It’s the final NHL Awards Watch of the 2022-23 season. Some of these races feel like they’ve been over for months.
The betting markets certainly think so, with heavy favorites having been established for MVP, rookie of the year and top goalie, to name a few.
Yet as the voters get their ballots in the last stages of the regular season, there’s always room of reconsideration and additional context.
“It turns out there are some difficult decisions ahead. Some of these things I am not saying with as much conviction as I once did,” said one voter we surveyed. “Lots of good options, as it turns out.”
Welcome to the NHL Awards Watch for April. We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross section of the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng finalists; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina. Also keep in mind the unofficial “you have to be in it to win it” protocol for the Hart and the Jack Adams.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
It’s safe to say at this point that Connor McDavid will win the Art Ross. He has 146 points through 77 games, well ahead of his teammate Leon Draisaitl, who is in second with 120.
Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)
Actually, it’s also safe to say that McDavid will win the Rocket Richard, too. He’s at 62 goals through 77 games, while second-place David Pastrnak has 56 through 76.
The last player to lead the league in goals and points was Alex Ovechkin in the 2007-08 season, when he won the Hart Trophy but not unanimously. Will history repeat itself?
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Finalists: David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins; Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres
Despite one of the greatest offensive seasons in NHL history, Connor McDavid has never been a unanimous choice for the Hart Trophy throughout the 2022-23 NHL Awards Watch series.
And he still isn’t.
McDavid captured all but two of the first-place votes for MVP from our panelists. He’s currently on pace for the 13th-highest points-per-game season in NHL history (min. 75 games). McDavid is hitting the scoresheet with such frequency that his season has been compared to dominant ones from Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux — the rarest of rarified air for an NHL star.
He still has a chance to pass Alex Ovechkin’s 65 goals from 2007-08, which was the highest total since Mario’s 69 goals in 1995-96.
McDavid’s teammate Leon Draisaitl is the second-highest points scorer in the NHL the season, and there’s a chance Connor might finish 30 points ahead of him.
“This is easily the simplest awards vote I’ve ever had to make,” one McDavid backer said.
It’s been a magical season for McDavid, carrying Edmonton through injury absences and porous goaltending to a postseason berth. He’s clearly the favorite to win the Hart, but those fans who believe he should be a unanimous choice better prepare their tirades.
One voter opted for Pastrnak, the Bruins’ star winger. He’s second to McDavid in goals. There’s a chance he could finish with twice as many goals as anyone else on the Bruins’ roster this season while leading the team by more than 30 points over the next highest scorer.
Therein lies the argument for Pastrnak: He has been the most productive player on the best team in the NHL this season, a constant for them as others have been in and out of the lineup. It’s the 2018-19 Nikita Kucherov formula, when he won the Hart as the leading scorer of an all-time great Tampa Bay Lightning regular-season team. The difference being that Kucherov also led the NHL in points, and Pastrnak will not.
The other first-place vote went to Thompson, as one voter simply felt the Sabres star was that vital to the team despite Buffalo no longer being in the playoff mix. He’ll lead the second-best scorers on his team by a significant gap in goals and points, that’s for sure. Are they close enough to the playoff bubble to get Thompson some additional voter love?
Some other names that garnered mentions but not first-place votes were Colorado Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen, New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes and Matthew Tkachuk, who is currently attempting to drag the Florida Panthers into the playoffs.
“Tkachuk could vault into second here, but that will take a remarkable finish,” one voter said.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks
Finalists: Adam Fox, New York Rangers; Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets
Karlsson remains the top choice for the Norris, once again holding down two-thirds of the first-place votes. It would be the third Norris win of his career and his first since 2015.
“Nothing’s changed and nothing will change,” one voter said.
It’s going to take a spectacular finish for Karlsson to become the sixth defenseman in NHL history to achieve a 100-point season. For all the hype about Karlsson’s dominant campaign — much of it surrounding the “you’ve still got it!” nature of his resurgence — his point total may end up in the neighborhood of Roman Josi‘s 96 points last season for Nashville. Josi finished second for the Norris.
