It has been a wild two weeks in the NFL, from shocking trades involving top-tier quarterbacks (and a certain big-name receiver) to big-money signings in free agency. First-round picks in the 2022 NFL draft have changed hands, team needs have been checked off and the makeup of the entire league — most notably the AFC West — has been shaken up. And we’re still waiting for plenty of high-end players on the open market to sign and likely another handful of quarterback changes.
But what does the chaos and movement mean for next month’s draft? How have the signings and trades over the past two weeks altered what we’re expecting when Round 1 begins? And will teams approach their first-round picks differently after already addressing needs in the early parts of the offseason?
NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid looked at five major draft-related takeaways from free agency and the trade market, including how the wheeling and dealing impacted how Day 1 could play out. Let’s begin with what free agency tells us about one position of interest for the 2022 class.
The NFL thinks highly of this year’s cornerback draft class
Reid: J.C. Jackson and Carlton Davis were considered the two cornerback prizes of free agency, and each landed a decent deal. Jackson went to the Los Angeles Chargers on a five-year, $82.5 million deal, and Davis went back to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at three years and $45 million. But outside of those two players, the cornerback market has been slow. Teams have been hesitant with handing out big money to cornerbacks. And with prospects like Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati), Derek Stingley Jr. (LSU) and Trent McDuffie (Washington) all expected to be top-20 picks, the slow-playing of the CB market makes sense. Not only is this a strong group in the first round, but there’s also depth in later rounds.
Miller: I couldn’t agree more, Jordan. The New York Jets, for example, signed a good player in D.J. Reed but still have multiple needs at the cornerback position. The New York Giants sit one pick behind them at No. 5 overall and could address cornerback in Round 1 after making two offensive line additions in free agency. For my money, Gardner is the standalone CB1 in this class, and it’s starting to look very possible he’ll be a top-five pick.
Reid: We both have Gardner as the clear frontrunner for the CB1 spot after a highly decorated career and checking a lot of boxes at the combine, but don’t forget about Stingley. Lots of eyes will be on him at LSU’s pro day on April 6. The biggest question with Stingley is durability. He missed 15 games over the past two seasons after a historic freshman campaign, and that injury history is concerning to some teams.
Miller: Yeah, what is he going to run in the 40-yard dash? We’ve both seen film where he looks like a surefire top-five pick, but it is from 2019. How much stock will teams put in that?
Reid: As for teams to watch, you mentioned the Jets and Giants, but don’t sleep on the Houston Texans at No. 3 overall. That may seem a bit earlier than expected for a corner, but based on what I’m hearing, teams are extremely high on this year’s group and will want to dive in early. From there, the Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles are just a few of the many teams inside of the top 20 that could look this way. Expect as many as five cornerbacks to be selected on Day 1, and there’s always the possibility of some surprises.
Miller: There will be options. Behind Gardner and Stingley on boards, there are two potential first-rounders out of Washington in McDuffie and Kyler Gordon. McDuffie’s short arms may worry some teams, but I love his feistiness at the line of scrimmage and his ability to mirror and match in coverage. Gordon was expected to put on a show at the combine and turned in a disappointing 4.52-second run in the 40-yard dash, but his tape shows a much more fluid defender. I still believe he has a chance to be selected in the top 32 picks. Other names to know include Auburn’s Roger McCreary, Clemson’s Andrew Booth Jr. and Florida’s Kaiir Elam.
Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is now the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall
Miller: As soon as the Jacksonville Jaguars secured the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, all signs pointed to an offensive tackle coming to town to protect the blindside of second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence after he was sacked 32 times last fall. But with the Jaguars placing the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson for the second-consecutive season and signing five-time Pro Bowler Brandon Scherff at right guard, the new signs point to GM Trent Baalke and new coach Doug Pederson falling for Hutchinson, my top overall prospect in the draft.
Reid: The Robinson franchise tag completely reshuffled the deck at No. 1 overall. It seemed the Jags’ most likely choices were down to offensive tackles Ikem Ekwonu (NC State) and Evan Neal (Alabama), but now it seems like the team will address defense. Jacksonville signed Scherff to a three-year, $52.5 million deal, and it’s on the hook for $16.6 million for Robinson’s tag.
