There is an old saying in the fantasy sports world that it is considerably better to avoid investing in an aging player one season before the inevitable crater of statistics, rather than end up caught when the player shows his clear decline and it tanks your fantasy team. Hey, I am all for avoiding this risk, but I also refuse to assume that every old player is going to suddenly and sharply decline this season. For Washington Nationals DH Nelson Cruz and St. Louis Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright, the end may be nigh, but “nigh” is probably not here quite yet.
Cruz, ridiculously going outside the top-150 players in NFBC drafts, last failed to reach 30 home runs in a full MLB season back in 2013. Cruz whacked 32 home runs last year while hitting .265. The batting average was a concern and most of the problem occurred after the late-July trade to the Tampa Bay Rays. Cruz struggled over the final two months. Was he hurt? Did something change? He was 40. Did he struggle because he was 40? The Nationals clearly do not think so, signing him to be their DH and Juan Soto‘s lineup-spot protector. I rank Cruz in my roto top-100 overall. I expect an excellent season.
Wainwright is ridiculously going even later than Cruz — and barely inside the top-200 overall. He finished last season among the top-10 starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater. He won 17 games with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 174 strikeouts. Nobody expects quite those numbers again, but it also seems quite silly to pretend they did not happen. Wainwright modified his approach prior to 2020, figuring out how to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes, throwing them more often, cutting down his walk rate and relying on the strong Cardinals defense behind him. Yes, he was 39 last season. So what? I rank Wainwright in my top-100 overall and I’m investing in him everywhere.
Fantasy baseball is often about value and, when it comes to the oft-misunderstood “Do Draft” list, value is key. I study ADP and find gaps in my thinking and, well, conventional thinking. Everyone loves the rookies. Fantasy managers far and wide covet Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman and myriad others who have yet to fail at the big league level. They ignore the older players — even the proven ones who are still incredibly relevant statistically. Cruz struggled a bit down the stretch last season, and I acknowledge minor concerns there, in both exit velocity and his ability to stay healthy. Wainwright had no such issues. The common theme for them is age, and managers overlooking them. Well, I do not.
Not all the players that tend to keep showing up on my fantasy teams are of the older variety. Some are young, too! The purpose of this column is to find differences in value in relation to the NFBC ADP. These are the players I would target at the right spots. (I cannot use standard ESPN ADP, since it includes points-based leagues). We would all love to select top-10 picks like Soto, Trea Turner and Gerrit Cole, but you will not find those names in this column. That is simply too easy. Here are some players who, like Cruz and Wainwright, are going too late in ADP in my opinion. These are the guys to target.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros: Bregman hit .296 with 41 home runs in 2019 and, since then, has been a different player. Is that it? Is it all over? Bregman played through wrist issues last season and had offseason surgery. He says all is well now and while we can offer skepticism at more 40-HR seasons, this is still a fantastic player, albeit one barely among the top 100 in NFBC drafts. I guess I do not understand. No, Bregman may not steal bases anymore, but a four-category fantasy option awaits in the top 50.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox: He finished among the top-20 outfielders on the 2021 Player Rater and yes, he played enough outfield to qualify there. As he enters his age-34 season, I am curious why people do not believe he can repeat. Martinez struggled in 2020. So did myriad others. He returned to stardom in 2021. A 30/100 season with a strong batting average is coming yet again. He warrants a top-50 spot in roto leagues, but is barely top 100 in NFBC ADP.
Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta Braves: The oldest of the 17 hurlers to eclipse 200 strikeouts last season, Morton showed no signs of decline at age 37 and his past three full MLB seasons — with three different franchises — have been nearly identical. Morton is safe and reliable and, while you may be passing him up because you recall his fibula breaking in the World Series last season, he is fine now. In fact, he remains underrated, and among my top-20 starting pitchers.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels: One injury-plagued season and everyone wants to run away. Go look up Rendon’s other seasons, as he supplied both power and batting average — solid security. The Angels offer a tremendous lineup when the hitters are healthy and today, well, they are. Rendon may not bounce back quite to his 2019 level, as with Bregman, but I am not sure why so many seem so skeptical.
Max Muncy, 1B/2B, Los Angeles Dodgers: An elbow injury cost Muncy his postseason, and he was originally expected to start this season delayed, but now that is no longer the case. He is back. He is hitting, throwing and doing it all. This is a player with multi-eligibility who has mashed 35 home runs in each of the last three full MLB seasons. Muncy is all over my teams in roto, and well within the top 100. Other middle-infield types I seem to be getting include Muncy’s Dodgers pal Chris Taylor, Seattle Mariners 1B/2B Ty France and Colorado Rockies 2B/3B Ryan McMahon.
Blake Treinen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Kenley Jansen is gone and I find it hard to believe manager Dave Roberts is going to make the ninth inning a committee. Treinen was the top relief pitcher in last season’s Dodgers bullpen, and he has extensive closing experience. Frankly, I would prefer Treinen to Jansen, but either way, this should be a top-10 closer on draft day. Other closers I appear to recommend more than most include Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Mark Melancon, Philadelphia Phillies RHP Corey Knebel, Red Sox RHP Matt Barnes and Milwaukee Brewers RHP Devin Williams, who is worth a draft pick even if he ends up with nary a save.
Trey Mancini, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: Mancini missed the 2020 season battling cancer, but he returned last season to play in 147 games and hit 21 home runs. I think he returns to his pre-2020 levels and flirts with 30 home runs and 100 RBI, while hitting .270. It may not make him a top-100 option, but as a corner infielder for your standard league roto team, he is not bad at all. Other corner infielders I seem to like more than most include Chicago Cubs 1B Frank Schwindel (BABIP aside, it all looked legit to me!), Red Sox 1B Bobby Dalbec (Triston Casas is guaranteed nothing) and Oakland Athletics rookie 3B Kevin Smith, who will play.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, San Francisco Giants: Everything about his surprising 2021 season looks legit to me. His FIP was close to his ERA. His strikeout rate rose back to pre-2020 levels. He was excellent in road games as well as home games and induced more groundballs than in any previous season. He seems like a rather safe investment in a pitcher’s park, and he goes after the top-200 picks. I would invest in his new teammate Alex Cobb as well. Other starting pitchers I seem to be getting in the latter rounds include young Twins Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, new Texas Rangers RHP Jon Gray (stunning for me, but he has legit skills), Brewers lefty Aaron Ashby and several Astros, from ace Justin Verlander to Luis Garcia, Framber Valdez and Jose Urquidy.
Michael Brantley, OF, Houston Astros: Batting average still matters, at least in the leagues in which it matters. Brantley has hit .300 in four consecutive seasons, and the metrics say he was a bit unlucky to finish in single-digits in home runs last season. I think one more 15-HR, 75-RBI season is plausible, but he is going so late in most drafts (outside the top 250) that there is little risk in attempting to find out. Other outfielders that make sense to me as your final options in five-outfielder formats include the Twins’ Max Kepler and Dominic Smith of the New York Mets. Plus, you bet I will take the chance on rookies such as the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez (he could be amazing — and around in April) and the Rays’ Josh Lowe.