The knock on Karlsson’s candidacy this season, as it has been in past campaigns, is his defense. The Sharks defenseman had his worst plus-minus month in March, skating to a minus-11. But Karlsson is actually on the positive side of expected goals against at 5-on-5 relative to his teammates.
There’s no question that Karlsson’s support, while considerable, has its share of fence-sitters. One voter we surveyed had Karlsson on top, but a lot of love for Fox of the Rangers.
“This remains extremely difficult, despite Karlsson’s historic production this season,” they said. “Adam Fox is right there in terms of his on-ice impact, and there’s an argument to be made his impact is in fact greater. I’m still not sure on this one, but for now, I’m going with Karlsson.”
Fox was the clear second choice, and the only other defenseman to appear on multiple ballots in first place.
He could finish as high as third among defensemen in points this season. Unlike Karlsson, who averages 22 seconds per game on the penalty kill, Fox makes an impact in every facet of the Rangers’ game. The Norris winner in 2021, he’s got another strong case.
“You’ve been asking all year, and I keep settling on Fox,” one voter said. “I know the Sharks are terrible and it’s not entirely his fault, but I can’t bring myself to give my vote to Erik Karlsson, who’s 10th-worst in the league among defensemen (with at least 1,000 minutes) with 3.24 goals-against per 60 minutes. Fox is at 2.0 GA/60 minutes. Defense still counts in the ‘best defenseman’ award.”
Meanwhile, Morrissey is making a late run at the Norris. He’s one of only four defensemen to receive a first-place vote from our panelists and was mentioned as a possible runner-up by a few others.
The Jets blueliner had 69 points in 73 games, by far the best offensive output of his career. While he actually plays less on the penalty kill than Karlsson (20 seconds per game on average), he’s had a stronger defensive impact relative to his teammates.
“Karlsson will probably win. Morrissey should,” said the voter that put Morrissey first on their ballot.
Another tried to keep hope alive: “The door is still open for Morrissey to rise to No. 1 with a strong finish, but I can’t ignore the offensive impact for EK65, despite the poor effort in the defensive zone.”
Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche was the other defenseman to receive a first-place vote. Last year’s Norris winner has been limited by injuries, but he’s second behind Karlsson points-per-game average.
“Makar has enough runway to vault into top spot as well, given his incredible production after returning from injury,” one voter said.
Falling out of the top three is Rasmus Dahlin of the Buffalo Sabres, who may have faded as his team’s playoff hopes did too. Alas, no love for Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes, who is having a strong season, nor for Bruins defenseman Hampus Lindholm.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Matty Beniers, Seattle Kraken
Finalists: Matias Maccelli, Arizona Coyotes; Owen Power, Buffalo Sabres
Beniers is no longer a unanimous choice for Calder, although he remains the strong consensus pick.
The Kraken center was the top choice on all but three of the panelists’ Calder ballots. He has a significant lead in points among rookies and has played a vital role in the Kraken’s first season of playoff contention — although they’ve sheltered him a bit with offensive zone starts and little responsibility on the penalty kill. His 17:05 of average ice time is second among all rookie forwards.
He has been as good as advertised for Seattle and has a strong hold in the Calder. But is his Michigan Wolverines teammate Owen Power making a late run?
Power was the only other player to receive multiple first-place votes. The Sabres defenseman leads all rookies in average ice time (23:48) in what’s been a steady, successful season for the No. 1 pick in 2021.
“I have two things I factor into my Calder voting: How did they perform after the All-Star break, when it gets tougher, and their role,” one voter explained. “Playing a top-four role on defense as a rookie is much more difficult than playing forward, even center. Matty Beniers, since the break has not separated himself like he did in the first half, and Power has remained excellent.”
Maccelli was the other player to receive a first-place vote. The 22-year-old Coyotes rookie has been a solid playmaker this season at even strength, where he’s tallied the majority of his points. He hasn’t had the defensive impact of Beniers, but he’s managed to make a big offensive impact despite starting just 43% of his shifts in the attacking zone.
