Depending on how many games they lost to pandemic postponements, most NHL teams are right around the midway point in their seasons. Which means we have a good sample of games to project postseason success, both in the standings and in the awards categories.
If you’re shopping for some postseason longshots, here are some options.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Hart Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers (+4000)
It takes an exceptional year for a goalie to win the Hart Trophy for league MVP. Shesterkin leads the NHL with a .936 save percentage and is a tremendous 19-4-2 in 25 starts. That’s a better save percentage than Carey Price had in 2015 when he won both the Vezina and the Hart in the same season. Shesterkin actually has he second lowest odds for the Vezina (+450) behind Toronto Maple Leafs goalie Jack Campbell (+350), even though 16.7% of the tickets purchased at BetMGM were for Shesterkin.
What could hold him back for MVP honors? Workload. Price played 66 games when he won the Hart. Shesterkin could play every game left for the Rangers and not hit that benchmark. But if there isn’t a clear-cut choice among the forwards – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Alex Ovechkin, Auston Matthews – and the Rangers challenge for the division title, perhaps Shesterkin finds enough votes to win at long odds.
Calder Trophy: Tanner Jeannot, Nashville Predators (+900 via BetMGM)
Nashville’s rookie forward has a few things that might play in his favor. Calder-winning forwards have traditionally led rookies in either goals or points. Jeannot currently leads all rookies with 13 goals, and trails Detroit Red Wings forward Lucas Raymond (33 points) by eight points for the rookie scoring lead.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of Raymond or the incredible buzz of Anaheim Ducks winger Trevor Zegras, the current rookie of the year leader at -150, but he could end up with the numbers. As we saw with Roman Josi’s Norris Trophy campaign a few years ago, the Predators’ PR staff knows how to make an awards case to the writers.
Jack Adams Award: Jared Bednar, Colorado Avalanche (+2200 via BetMGM)
The Avalanche are 28-8-3 on the season. Their .679 points percentage is the best in the NHL and would be the best in franchise history. If the Avalanche are the best team in the league by a large margin, could Bednar take home the Jack Adams? A couple of the other top candidates for the Jack Adams have won the trophy before: Rangers coach Gerard Gallant (2018) and Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’amour (2021). Predators coach John Hynes is the current leader (+600).
It’s usually an award where the best narrative wins, but two of the last six Jack Adams winners had teams finish with the best record in the NHL. Bednar would also be a first-time winner for this award, as voted on by the NHL’s broadcasters.
Eastern Conference Winner: Washington Capitals (+1100)
The hard part is out of the way: Barring something completely unforeseen, the Capitals are going to be a playoff team. They’re 18 points better than the next team in the Metro Division standings (Columbus) and 13 points up on the next closest wild card team. They’re going to get a boost when Anthony Mantha, who has been limited to 10 games, returns. They could add even more at the trade deadline.
Washington’s playoff fate could be determined by the goaltending tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek, but they’re a deceptively solid defensive team (sixth in expected goals against at 5-on-5). If they’re healthy and get the right path, they could be a longshot play in the East. If Alex Ovechkin wills it, so it shall be.
Stanley Cup winner: St. Louis Blues (+2500)
Sometimes a team wins the Stanley Cup and then they’re off the radar for the punditry. The Blues raised the chalice in 2019; they couldn’t do it again in 2022, could they?
Absolutely. We slept on the Blues as a possible contender. They’re a top five offensive team that can still bring it defensively. The emergence of Jordan Kyrou as a leading scorer, the resurgence of Vladimir Tarasenko, the smart additions of Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad, with potentially more to come … it all adds up to a lowkey contender for the conference crown. Especially now that it appears they’ll have a safety net in Ville Husso in case Jordan Binnington implodes in the postseason again.
Q&A: Sachin Dave Chandan, ESPN
Sachin Dave Chandan is an Associate Editor of Fantasy Hockey and Sports Betting” for ESPN.com. “But if you want to be more conversational,” he said, “you can write ‘Fantasy Hockey/Sports Betting Editor.'”
Sach is definitely “conversational,” as he’s one of my favorite people at ESPN with whom to talk pucks. He’s also a thorough researcher with a love of hockey history. That established, I wanted his take on what this COVID-interrupted season has done to fantasy hockey, where big-money leagues – and daily fantasy bettors – have seen players come and go from lineups.
Q. What have these COVID absences and sudden postponements done to fantasy hockey over the last two seasons, and specifically this one?
CHANDAN: The No. 1 issue is flexibility. Before the 2021 season, the first 2021 season I mean, we pushed for our players to add more bench and more IR spots to their leagues, in anticipation of weeks where multiple starters may be in the COVID protocol.
DFS saw a different change, the necessity of monitoring frequent line and goalie changes. In a 56-game 2021, 91 different goalies recorded a win, higher than any 82-game season. 2021-22 might even pass that mark, as we’ve had 86 different goalies record a win at the halfway point of the season. If you can nail a lower-priced spot starter matchup, then you have more cash left to use on a safe forward pick.
Q. The NHL released its revised schedule for the 2021-22 season, moving games around and compressing the season for some teams. How does that impact fantasy hockey and team planning?
A: Perfect timing! On Friday, Victoria Matiash looked at the revised schedule to see the teams benefiting most from a now-busy February. You may want to pick up some Islanders.
There’s also another quirk to the weeklong pause in December. Players who were on IR essentially got a free week or more in which they didn’t miss games while they recovered. Depending on who you’ve stashed on your IR spot, or who’s available on the waiver wire, some players may get a bonus three or four games later in the season, a big deal for your playoff push.
Q. Who are some of the fantasy darlings this year?
A: Even before his five-goal game, Timo Meier had exceeded his expectations. Meier was drafted in the 15th round and is producing like a first rounder.
Additionally, I want to spotlight Matt Duchene and new all-star Troy Terry. Both were drafted in the 22nd round and have produced like fifth rounders.
Q. Who are some of the fantasy duds?
A: Hockey Twitter has had quite the debate around this guy, so I feel bad piling on, but Philipp Grubauer went from Vezina candidate to having one of the worst goalie seasons in recent memory. Grubauer was drafted in the seventh round, and currently has negative points on the season.
Trick or Trend
Cam Atkinson shot prop
The Flyers winger has had three or more shots on goal in eight of his last 10 games for the Flyers. He’s 13th in the NHL with 132 shots on goal for the season. Since the calendar flipped to 2022, Atkinson has been peppering opposing goalies on a line with Claude Giroux and Joel Farabee, averaging nearly 19 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Unless he inexplicably goes cold, we’ll call this a trend. He hasn’t gone two straight games with under three shots on goal since Dec. 30.
Verdict: Trend
New York Islanders under
In December, the New York Islanders were 5-5-0 against the total, which was a bit of a surprise for one of the NHL’s most notoriously low-event teams. Since Jan. 1, things have normalized: Six of their last seven games have gone under, including four games in which the over/under was just 5.5 goals. Despite the league-wide trend to the over since the NHL’s long holiday break, we’ll say this is a full-on trend for coach Barry Trotz and his team.
Verdict: Trend
Dallas Stars 1st period overs
The Stars’ games have gone over 1.5 goals in the first period in 8 of their last 10 games, including five of their last six games. Is this going to stick?
Alas, we think it’s a trick. On the season, only 50% of the Stars’ games have hit the over in the first period according to Chris Otto’s research. The Stars are 20th in the NHL in first-period offense and give up the fourth-fewest goals in the first period. There isn’t a lot of scoring action in Dallas games to begin with, as 57.9% of them finish under the total. Expect this trend to last about as long as the Cowboys did in the NFC playoffs.
Verdict: Trick