Major League Baseball is getting everyone excited about the stolen base by adjusting its rules, but this hardly means fantasy managers should simply go with the same old speedsters from last season. Miami Marlins 2B/3B Jon Berti and Baltimore Orioles SS Jorge Mateo led their respective leagues in the category last season. Neither is likely to do so again. In fact, there is hardly a guarantee these fellows play all that much again, and as a result, they make for poor fantasy investments.
My annual “Do Not Draft” list for fantasy baseball always comes with the important — yet often overlooked — caveat that we are talking about a player’s value in comparison to my actual thoughts on his likely statistical output — and we use average draft position to sort out the value. If you think Player X has 10th-round value but is going in Round 5, then — voila! — do not draft him there. Try to wait. In the case of Berti and Mateo, however, I’m not sure they are worth drafting at all.
We should also make the important point that stolen bases matter far more in rotisserie/category leagues than in points formats. As the ESPN fantasy staff’s roto dinosaur, still keeping a 5×5 mindset, stolen bases matter quite a bit, and fantasy managers should target good players who provide myriad statistics to help a fantasy team. Neither Berti nor Mateo approached a .700 OPS last season. Berti is a utility/bench guy, ideally. Mateo stars defensively, but that .267 OBP is a big problem. The Marlins and Orioles might not be contenders, but they must and should do better.
Playing time matters in fantasy baseball, and I tend to harp on a player’s lack of durability or injury risk in this annual column. However, baseball’s attempt to make the game more exciting has fantasy managers lusting for significant stolen base options. Berti and Mateo combined for more than 900 plate appearances last season, and they really did not deserve them. Berti stole 41 bases in 46 chances, but much of that came in June when the Marlins let him start 26 games. He was 18-of-19 in steals over that stretch. Miami’s current infield features newcomers Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, with Joey Wendle at shortstop. Berti is a likely reserve.
Mateo, who might have earned a Gold Glove last season had he hit better (yeah, it’s silly that offense plays a role in a defensive voting award, but that’s baseball), might start the season as Baltimore’s shortstop, but that might not last long. Gunnar Henderson, a Rookie of the Year candidate, for sure, can play both shortstop and third base. Jordan Westburg, another top prospect, also can handle either spot in the infield, and Joey Ortiz is just about ready for the majors. Ortiz is, like Mateo, a gifted defender. He’s also, unlike Mateo, an emerging hitter. Mateo had one of the worst walk rates in baseball last season (5.1%). His starting days are numbered.
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The players to avoid in fantasy baseball this season
Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft break down the players to not draft in fantasy baseball this season.
It is easy to say that fantasy managers looking for stolen bases should target the likes of Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Bobby Witt Jr. Who would not want these players? Look for the category early in roto drafts and aim to avoid the Berti/Mateo types later. We used to recommend that fantasy managers avoid speedster Billy Hamilton because all he did for a fantasy team was steal bases. He could not hit for average or provide power. Power is always at a premium, and rostering anyone who lacks power makes it more difficult to compete in the home run and RBI categories. Arraez might win another batting title, but he offers little power. With smaller active rosters in ESPN’s updated game, it is hard to rely on anyone who lacks power.
Here are other players who, based on their National Fantasy Baseball Championship roto average draft position (we cannot use ESPN ADP for this exercise, since it is based on our standard points format), I will not be drafting in roto leagues.
Edwin Diaz, RP, New York Mets: The league’s top relief pitcher is going in the top 30 of NFBC drafts, which is too early for me. I recognize the value of a safe, reliable closer in a roto or points format, especially with so much uncertainty, but missing out on a top hitter or ace (Diaz over Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado or Sandy Alcantara?) is too much for me. Let’s just throw any relief pitchers going in the top 50 into this grouping as well. After all, we all saw Josh Hader struggle at times last season. Do you really feel safe with Hader in 2023?
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers: The former Met found a monster payday in the American League, and there should be little doubt about how deGrom performs when he is on the mound. He has a career 2.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and he has struck out more than 30% of all the batters he has faced. He has won two Cy Young Awards. However, deGrom also has made only 26 starts over the past two seasons, succumbing to shoulder and elbow ailments. He is 34. Volume matters, and I find it hard to justify a top-30 selection on someone with so much injury risk.
Cleveland Guardians middle infielders: The dynamic and surprising duo of Amed Rosario (SS) and Andres Gimenez (2B) combined for 59 walks in 1,227 plate appearances last season. Yes, they also delivered 28 home runs and 38 stolen bases between them, along with strong batting averages, but the lack of plate discipline makes it unlikely they can hit for average annually. They simply do not feel like top-100 players (certainly not in points formats), and there no longer is an active middle infield spot in ESPN leagues (or corner infield either), making it less likely to take risks.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: A wonderful player to watch hit and defend when healthy, but you know the problem here. Buxton, 29, has made it to 100 games and 400 plate appearances in only one of his eight big league seasons, and he’s not exactly Mike Trout at the plate, either. Buxton hit .224 last season with a 30.4% strikeout rate. He stole 29 bases in that magical — and mostly healthy — 2017 season, but he attempted only six steals last season (in his 92 games). Hope for the best, but brittle players generally do not suddenly become durable as they age. Buxton as a later-round pick sounds great, but it’s not going to happen. By the way, new Boston Red Sox SS Adalberto Mondesi is now a late-round pick and thus gets to avoid his annual ridicule/shaming here.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox: Sale, as with Buxton, might be healthy today, but what can we expect tomorrow? Sale has made a mere 11 starts over the past three seasons. Unlike Buxton, he proved himself as one of fantasy’s finest for a seven-year period, making the All-Star team each season and earning myriad Cy Young Award votes, but we are investing for this season and beyond. Sale turns 34 in late March. As with deGrom, assume Sale pitches well when he pitches, but volume is the issue. Other starting pitchers worthy of mention here include Houston Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (he’s already out until at least April), Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Dustin May (innings limit in his return from Tommy John surgery) and Milwaukee Brewers LHP Aaron Ashby (shoulder woes always concern us).
Pennsylvania’s third basemen: Neither Pittsburgh Pirates defender Ke’Bryan Hayes nor Philadelphia Phillies non-defender Alec Bohm are worthy of spots in ESPN’s new, shallower format. A highlight defensive player, Hayes simply has not hit enough to warrant a roster spot. Blame the home ballpark or a low fly ball rate or everyone expecting too much, but Hayes has slugged just .386 through his first 1,051 big league plate appearances. That’s well below an acceptable level for a corner infielder, and there is little sign of things changing. Bohm, a brutal defensive option, has slugged a sad .391 in his career. Yes, he hit .280 last season but only .253 with a discouraging .629 OPS versus right-handed pitching, and there is far more right-handed pitching out there. Bohm hit .352 off left-handers. Fine, so utilize him that way in daily formats.
All Colorado Rockies pitchers: Closer Daniel Bard is the lone Rockies hurler going in the first 500 picks of NFBC leagues, which is smart, but we really should have doubts about him repeating his stunning 2022 season. Bard, 37, did mature last year as he relied more on a hard sinker to retire left-handed hitters, but he was also fortunate to escape with a 1.79 ERA, regardless of his home venue. Bard enjoyed a .221 BABIP, the fifth most generous among qualified relief hurlers (avoid Paul Sewald and his .158 BABIP, too!). Bard did not “conquer” Coors Field. He just had a magical season. And don’t think about any other Rockies such as “ace” German Marquez for road games, either. Marquez did post a 3.43 road ERA last season, but that road mark was a bloated 5.38 in 2021.