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Andre SnellingsESPN
As we head into Week 3 of the fantasy basketball season, there are a number of storylines I’m tracking closely that could directly impact my future fantasy basketball adds, waiver wire decisions and how long I’m willing to wait on certain players.
Here are the five things I’m keeping a close eye on this week:
Clippers’ risk outweighing reward early
Coming into the season, the risks associated with drafting Kawhi Leonard or Paul George were well known. With that said, their start to the season has to be disappointing to those that took the chance and drafted them anyway.
Leonard (knee) has only played in two games — for a total of 42 minutes — out of the six so far and has already been declared out for Monday. George has missed a game already as well due to illness, but even when he’s played he hasn’t performed at the level we’ve grown accustomed to with him. With the single exception of his 40 point, 6 rebound, 6 assist explosion in the second game of the season, George has yet to score more than 16 points in any other outing.
That exception, though, is the reason why so many are willing to take the risk on Leonard and George. Both are capable of producing those explosive games on the regular, if healthy and playing to standard. The Clippers play four games this week, with no back-to-backs, against non-ferocious defenses. The stages is as set as it can possibly be for George to get on track.
And, if Leonard were to get healthy enough to play by Wednesday, the lack of back-to-backs could be good for him as well, though he will almost certainly remain on a minutes limit when he’s first healthy enough to return. If either/both Clippers play well in the near future, it might be a good idea to put some feelers out in your league to see what their trade value might be. It’s likely at a low now, but a 40/6/6 game or two could work wonders in changing a player’s stars.
Rockets growing pains
Coming into the season, the young Rockets had some of my favorite upside plays from their incredibly young roster.
Alperen Sengun was one of my favorite sleeper/break-out candidates after Christian Wood was traded out of town; Jalen Green ended his rookie season with a string of 30-point scoring performances and seemed to continue the energy in the preseason; Kevin Porter Jr. had also finished last season strong and seemed ready to take off; Jabari Smith Jr. was a preseason Rookie of the Year contender; even unheralded rookie Tari Eason had torn up the Summer League and the preseason and seemed poised to produce fantasy basketball stats from the tip.
The thing is, only Porter and Smith have lived up to billing so far. Sengun opened the season still coming off the bench behind Bruno Fernando and was only playing 24 MPG going into the weekend. Green has struggled with his shot and is at under 40% from the field on the season. Eason has been playing less than 19 minutes per game, not enough time to contribute even at max efficiency. I’ve had people reach out to me on Twitter (@ProfessorDrz) to ask if they should pull the plug on Sengun, already.
My answer was that I’m not ready to punt on Sengun yet… after all, he did go for 23 and 12 in one of his three games off the bench, and was still averaging a 15.7 and 10 double-double. His playing time is also on the rise; he’s moved into the starting lineup with Fernando nursing a knee injury that is expected to sideline him for 2-3 weeks. If Sengun plays to level and shows the Rockets staff that he’s mature enough to start, he has the talent to hold onto the starting job moving forward.
As for Green, I consider him a solid buy-low candidate right now. Green showed last season that he’s got the skill set to be a consistent high-volume scorer in the NBA. When he has it working, he makes it look effortless. I expect that he’ll get it together sooner rather than later, and once he does he should shoot back up the rankings.
Similarly, Eason is likely available on the free agent wire in your league, but you should definitely keep an eye on him because at some point the Rockets are going to stop starting 33-year old Eric Gordon in a lineup that otherwise features four players age 22 and under. Jae’Sean Tate will likely get a crack at starting, but with the Rockets still deep in rebuild mode, I’d expect Eason to get a chance at big minutes at some point this season.
Ball and Garland soon?
The two youngest All Stars in the NBA have not been able to contribute much on the court yet this season. Ball suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain in the preseason and has yet to make his season debut, while Garland endured an eye injury 13 minutes into the season opener and hasn’t played since.
While neither player has announced a specific return date, I’m actively counting down until they might return to the court, with hopes that it could happen for either/both as soon as this week. I consider both to be strong trade-for-low candidates right now. Their values are both depressed, as fantasy managers just don’t like watching those DNPs pile up from players they drafted early.
I’d be particularly interested in trading for Ball. When I did my initial preseason projections, he projected as third overall in fantasy points, in a close scrum with Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid, behind only Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. I ultimately moved Doncic (he projected to a higher per game average) and Jayson Tatum (he has been reliably durable and plays a valued combo forward role) ahead of Ball as well, but that is the kind of company I expect him to keep when healthy.