Miller: The Jaguars could still surprise us, of course — I’m old enough to remember the Blake Bortles pick — but it does seem right now we’re down to Hutchinson and Ekwonu at the top. Hutchinson fills a huge need and is most evaluator’s top prospect. I’m still intrigued by Ekwonu, though. If Jacksonville wants to build a wall in front of Lawrence, drafting Ickey to play right tackle or guard (he’s versatile enough) in Year 1 and then potentially having him replace Robinson in 2023 is a possibility. And it’s definitely an outcome that the Detroit Lions should be hoping for at No. 2 overall, since they’d then be able to draft Hutchinson.
1:30
Todd McShay shares why he has the Jaguars taking Aidan Hutchinson in his most recent mock draft.
Reid: Let’s say Hutchinson goes at the top. Suddenly, the Texans, Jets, Giants and Carolina Panthers are sitting in a really good spot with the top end of this offensive tackle class, which also includes Mississippi State’s Charles Cross and Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning. We can scratch off the Lions because they are pretty much set along the offensive line right now. That leaves all of the tackles on the board for these four teams (and the Jets and Giants have two chances to land one in the top 10).
Laremy Tunsil is back at left tackle for Houston after a contract restructure, but the Texans could go a lot of different directions, including adding another tackle. Jets GM Joe Douglas has done a solid job of fortifying the protection in front of Zach Wilson by signing guard Laken Tomlinson, and defensive end and cornerback are still atop the needs column, but right tackle could also be an option. George Fant played well last year, but a younger option is never a bad approach (and remember, Morgan Moses signed in Baltimore). The Giants and Panthers are the most likely landing spots for an offensive tackle right now, but there are serious QB questions in Carolina, and the clock is ticking on the Matt Rhule regime to win.
There will be at least five first-round receivers for the third straight year — and for the first time since 2002, the Packers will be among the teams that draft one of them
Reid: What once promised to be a great free-agent wide receiver class ended up a little light at the top. Davante Adams was franchise-tagged and then traded. Mike Williams, Chris Godwin and Michael Gallup all signed new deals with their respective teams. Allen Robinson II went to a team already loaded at the position. And Odell Beckham Jr. is recovering from a torn ACL. That’s all to say that a lot of teams that needed receivers still do.
Over the past few seasons, we’ve seen how quickly drafted receivers can have an NFL impact. The former LSU pairing in Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase hit the ground running as rookies and went on to have historic seasons. The trend with first-round pass-catchers appears as though it’s going to continue, thanks to another strong receiver class at the top. I don’t think we’ll see a run of receivers in the top 10 like we saw last April, with Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith all going early, but they could start coming off the board fast with the Jets at No. 10 overall. This class could be more reminiscent of what we saw in 2020, when six receivers came off the board in between the Nos. 12-25. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson is currently my top-ranked receiver, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if USC’s Drake London ends up as the first receiver off of the board.
Miller: The race for WR1 is certainly interesting, and I think it will hinge on scheme fit as much as the talent of the receivers. But as you said, Jordan, I don’t expect an early run on the position this year. That may have been the case before London and Alabama’s duo of Jameson Williams and John Metchie III suffered injuries last season, but now it does look like the first receiver off the board will come with a double-digit pick. One trend I’ll be watching is what the Green Bay Packers do to replace Adams, who was just traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. With two picks in the first round, they could reshape their wide receiver room — but they also haven’t drafted a wideout in the first round in 20 years. Is this the year we see Green Bay add someone like Treylon Burks (Arkansas) or Chris Olave (Ohio State) in Round 1?
Reid: The draft philosophy of Packers GM Brian Gutekunst will be put to the test. The second round has been the ideal sweet spot for the Packers when it comes to receivers over the past two decades. Adams, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and James Jones were all selected on Day 2. Green Bay hasn’t selected a wideout in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002, but Gutekunst may have to stray away from some of the franchise’s prior tendencies.
Miller: And the Packers aren’t the only playoff team that has a big need at wide receiver, Jordan. Looking at the clubs that made the playoffs last year, the Eagles (No. 19 overall), Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20), New England Patriots (No. 21), Dallas Cowboys (No. 24), Buffalo Bills (No. 25), Tennessee Titans (No. 26) and Kansas City Chiefs (No. 30) could all very easily draft a receiver in Round 1. So while we’re watching Wilson, London and Williams, we also have to keep an eye on Olave, Burks, Jahan Dotson (Penn State), Christian Watson (North Dakota State), George Pickens (Georgia) and maybe even Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) as late-first-round picks, given how much need there is right now for wide receivers.
