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Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Value Valley: The Suns won’t have Cameron Johnson or Chris Paul in the lineup against Chicago. Cameron Payne (60% available) has struggled with his shot in recent games, but has sustained elite passing production (10 APG over the last three). Jae Crowder missed the team’s recent game with a groin injury and is listed as questionable for Friday. If Crowder can’t go, Torrey Craig (99%) notably played 34 minutes and posted 21 points and 17 combined rebounds and dimes against Houston this past Wednesday.
The Double O: Onyeka Okongwu is available in over 96% of ESPN leagues, something that is surprising given the uncertainty of John Collins. Okongwu has scored at least 12 points in the three games Collins has missed recently, shooting 67% from the field and grabbing at least five boards in each of those contests. Those are numbers that deserve a bit more run (21 minutes per game) and in a pace up spot against the fastest team in the NBA, he’s a viable big tonight and down the stretch.
The Double B: Bruce Brown (81% available) isn’t a perfect player, but given his production at home and the Nets’ remaining schedule, he’s worth a look. In all three home games this month, he’s given you at least 27 points + assists + plus + rebounds and more importantly, he’s playing nearly 38 minutes a night. Brown draws the third least efficient defense in the NBA tonight and is worth a look in all formats.
Blazing in Brooklyn: The Nets host the Trail Blazers tonight in a game that features several strong streaming and DFS plays. We’ve talked up Portland’s rotation lately given just how much production is coming from widely-available options such as Josh Hart (96%),and the frontcourt tandem of Drew Eubanks (96%) and Trendon Watford (84%). Even guard Brandon Williams (96%) has averaged 35 MPG during the last week. Beyond Brown’s aforementioned value for Brooklyn, Goran Dragic (95% available) takes over playmaking duties when Kyrie Irving is unavailable. Andre Drummond (51%) could feast on the glass against Portland’s undersized roster, while Nic Claxton (96%) is a nice candidate for combined points and rebounds.
Headband Man: Jordan Clarkson (44% available) is going to score some points tonight. Utah won’t have Donovan Mitchell or Bojan Bogdanovic in the lineup against the Clippers. Clarkson has games of 26 and 45 points in his past three outings and has lofted 12.3 3-pointers per 36 minutes with Mitchell and Bogdanovic off the floor this season (five more than any other Jazz player). It’s an ideal setup for a scoring guard who claims a unique brand of confidence.
Star Watch: Ja Morant missed the Grizzlies’ game on Tuesday and is questionable for tonight’s tilt against the Hawks. If Morant misses the game, Tyus Jones (96% available) is fresh from posting 10 dimes against Indiana. Atlanta’s Trae Young is also questionable with a quad injury. Young’s absence would make Bogdan Bogdanovic (27%) a must-start option. Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox is questionable with hand injury that limited him in the Kings’ last game. This potentially sets up Davion Mitchell (95% available) as a key playmaker.
Game of the Night
Line: Suns (-6)
Moneyline: Suns (-270), Bulls (+220)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.5 points
BPI Win%: Suns (76.2%)
Key players ruled out: Cameron Johnson
Questionable: Jae Crowder (groin),
Notable: After covering three straight ATS (and six of seven), the Bulls have dropped eight of their past nine against the spread.
Best bet: DeMar DeRozan over 4.5 assists. DeRozan has followed up his awesome scoring stretch from earlier in the season by becoming more of a distributor of late. DeRozan has averaged 6.3 APG over the past seven games, and has gone over 4.5 assists in six them. — André Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Line: 76ers (-4.5)
Moneyline: 76ers (-136), Mavericks (+114)
Total: 221.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (59.3%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Joel Embiid (back)
Notable: Overs are 8-3-1 in Philadelphia’s past 12 games (Wednesday’s win over the Cavs went 12 points over Vegas’ projection).
Fantasy Streamer: Dorian Finney-Smith (75% available). The Mavs will be without Reggie Bullock again tonight, which positions Finney-Smith as a streamer. He has averaged 15.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.0 SPG over the past eight games and has been a great contributor to the team. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Tobias Harris over 15.5 points. Harris had a slow start to the James Harden era in Philadelphia (11.8 PPG, 39.1 FG% in first six games post ASB) but has settled in and picked up steam of late, averaging 17.8 PPG on 54.0 FG% in his last four games. If Embiid sits or is limited, Harris could have an even larger scoring role than usual. — Snellings
Line: Knicks (-5)
Moneyline: Knicks (-210), Wizards (+175)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (68.7%)
Key players ruled out: Nerlens Noel
Notable: After failing to cover six straight games, the Knicks have now covered seven in-a-row (they are 4-3 outright in those seven games).
Line: Raptors (-9)
Moneyline: Raptors (-400), Lakers (+310)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 221 points
BPI Win%: Raptors (77.7%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Talen Horton-Tucker
Notable: In their quest to get out of the play-in tournament, the Raptors have covered each of their past five games (three coming when they were favored).
