loss to Western Michigan. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Pitt a better chance than a slew of bigger names to reach the CFP. It has a much better chance than undefeated Wake Forest — in the same conference! — even.

It’s all a bit counterintuitive. So let’s break down the case for the Panthers.

Pitt is really good

The Panthers are the sixth-best team in the country, according to FPI. Sixth best! That Cincinnati team that is getting so much buzz as the possible first Group of 5 school to crack the CFP? Pitt is better. Undefeated Michigan State? Pitt’s better. One-loss Notre Dame and one-loss Oregon? Pitt’s better. Undefeated Wake Forest? Pitt is much better. You get the idea.

So what makes FPI believe Pitt will be so great? To put it simply, Pitt has been exceptional on a play-by-play level.

Efficiency is our metric for measuring past performance for individual units. It’s expected points added per play, adjusted for quality of opponent and garbage time. Pitt ranks eighth in offensive efficiency, fifth in defensive efficiency and 105th in special teams efficiency, for a rank of fifth overall. That special teams has been a negative is notable: It’s the least stable of the three units, so predictively FPI still expects the Panthers to be roughly average on special teams going forward.

Offensively Pitt is particularly skilled on pass plays, which is ideal: It averages 8.6 yards per dropback, the sixth-highest rate in the country. Kenny Pickett ranks third in the nation in QBR and is blossoming into a Heisman candidate.

You want it in the simplest possible terms? Pitt currently has a plus-25.7 points margin per game, No. 5 in the country.

And the fact that the Panthers’ breakout is unexpected is actually held against them. FPI’s prior belief on Pitt entering the season wasn’t particularly strong relative to other top contenders. That’s still factored in, but Pitt’s No. 6 FPI ranking comes despite that.

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Clemson Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers: Full Highlights

It can weather the loss to Western Michigan

I’ll let you in on a little secret: As long as the schedule and record remain the same, mathematically it does not matter which team you lose to. Seriously.

In other words, Pitt currently ranks 17th in strength of record. Had its loss come against Western Michigan or Georgia Tech or Clemson or heck, even New Hampshire, it would have been 17th. As long as the Panthers played the same schedule and were the same 6-1. What difference does it make?

If we compare Pitt to Ohio State: The Buckeyes lost to a much better team in Oregon. But Ohio State hasn’t beaten anyone of the caliber of Clemson. Or gotten a win at Tennessee for that matter. If we compare the schedules, Pitt’s has been slightly harder. Which is why it’s been slightly more impressive to go 6-1 against Pitt’s schedule than Ohio State’s (the Buckeyes rank 20th in SOR).

It has a 27% chance to win out and could make a pretty strong case as a one-loss champion

Now that we’re past whom Pitt lost to, let’s talk about whether it could get in despite having a loss. Of course, we’re talking about a world where Pitt wins out — that’s the only way any of this matters — so get yourself in a state of mind where the Panthers have gone on a heck of a run, won out, and won the ACC.

It’s not that far-fetched because of what we’ve already discussed: Pitt is awfully strong as a team, and it doesn’t have a particularly hard schedule with Clemson now in the rearview mirror.

At 12-1, we project that Pitt would rank fifth in strength of record. So the way the model views it: Pitt would be fifth in strength of record, sixth in FPI, have one loss and be a conference champion. It’s not a perfect résumé and would not guarantee a playoff berth. But it’s probably enough to get in.

If you’re looking for a parallel, here’s one: 2019 Oklahoma. That season, the Sooners ranked fifth in SOR but ninth in FPI — a bit worse than where we have Pitt now. They were 12-1 and Big 12 champs. And they got into the playoff.

But it would need some chaos

What a 12-1 Pitt cannot have is four of the following also existing on selection day:

• Undefeated or 1-loss Georgia

• 1-loss champion Alabama

• Undefeated or 1-loss champion Oklahoma

• Undefeated or 1-loss champion Ohio State or Michigan

• Undefeated Michigan State

In addition, a non-exhaustive list of other situations under which Pitt might lose out includes:

That seems like a lot! But here’s the thing: Any scenario we concoct to make four of these happen is not particularly likely to happen.

Let’s look at a chalky example. The chance that Oklahoma wins out, Ohio State wins out and Alabama wins out, with Georgia winning out until it loses to Alabama is … just 1%.

Let’s try: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Georgia and Cincinnati winning out. That has less than a 1% chance of happening, and it’s not even clear if Cincinnati or Pittsburgh would take that last playoff spot if the Panthers also won out.

Now these can add up, particularly when we consider that some of these teams have breathing room to lose a game. But my point is: We shouldn’t compare Pitt’s record to those of other contenders today. We should compare it on selection day … and there is very likely to be mayhem between now and then.

What separates Pitt from Wake Forest?

It’s a little shocking to see Pitt with a 22% chance to reach the playoff when fellow ACC team Wake Forest is under 1% despite being undefeated. So what’s the difference? Quite a bit.

Pitt is a much better team than Wake, FPI believes. Remember how Pitt is averaging a points differential of plus-25.7 points per game, 5th-best in the FBS? Wake Forest is at just plus-16.9. That’s despite the fact that Pitt has played the 57th-hardest schedule and Wake Forest has played the 91st.

Because FPI believes the Demon Deacons are just the 35th-best team in the FBS, that makes it much less likely for them to win out — which is compounded by the fact that Wake Forest plays the 19th-most difficult remaining schedule, while Pitt plays just the 49th-most difficult remaining schedule.

Ultimately, the model believes there’s less than a 1% chance Wake Forest wins out (including the ACC championship game, compared to 27% for Pitt), which is why it is so willing to write off the Demon Deacons from the playoff.