Drafting receivers should become a much more attractive method for team-building than signing free agents, considering Adams is making $28.5 million per season and the likes of Christian Kirk can get a massive four-year, $84 million deal on the open market.
The quarterbacks could be falling (even more) after free agency and trades
Miller: The new league year began with a half dozen teams needing an answer at the quarterback position, but thanks to trades, many of those holes have been filled … or at least pushed down the board. The Denver Broncos owned the No. 9 pick overall and traded for Russell Wilson. The Washington Commanders have pick No. 11 overall and traded for Carson Wentz. At No. 12 overall, the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins to an extension. The Steelers — No. 20 overall — signed Mitchell Trubisky.
This leaves us with fewer teams needing a quarterback, and many of the teams that do need one will likely wait until Day 2 to address it. For Malik Willis (Liberty), Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh), Matt Corral (Ole Miss) and Co., this could be bad news.
Reid: Leading up to free agency, the teams that needed signal-callers were easy to identify. Spots have filled quickly. And there still are veterans out on the open market, including Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, who will take up some more spots. Deshaun Watson‘s trade to the Cleveland Browns now makes Baker Mayfield available. Those passers will all fill more spots. Bottom line, the NFL is revealing its hand on how it feels about this quarterback class.
1:01
Ryan Clark weighs in on Mitchell Trubisky’s signing with the Steelers.
Miller: Yeah, in looking at my updated team needs list, only five teams have a definite need at the position: Detroit, Carolina, Indianapolis, Seattle and New Orleans. Mayfield and possibly even the Falcons’ Matt Ryan might fill two of those spots, but Ryan moving would create another in Atlanta. But it’s starting to feel like the quarterbacks in Round 1 could really drop. Seattle isn’t expected to take a QB at No. 9 overall, and the same goes for the Saints at No. 18 overall. Indianapolis doesn’t even have a first-rounder after trading for Wentz last offseason. Unless the Lions surprise us at No. 2 overall and select Willis, I have a feeling we won’t see a quarterback drafted in the top 20 picks this year.
Reid: Agreed. Seattle at No. 9 is interesting, but it seems poised to go with Drew Lock at least for next season. But keep a close eye on the surprise that you mentioned — Willis to the Lions at No. 2 overall isn’t out of the question, especially now that Hutchinson likely won’t still be there. The franchise already has their bridge in place in Jared Goff, which would allow it to bring Willis along slowly. And the Lions were able to coach him during a productive week at the Senior Bowl.
Willis and Pickett are the two QBs who seem likely for the first round right now, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Corral, Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati) or even Sam Howell (UNC) find their way into the Day 1 mix. As for the order of when they will be selected, this is one of the more mysterious QB groups we’ve seen in recent memory.
Teams with multiple first-round picks in 2022 have been hesitant to spend in free agency — and need to ace their Day 1 selections in April
Reid: Outside of the Jets, teams with multiple first-round picks have been selective with where they have used their cap space. The Eagles are the only team with three picks in the first round, but after making a somewhat-splashy move by signing edge rusher Haason Reddick, they’ve been relatively quiet with additions to the roster. The Giants, Lions and Texans have mostly been involved in short-term deals. The Packers just joined the multiple-pick mix, and they also haven’t added much in terms of outside free agents.
The 2022 draft class has depth at multiple positions outside of quarterback, and teams see an opportunity to make smaller free-agency moves and then use their multiple first-rounders to add long-term starters early on in the draft.
Miller: I see this as a situation, too, where these teams know they’re not a marquee free agent away from competing. The Jets almost had to spend because Douglas needs this team to show improvement, but the rest are either new GMs like Joe Schoen or entrenched veterans like Howie Roseman and Brian Gutekunst.
The Eagles are pushing the chips in on Jalen Hurts at quarterback and must get three starters around him out of Round 1. The same with the Jets and Giants as they support young quarterbacks. The Lions and Texans have a lot of holes (Houston has multiple Day 1 picks in each of the next three drafts now to fill them), and the Packers needs to justify the trade they just made with impact prospects. The pressure is on these front offices to walk away from April 28 with rookie starters.