Through injuries and off-ice adversity, the Florida Panthers keep winning, sitting atop the Atlantic Division with an .806 points percentage in 18 games. They are Stanley Cup contenders — and now, the odds reflect that.
The Panthers have seen one of the most dramatic shifts in Stanley Cup championship odds this season, going from +2500 when they opened to their current odds at +850 at BetMGM. They’re down to +800 at William Hill. That’s a slighter larger move than that of the first-place Edmonton Oilers, who have seen their odds shift from +2800 at open to +1200 currently.
The Panthers actually have a higher percentage of the tickets for Stanley Cup champion (6.2%) than the Vegas Golden Knights (5.7%) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (4.8%). at BetMGM.
At William Hill, the Panthers have better Stanley Cup odds at their state rivals the Lightning, whose search for the three-peat opened at +750 but have moved to +850. They both trail the Colorado Avalanche, who remain the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup at +650, slightly up from their +600 opening odds.
The Avalanche continue to dominate other teams in terms of percentage of tickets (19.7%) and percentage of the overall Stanley Cup champion handle (24.5%), according to BetMGM. Second in both tickets (8.3%) and handle (12.3%) are the New York Islanders, who are currently in last place in the Metro division.
As far as teams moving in opposite direction, the Islanders are one of them. Their BetMGM odds went from +1800 to +2200, while they’re at +2500 at William Hill. But the two biggest crashes on the market are obvious: The Chicago Blackhawks and the expansion Seattle Kraken.
The Blackhawks had a lot of people fooled with their offseason additions of defenseman Seth Jones and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. But they’re a .353 points percentage team that already fired head coach Jeremy Colliton, and their odds have gone from +6500 for the Cup at open to +12500 currently.
The Kraken aren’t who we thought they were either. Opening at +5000 for the Stanley Cup, Seattle is now at +12500 at BetMGM and William Hill.
Two teams to watch here. The Golden Knights (+1000, +950 at Draft Kings) have actually seen their odds worsen despite acquiring Jack Eichel from the Buffalo Sabres. The Anaheim Ducks, one of the biggest surprises in the league this season, haven’t seen that translate over into the futures betting markets yet. They’re +3000 to win the Western Conference and +10000 win the Stanley Cup, which is what their odds opened at to start the season.
Experts’ Corner (Q&A)
Steven Psihogios is a fantasy sports and betting writer with Yahoo! Sports Canada. Playing daily fantasy was second nature to him as someone constantly checking in on lineups for NHL teams in traditional fantasy hockey leagues. I asked him for some insight into the wild world of daily fantasy wagering.
Q. What are the general differences between daily fantasy and being in a traditional fantasy league with all your friends?
There’s a salary cap. You can play single game slates, which are exactly as they sound: You just pick players from one game. You can play different time slots as well. And then there’s just the regular daily fantasy for all the games that day. There are typically two types of contests: a guaranteed prize pool, where a certain amount of people in the contest win money; a 50/50, where winners win just under double their entry fee; and a double-up, where less than 50% of the pool wins and you win double your money.
It’s a small sample size, so you have to imagine that everything is on the table. For example, Rem Pitlick of the Minnesota Wild recently went from never having scored a goal to scoring a natural hat trick as a fourth liner. Everyone’s in play and the budget is going to make you dig deeper when you’re looking at who’s in your lineup. You’re looking for opportunities: Players that move up the lineup due to injuries, for example, who can give you budget elsewhere.
Q. When you’re betting lines, you usually want to lock something in before information is available to the public about that night’s games. But in daily fantasy, it’s the opposite: You’re trying to wait on information as long as you can, yeah?
Totally. A lot of the contests will open once the puck drops on the action from the night before. So you monitor that stuff throughout the day. On a Wednesday, you’ll set your lineup for Thursday, and then on Thursday you’re reading all the beat reporters to see if there’s information about the lineups that night. Because those prices aren’t going to after the contests open. With daily fantasy, you want to be as informed as possible.
Q. What’s your first commandment for daily fantasy?
Know your scoring system. They all vary from site to site. For example, on Yahoo, you get two points for a power-play point, while on Draft Kings you don’t get any extra points for a power-play point. So there’s a huge advantage for having a player on the power play when you’re playing Yahoo. You can build a great lineup for one site, but it might not translate to another [contest].
Q. What’s the most common mistake you see in daily fantasy?
With the NHL, it’s not checking up on starting goalies before the contest starts. It’s one of these things that drives me up a wall: That we don’t have starting goalies listed at the morning skate. That these coaches take it right up to puck drop. What is the competitive advantage? It’s not like teams have 20 goalies to choose from. There are two. But if you don’t make adjustments, it can sink your lineup. Especially on FanDuel, where wins are worth like 12 points. Q. How do you handle the streakiness of hockey in playing daily fantasy? I’m in the camp that you ride it until you can’t anymore. You don’t to outsmart yourself thinking you can call when the point streak is going to end. Now, if I see things like players are scoring goals on very high shooting percentages, that will concern me a little bit. I look at recent shots on a goal a lot, especially when I’m filling out the bottom part of my lineup. You’ll get points for shots on goal, and it’s a pre-predictive measurement.
Q. Give me a player that you love in daily fantasy.
Bryan Rust of the Pittsburgh Penguins. He never gets priced up to the elite player category, but he will have some crazy shots on goal nights. If you’re not shooting, you can’t score. And he’ll have those seven-shot outings where even if he doesn’t score, you won’t feel bad about him in your lineup. Basically, I like any high-volume shooter, especially in 50/50 and double-up contests. You don’t need to have the best lineup. You just need to finish in the top half.
Q. Give me a player that’s toxic for you.
At the right price, I’ll take anybody. But one thing that I’ve noticed is that there are a lot of teams built around Toronto Maple Leafs, so maybe I try to avoid Maple Leafs just a little bit to do the contrarian play.
Q. Finally, what’s your sales pitch for someone that’s interested in daily fantasy?
It’s a great way to make the game a little bit more exciting. Play a single-game slate. See how you do. And it’ll make you a smarter hockey fan for sure.
Trick or Trend
Nick Suzuki (0 points in 5 games)
The Montreal Canadiens forward was on an absolutely scoring tear for a minute with points in seven of nine games and hitting the over on shots per game in 10 of 11 contests. He went ice cold in his last five games, including three straight games without a shot on goal. They have him on a line with Tyler Toffoli and rookie Cole Caufield, who just returned from the AHL and has yet to register a point. We’ll say this is a TRICK because Suzuki has been consistently good, but watch the line combos here.
Anaheim Ducks (16-2-0 on the puck line)
One of the betting stories of the season. The Ducks are 88.9% on the puck line this season, with only the Washington Capitals (72.2% though Saturday’s games) anywhere close to that clip. Part of this trend is perception: The Ducks have only been money line favorites in five games this season, and Anaheim has certainly outkicked its coverage. As long as the Ducks are averaging 3.39 goals per game and 2.61 goals against per game, this is very much a TREND.
Vegas Golden Knights (1st 10 minutes)
Vegas is a city with a lot of action, and that’s true for its hockey team in the first period. The Golden Knights have seen a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of play in nine of their 11 home games this season (81.8%) and four of seven games on the road. That said, this might be a bit of a TRICK. According to Ian Duncan’s figures, the Knights have only gone 5-5 on “first 10” wagers in their last 10 games, including going one for their last three at home.