After an historic U.S. Open, the PGA Tour heads to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for the 2022 Travelers Championship starting on Thursday. The course is one of the shortest on Tour and will feature a loaded field including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy.
Which players are the favorites this time around? Who offers good odds? And what props are worthwhile?
Betting analysts Anita Marks, Chris “The Bear” Fallica, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and the Caddie, Michael Collins offer their tips to help you win this weekend.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Patrick Cantlay
Bearman’s picks: to win (12-1); top-10 finish (+150)
After Justin Thomas pulled out Wednesday, we pivot to Cantlay. The reigning PGA Tour player of the year hasn’t faired well in majors, but he did finish strong last Sunday to sneak out at T-14 finish. He finished T-15, T-15, T-11, T-13 in his last four appearances at TPC River Highlands and was first noticed on the world stage as an amateur here in 2011. None of his success should come as a surprise as Cantlay loves Pete Dye courses. His win in New Orleans with Xander Schauffele earlier this year was on a Dye course and the week before he finished runner-up at the RBC Heritage, another Dye course. His season so far has not been worthy of another POY award, but he does have seven top 10s. Cantlay ranks 18th off the tee, 25th tee-to-green, 15th in scrambling and 6th in birdie average. His metrics are set up perfectly for a Travelers win to launch the rest of the season and it’s not a major, so you know he has a good chance.
Rory McIlroy
Marks’ pick: To win (9-1)
McIlroy has a great track record at TPC River Highlands (T-17 or better his last three starts). His putting has been off the charts and he is coming off a U.S. Open where he was 1st in SGP (+9.73). McIlroy ranks 3rd in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 20th in SG: Approach the Green. I expect Rory to be in the final group on Sunday.
Sam Burns
Fallica’s picks: To win (16-1), top-10 finish (+175)
Burns has made a habit of winning the week after big events this year. He won at Innisbrook the week after the Players Championship and he won at Colonial the week after the PGA Championship. Another common denominator is short courses. You wont find a shorter track than River Highlands, where he’s improved his performance each year. In a very good field, his ability to go low after not really going through the grind of the U.S. Open like Scottie Scheffler did, should help him quite a bit.
Keegan Bradley
Fallica’s pick: to win (35-1), top-10 finish (+240)
Bradley played really well at Brookline despite falling out of contention early Sunday. He has had a good year, posting five Top 10s and three Top 5s in nine stroke play events. Bradley has been one of the better drivers of the ball all year and his putting has improved quite a bit. The New England native should have a little home field advantage in the crowd after finishing runner-up here in 2019.
Brian Harman
Bearman’s picks: To win (40-1); top-20 finish (+175)
Harman had a rough weekend in Boston, going from contention to T-47 with a 75-76 weekend. However, he has had success at TPC River Highlands with three top 10s in his last four appearances with the lone missed cut in 2020. The short course plays to Harman’s advantage as he ranks 12th in driving accuracy but 179th in drive distance. Whenever there is a short course with small greens, Harman is on my shortlist. I liked the way he was playing entering the weekend in Boston and see this as a bounce back spot for him.
Collins pick: To win (40-1)
Harman is in good form and playing at a course he loves. He has only missed the cut here twice since 2012. Harman does have four top-10 finishes and a scoring average of 68.5. If he is -16 this week and he should be holding the trophy after a playoff.
Marc Leishman
Bearman’s picks: To win (50-1); top-10 finish (+450)
Leishman quietly moved up the leaderboard last weekend for a T-14 finish at The Country Club. While he hasn’t won a title this year, he has put together a solid campaign, with three top-10s and eight top-25 finishes. He returns to the site of one of his earlier wins (2012) and has since added a T-11 in 2014, a T-9 in 2016 and a 3rd place finish last year. He’s made the cut in 10 of 11 trips to Cromwell and has the game (22nd on Par 4s and 31st in Scrambling) to earn his 7th PGA Tour victory. At 50-1, we are getting a solid price on Leishman against this stacked field. I’ll roll the dice on him on a short course with plenty of birdie opportunities.
Brendan Steele
Collins pick: To win (50-1)
Steele is a horse for the course at TPC River Highlands. Other than his three missed cuts, he’s never finished worse than 25th in 11 starts at Travelers. He told me Tuesday that he figured out something with his putter right before the PGA Championship.