Best bet: Scottie Barnes over 28.5 points+ assists + rebounds. Barnes has been very productive over the past six games for the Raptors. He’s averaged 19.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and 4.0 APG in 38.7 MPG in that span and is well-positioned for a monster game against a Lakers team ranked 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Best bet: Raptors -9 over Lakers. The Lakers have lost three straight games and five of their last six, including an 11-point loss to the Raptors in Los Angeles just four days ago. They’ve lost their last three by a total of 60 points. Meanwhile, the Raptors won the last five games of their road trip and have played like a different team since Fred VanVleet returned from injury. — Snellings
Line: Grizzlies (-3.5)
Moneyline: Grizzlies (-205), Hawks (+170)
Total: 235.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (57.2%)
Key players ruled out: John Collins
Questionable: Ja Morant (back), Trae Young (quad bruise), Danilo Gallinari (biceps)
Notable: Four straight Memphis games have gone over the total, this coming on the heels of a 5-1 stretch for unders.
Fantasy Streamer: Onyeka Okongwu. Clint Capela and Okongwu (96.4% available) will benefit from John Collins absence. Okongwu has averaged 13 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, and 1.0 BPG over the past three games. — Moody
Line: Nets (-13.5)
Moneyline: Nets (-1100), Blazers (+700)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Nets (86.4%)
Key players ruled out: Eric Bledsoe, Anfernee Simons
Notable: The Nets are 3-15 ATS in their past 18 home games (over tickets have cashed in six of the past nine such games).
Fantasy Streamer: Trendon Watford (84% available) has stepped into a leading role for the rebuilding, injury-ravaged Trail Blazers as of late. the 21-year old power forward has averaged 16.9 PPG (47.7 FG%, 87.5 FT%), 7.7 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 BPG and 0.9 3PG in 32.9 MPG over the past seven games — Snellings
Line: Nuggets (-2.5)
Moneyline: Nuggets (-145), Cavaliers (+125)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (58.6%)
Key players ruled out: Rajon Rondo, Jarrett Allen
Notable: The Cavaliers have failed to cover six of their past seven games as an underdog.
Best bet: Darius Garland over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Cavaliers needed even more from Garland with Rajon Rondo out and he delivered. He has averaged 26.5 PPG, 10.4 APG, and 4.0 RPG over the past eight games and Denver has been terrorized by opposing point guards all season, surrendering 24.3 PPG, 9.0 APG, and 6.5 RPG. — Moody
Line: Heat (-15)
Moneyline: Heat (-1700), Thunder (+900)
Total: 220 points
BPI Projected Total: 226 points
BPI Win%: Heat (90.8%)
Key players ruled out: Caleb Martin
Questionable: Jimmy Butler (ankle), P.J. Tucker (knee)
Notable: After covering four straight games, the Heat are just 1-3-1 ATS over their past five.
Fantasy Streamer: Darius Bazley is having a monster week and has averaged 26.3 PPG (56.6 FG%), 7.7 RPG, 3.7 3PG and 2.3 APG over the past three games. — Snellings
Line: Pacers (-3)
Moneyline: Pacers (-150), Rockets (+130)
Total: 239.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.5 points
BPI Win%: Rockets (51.2%)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Goga Bitadze (foot), Chris Duarte (toe), Eric Gordon (illness)
Notable: Overs are 4-1 in Houston’s past five games, this run coming on the heels of a 5-1 stretch for the unders.
Line: Spurs (-3.5)
Moneyline: Spurs (-160), Pelicans (+140)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 227 points
BPI Win%: Spurs (-160)
Key players ruled out: none
Questionable: Jose Alvarado (finger), Devonte’ Graham (right hip soreness)
Notable: The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS over their past six games and five of those games have gone over the total.
Line: Jazz (-6)
Moneyline: Jazz (-240), Clippers (+200)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 215 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (68.5%)
Key players ruled out: Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic
Notable: The Jazz are 7-2-1 in their past 10 games in front of the Utah faithful.
Fantasy Streamer Royce O’Neale O’Neale (91% available) is a viable streamer in deeper formats and the Jazz will need to rely him on the perimeter with Mitchell and Bogdanovic out. He’s averaged 9.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.3 APG over the last six games. — Moody
Line: Celtics (-9)
Moneyline: Celtics (-440), Kings (+340)
Total: 225
BPI Projected Total: 215 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (73.4%)
Key players ruled out: Jeremy Lamb
Questionable: De’Aaron Fox (hand)
Notable: The Celtics have seen three of four games go under the total after seven of eight Boston games had gone over the number.
Analytics Edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Houston Rockets (119.3 points)
2. Brooklyn Nets (119.2 points)
3. Indiana Pacers (118.9 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (100.7 points)
2. Sacramento Kings (104 points)
3. LA Clippers (104.8 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Miami Heat (90.8%)
2. Brooklyn Nets (86.4%)
3. Toronto Raptors (77.7%)