Welcome to the final 2022 NFL draft notebook of the season. Analysts Jordan Reid and Matt Miller spill all the latest news and rumors from around the league surrounding what’s sure to be one of the most exciting draft classes in quite some time.
With less than one week to go until draft weekend kicks off in Las Vegas (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and ABC), they are hearing more from their sources on the key questions of the class. Where do the quarterbacks actually land — and do either Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett make it into the top 10 picks? What about a major trade that could throw off mock drafts? Jordan and Matt break that down while also giving their favorite sleepers as we all try to find the next George Kittle or Trey Smith on Day 3.
And finally, stick around for the latest buzz including what Jordan is hearing about the No. 1 overall pick, where Matt thinks the Giants could go with two selections in the top 10 and what the analysts are being told on Baker Mayfield and whether he will be traded during the draft.
Let’s start with two interesting questions:
Jump to a topic:
Where will the QBs really land?
Our favorite sleeper prospects
Smoke screen by the Steelers?
Could the Jags pull off a surprise?
Why a cornerback is rising
The big questions
What’s a trade up or down that absolutely should happen in Round 1?
Reid: This is an easy one for me, and it’s the Chiefs trading up for wide receiver Jameson Williams. With a dozen draft picks in hand — the most of any team in this draft — they aren’t in a position to fit 12 rookies on their roster. They should spend some of that draft capital, which includes six picks in the first three rounds, to attempt to replace Tyreek Hill. Williams has some of the qualities the former All-Pro receiver brought to the offense.
As for how Kansas City can make it happen? The sweet spot for Williams might be in the top 15. The Chiefs could package a combination of pick Nos. 29, 30, 50, 62, 94 and 103 to get up there. The Eagles (Nos. 15 and 18), Saints (Nos. 16 and 19) and Chargers (No. 17) are the teams they’ll need to move ahead.
Where will the quarterbacks really land in Round 1?
Miller: The biggest mystery in this draft isn’t where former five-star prospects Kyle Hamilton, Kayvon Thibodeaux or Derek Stingley Jr. will land. No, it’s where will the quarterbacks really come off the board? For months we’ve speculated that some team will reach for one of them inside the top 10 due to desperation at the position. The Panthers didn’t acquire Deshaun Watson after trying hard, leading many to speculate that they would draft a quarterback at No. 6 overall.
I’m not so sure. As the draft nears, the momentum that swung Kenny Pickett (Pitt) and Malik Willis (Liberty) up the board seems to be swinging back the other way. In conversations with league sources this week, one told me that Pickett to the Steelers at No. 20 is the only Round 1 quarterback on which he would bet.
That’s not good news for Willis, who could realistically slide to the 20s and tempt a team such as the Lions to come back up and get him (they have the Nos 32 and 34 picks). Or, perhaps it’s one last smoke-screen attempt. But the buzz surrounding Pickett, Willis, Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati) and the other passers has quieted down to a point that just one first-round quarterback wouldn’t surprise me.
Our favorite sleeper prospects
Here are six Day 3 prospects Miller and Reid like in this class:
Pierre Strong Jr., RB, South Dakota State
Strong, true to his name, is a powerful runner with inside-outside vision and a slasher mentality as an outside zone rusher. At 5-foot-11, 207 pounds, he turned in an eye-opening 4.37-second 40-yard dash at the combine and looked the part throughout positional drills.
Strong isn’t likely to be a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, but the 2021 FCS All-American — who led the conference with 1,686 yards last season — has the tools to become a starting back in the NFL.
Projection: Round 4 to the Dolphins — Miller
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Check out the best highlights that contributed to a stellar college career for South Dakota State’s Pierre Strong Jr.
Matthew Butler, DT, Tennessee
My first exposure to Butler came during practices at the East-West Shrine Bowl, and I thought he was the best player there. After playing in 53 career games in Knoxville, he finished with 8.5 tackles for loss and five sacks during his senior season. Butler is an explosive 3-technique tackle with a quick first step and is able to marry his hands with his feet often.
He isn’t talked about much, but he could be an eventual starter.
Projection: Round 4 to the Raiders — Reid
Bailey Zappe, Quarterback, Western Kentucky
Catchability is a big part of how I evaluate quarterbacks — meaning, quite simply, do you throw passes that are easily catchable by the intended target? Zappe does that as well as any quarterback in the class, with a beautiful deep ball and well-timed intermediate passes that are consistently on target.
His level of competition at Houston Baptist and then Western Kentucky leaves something to be desired, but I’ll take a Day 3 bet on a player who threw 62 touchdown passes and for almost 6,000 yards in a season.
Projection: Round 5 to the Packers — Miller
Dohnovan West, C, Arizona State
If I were a general manager in search of help along the offensive line, West is a prospect I would have circled to add during Day 3. He spent time at all three interior spots and has mature hands, plenty of strength and is a versatile blocker. At 20 years old on draft day, he is one of the youngest prospects in this class.
I wouldn’t be surprised if West snuck into the latter half of the third round.