Marc Leishman
Bearman’s picks: to win (50-1); top-10 finish (+450)
Leishman quietly moved up the leaderboard last weekend for a T-14 finish at The Country Club. While he hasn’t won a title this year, he has put together a solid campaign, with three top-10s and eight top-25 finishes. He returns to the site of one of his earlier wins (2012) and has since added a T-11 in 2014, a T-9 in 2016 and a 3rd place finish last year. He’s made the cut in 10 of 11 trips to Cromwell and has the game (22nd on Par 4s and 31st in Scrambling) to earn his 7th PGA Tour victory. At 50-1, we are getting a solid price on Leishman against this stacked field. I’ll roll the dice on him on a short course with plenty of birdie opportunities.
Props
Sungjae Im
Marks’ pick: top-5 finish (+600)
Im missed the cut at the US Open by one stroke, much due to a bad draw. He typically bounces back well after a cut, and I expect him to make a statement this week. Im ranks 12th in SG off the tee, 2nd in par 4 scoring, 8th in SG approach the green and 3rd in scrambling.
Beau Hossler
Collins pick: top-5 finish (35-1)
He had a runner-up finish here in 2018 and finished T-10 last year. Coming off a T-53 at the U.S. Open, Beau should be in great form at a course where he can finally make some birdies even if he misses the fairways.
Rory McIlroy
Bearman’s pick: Top-10 finish (+135)
No one has played better than McIlroy over the past two months. Dating back to his closing 64 at the Masters, Rory has a win, runner-up, two T-5s and an 8th place finish among his six consecutive top-20s. While he only has 3 appearances here, none have been worse than T-17. If I am picking one golfer to score a top finish, even if it’s with a late Sunday run, Rory is my guy. He leads the Tour in tee-to-green and strokes gained total, is 3rd off-the-tee and 22nd in scrambling. The plus money is a short price (as is his 10-1 win price), but it has been automatic money since April and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he wins another non-major here.
Patrick Cantlay
Fallica’s pick: Top-10 finish (+140)
This is a perfect landing spot for Cantlay, who backdoored a Top 15 at the U.S. Open last week. He’s got four straight Top 15s at the Travelers and any improvement from that puts him in the Top 10.
Jordan Spieth
Bearman’s pick: Top-10 finish (+225)
Spieth ushered a legendary finishing shot with his hole out from the bunker in the 2017 playoff. He is as good as it gets around the greens as he showed in 2017. His lack of consistent putting and accuracy off the tee will prevent me from taking him to win here again, but I would not be surprised to see him contend late.
Xander Schauffele
Bearman’s pick: Top-20 finish (+100)
Seeing Schauffele move up 19 spots on Sunday to cash another top-20 finish at the U.S. Open was a pleasant surprise. He has been a cash machine for props as long as you don’t fall in love with him winning events. Since his missed cut at Augusta, Schauffele has rolled off five consecutive top-20 finishes. Even if he’s out of contention, he ranks 3rd on Tour in final round scoring average which is exactly what we need.
Denny McCarthy
Marks’ pick: Top-20 finish (+200)
McCarthy enters Cromwell hot off the U.S. Open, where he shot a pair of 68s on Saturday and Sunday. His flat stick is on fire and he finished 8th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens in regulation at Brookline. I expect him to pick up where he left off last weekend.
K.H. Lee
Bearman’s pick: Top-20 finish (+275)
If it’s a TPC course, I am going to have Lee on my card somewhere. He won back-to-back titles at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas, finished 13th here in 2019 and entered last year’s final round in 6th before an 80 sent him to bottom of the leaderboard. For whatever reason, he’s had tremendous success on TPC courses and we are getting 2.5 times our money for a top-20 finish.
Patrick Rodgers
Marks’ pick: Top-40 finish (+140)
This is a special tourney for Rodgers, considering this was his first ever tour stop! He has made cut in 6 of his 7 starts, and finished 3rd here in 2016.
Seamus Power
Fallica’s picks: Tourney matchup (+100) vs. Sungjae Im; top-10 finish (+240), top-20 finish (+100)
Power has a really nicely rounded game and is coming off two top-12 finished at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship. Im missed the cut at the U.S. Open and while his metrics are nothing to scoff at, (five straight Top 25s prior to the U.S. Open) it feels a little empty given the expectations. Power posted a Top 20 here last year and I expect him to at least do the same this weekend.
Collins pick: Playoff to decide the winner (+310)
This tournament isn’t the U.S. Open, so there will be birdies flying all over the course. There has been four playoffs to decide this event in the last 10 years. Looking at the strength of field this week, we could have a 3-4 man playoff.