If you can talk the impatient manager that currently rosters him into moving him, he could be the foundation of a championship level fantasy hoops squad.
I’m not as high on Garland as Ball, because Garland will have to compete with an ascending Donovan Mitchell and super sixth man Caris LeVert for usage when he returns. Nevertheless, Garland has the game to remain an impact FBA producer and could likely be had for below market value due to his injuries and the fast start of the aforementioned Spider Mitchell.
Cade against the machine
The Bucks have started the season like a well-oiled machine, despite the continued absence of All Star Khris Middleton. Part of the reason for their undefeated start — besides Giannis playing like a cyborg — has been their stellar defense. The Bucks currently rank first in the NBA in Defensive Rating, allowing only 102.9 points per 100 possessions to their opponents.
They’ve typically been hard on opposing lead guards, holding Kyrie Irving, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Brunson to a combined 17-for-46 shooting from the floor. With that said, both James Harden (31 points on 13-for-24 FG, 9 assists) and Trae Young (42 points on 15-for-32 FG), 5 assists, 5 3-pointers) put up big numbers in games against the Bucks that turned into track meets.
Enter Cade Cunningham. Cunningham has averaged 25.0 PPG and 6.0 APG in his last five games, including back-to-back near monster triple-doubles against the Hawks and Warriors. Cunninghtam starts the week with two games in Milwaukee, including the second half of a back-to-back on Monday.
Can Cunningham break down the Bucks’ defense and keep putting numbers on the board? He has the kind of size and all-around game that makes him a threat to explode against anyone. With that said, I personally won’t be playing Cunningham on any DFS squads with him having to deal with Jrue Holiday on the perimeter, then trying to finish over Giannis and Brook Lopez in the paint.
Lillard and the youngsters
The Trail Blazers are a team in transition. They are still Damian Lillard‘s team, when Lillard is healthy, but when he’s not the team is starting to look toward the backcourt of the future in 23-year-old Anfernee Simons and 19-year-old Shaedon Sharpe.
Simons, who typically starts at shooting guard next to Lillard, moved to the point guard this weekend with Lillard (calf) out. On Friday, Simons exploded for 30 points (10-for-20 FG), 7 3-pointers, 7 assists and 5 rebounds in 38 minutes; he projects to top-30 value for as long as Lillard is out.
Meanwhile, Sharpe moved into the starting lineup at shooting guard, and responded with a respectable 14 points (7-for-12 FG), 2 assists and 1 rebound in 29 minutes. Sharpe has now scored in double figures in three straight games, and is a worthy streaming option for as long as he holds the starting job.
Other things to watch
Scoring Kings with Keegan: I watched the Kings upset the Heat this weekend, and was struck by how potent the offense was. After the Kings took a commanding lead early, the Heat methodically chipped away at the lead and eventually took the lead in the fourth quarter.
However, even though All Star Domantas Sabonis fouled out, the Kings kept responding by making big shots until they eventually fought the Heat off. As a team, the Kings scored 119 points with a whopping 67.0 true shooting percentage (TS%), accounting for how hot they were from the field, the 3-point line and the free throw line.
While the Kings did have a hot shooting day on Saturday, a closer look at their lineup suggests this may not be a fluke. With rookie Keegan Murray now playing major minutes and providing almost 20 PPG, the Kings now start plus-offensive options at every position.
De’Aaron Fox is still a blur in the backcourt, with Kevin Huerter providing elite shooting from the off guard spot. Sabonis is one of the best scoring/passing big men in the league, and Harrison Barnes has always been a professional scorer from the midrange.
With Murray providing strong outside-in scoring from the four, the lineup has no offensive weaknesses. And it’s showing, with a growing sample size. Murray missed the first game of the season, and came off the bench for 32 minutes in the second game, and in those contests the Kings averaged a respectable 109 PPG on 46.4 FG%. But, in the last three games with Murray playing 38 MPG, the Kings have averaged 118 PPG on 49.8 FG%. Murray’s presence unlocks the upside for the rest of the lineup as well, which bodes well for the fantasy value of every Kings starter this season.
Three teams with two games: Small note, for those in weekly leagues — there are three teams with only two games this week. The Mavericks, Nuggets and Pacers only play twice, while 18 teams have three games and nine have four.
Clearly, you’re not sitting Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic or even Tyrese Haliburton, no matter how few games their teams might play. But, while players like Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Wood or Bennedict Mathurin might typically be every-week starter material, with only two games you might consider starting a less productive player that might have four starts on the docket for this week.