Projection: Round 4 to the 49ers — Reid
JT Woods, Safety, Baylor
I’m with you, Jordan, in talking about how I’d do things as a general manager. One of my rules would be to always bet on physical traits on Day 3 picks. Woods fits that mold for me with a 4.36 40 at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds at the combine.
The former track star shows up on tape and has the raw coverage tools and range over the top to become a much better NFL safety once his technique catches up to his speed.
Projection: Round 4 to the Broncos — Miller
Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor
Thornton is a true vertical threat with blazing speed — his 4.28 40 at the combine shows up frequently on tape. At 6-foot-2, 181 pounds, he has a thin build, but he makes it difficult for defenders to get their hands on him because of his efficient route running.
Thornton averaged 15.3 yards per catch last season, and he can place stress on the third level of defenses. He can also open up other options underneath because of the respect for his straight-line speed.
Projection: Round 5 to the Falcons — Reid
News, notes and everything we heard this week
Miller: I’ve mentioned it before, but keep a close watch on the Giants and offensive tackle Charles Cross (Mississippi State). The buzz connecting these two has only continued to heat up as we near the draft. Cross met privately with the Giants recently — they own picks Nos. 5 and 7 — and there is a belief within their front office that he could be the answer at right tackle as a day one starter.
Reid: Travon Walker at No. 1 overall to the Jaguars? We are officially under a week until the first night of the draft, and U.S. sportsbooks have moved up his odds to go first. Six months ago, Walker was barely in the first-round discussion, but after a standout performance at the combine and the words “potential” and “upside” being pinned at the top of his scouting report, teams are buying into the idea of being able to unlock his development.
Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke, formerly with the 49ers, has been fond of prospects with high ceilings along the defensive line, and he might see shades of Aldon Smith in the former Georgia defensive lineman.
Miller: It might just be a late draft-season smoke screen, but there is a lot of chatter about the Steelers not being sold on quarterbacks other than Pitt’s Kenny Pickett in this class. The Steelers famously attended several pro days and had the top quarterbacks on their radar this offseason, but the rumors dominating the text lines this week have Pittsburgh potentially going offensive tackle in Round 1 if Pickett isn’t available.
Reid: I’ve been repeatedly told to pay close attention to the Lions with the No. 32 pick next week. That spot has been circled as a trade-up spot for teams looking to take a swing on a quarterback who falls to the back end of the first round. Similar to what we saw with Teddy Bridgewater in 2014 and Lamar Jackson in 2018, a team could look to trade up in order to secure the fifth-year option with a quarterback.
The name I’ve been told to keep an eye on is Sam Howell (North Carolina). The league is a bit higher on Howell than the media. “[Howell had the] best pro day that I saw during the circuit that we made. He spun the ball really nicely and we liked his tape after a rough start at the beginning,” a position coach from a QB-needy team told me this week.
Miller: The entire offseason has been wild with star players being traded, and sources I’ve spoken to expect the draft to keep the same pace — with a ton of activity.
One front-office executive I spoke to cautioned that teams hoping to trade back in Round 1 won’t see a huge return on investment because there aren’t star quarterbacks in this class. Teams trading up for quarterbacks usually pay a premium, including the 49ers and Bears last year. This year, don’t expect the asking price to be as high to move into the top 15.
Reid: A strong argument could be made that the Panthers are the most interesting team in this draft. They have the No. 6 pick, but their next selection isn’t until the back end of the fourth round (No. 137). Rumors surfaced this week that the franchise might be in favor of adding a veteran quarterback — such as Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo — over a rookie because of the pressure on coach Matt Rhule to win next season.
General manager Scott Fitterer has shown that he isn’t shy with trading back, and that might be Plan A in order to recoup the Day 2 picks that were lost after acquiring Sam Darnold. The Panthers also could look to take an offensive tackle. If available, Evan Neal (Alabama), Ikem Ekwonu (NC State) and Cross would all be instant-impact starters for a group that struggled a season ago.
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Take a look at Evan Neal’s résumé as an offensive lineman at Alabama and what he can bring to the NFL.
Miller: Where will Mayfield land and how will it affect the draft? A person close to the quarterback told me this week that Mayfield could be a post-draft trade for a team that doesn’t land a starter in the first round. Who might that be? It’s anyone’s guess right now, but as it stands, it doesn’t sound like a trade of the Browns’ former No. 1 overall pick will affect the first round of this draft.
Reid: One quote shared with me from an NFL area scout about this draft: “Expect the unexpected.” Without a consensus top quarterback in this class, there is a lot of mystery surrounding the first night of the event. This is the first time since 2018 we don’t know who the No. 1 pick will be or who the first signal-caller could be selected off the board.
Miller: LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. continues to rise the closer we get to the draft. So high, in fact, that he lands in the top five in my upcoming seven-round mock draft (releasing Tuesday morning). Stingley’s physical ability is a given, but teams to whom I’ve spoken reference his interviews as going exceptionally well and his medical reports coming back clean.
While Stingley didn’t look himself in three games in 2021, as one source told me: “He can’t control an injury. We’re bought in that he’ll return to his previous form.”