At this point, Beniers is probably the only lock to make the top three for the Calder. There are a lot of candidates bubbling under the surface. Ottawa Senators defenseman Jake Sanderson seemed to have the most momentum.
“Sanderson is close here for me as well,” one voter said.
“Jake Sanderson is just edged out here, though I may flip-flop, looking closer at the massive role he’s playing this season for the Sens,” another voter said.
Dallas Stars rookie Wyatt Johnston is challenging Beniers for the rookie goal lead. Ottawa’s Shane Pinto and Columbus’s Kirill Marchenko are also right there, with the latter doing a lot of offensive damage in fewer games than his peers. Anaheim center Mason MacTavish was a top three candidate last month, but his candidacy has cooled off a bit.
One name absent from our ballots was Edmonton Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner, the most successful rookie at that position this season, who helped steady the Oilers when Jack Campbell struggled. He was just named rookie of the month for March.
If there was any consensus from the voters, it’s that this rookie crop left something to be desired.
“Beniers, by default,” one voter said.
“I guess it’s Beniers. It’s a pretty meh rookie class, if we’re being honest about it,” another said.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: General managers vote for this award.
Leader: Linus Ullmark, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets; Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
This has been the top three for three months running now.
Ullmark seems to check all the boxes for Vezina voters. He’ll have the wins, which are typically the metric to which the GMs pay the most attention. His traditional stats are the best in the league. His underlying numbers place him near the top in goals saved above expected.
He’s one of the primary reasons why the Bruins are doing what they’re doing this season, but he’s not the primary reason. Which is why the candidacy of Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin is interesting.
“He probably won’t win. But he should,” one voter said.
Sorokin was the only other goalie to receive multiple first-place votes from our panelists. His numbers are strong across the board in traditional stats and analytically. Plus there’s the perception that without him, the Islanders would be a lottery team.
“In any other year — possibly even this one — you could make a hell of a Hart Trophy case for him, too,” one voter said.
Hellebuyck is also credited with carrying the Jets back to playoff contention. The 2020 Vezina winner has faced the third-most shot attempts for any goalie this season, and he has been a great last line of defense for a middle of the pack defensive team at 5-on-5.
Two other names to watch here. Nashville Predators goalie Juuse Saros could end up with the most saves by a goalie this season, as he did everything he could to keep the Predators in playoff contention. He has strong underlying numbers, too. Saros received one first-place vote from our panel.
As for the others, one voter put it this way: “Important to note that Jake Oettinger has entered the chat.”
The Dallas Stars goalie has stellar numbers behind a strong team. Plus he’s started so many games for them with backup Scott Wedgewood injured.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Mitchell Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs; Jordan Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
As one voter put it: “Yawn.”
Bergeron was the first-place choice on all but one of the ballots we surveyed. “He’s made it impossible to vote against him,” one panelist said.
The Bruins captain is winning over 60% of his faceoffs. Boston has around two expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and a save percentage north of .950 when he’s on the ice.
Bergeron is well on his way to extending his NHL record for Selke wins to six.
Staal, the only other player to receive a first-place vote, is seeking his first Selke win. He has only been a finalist once, way back in 2009-10 with the Penguins. Like Bergeron with the Bruins, he has an incredible impact when he’s on the ice for the Hurricanes. Staal anchored one of the most effective lines in hockey this season with Jesper Fast and Jordan Martinook.
Marner didn’t earn a first-place vote but had a lot of support in honorable mentions. He’s an excellent penalty killer, although his overall defensive impact at 5-on-5 this season might be a little overstated compared to previous seasons. His biggest obstacle: A winger hasn’t won the Selke since Jere Lehtinen in 2002-03.
Another player to watch: Nico Hischier of the New Jersey Devils, who also received some honorable mention support. But this is all a race for No. 2 behind Bergeron.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association.
New Jersey Devils center Jack Hughes (6 PIM in 71 games) and Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point (7 PIM in 76 games) are both solid citizens. But if the voters opt for a defenseman, Jaccob Slavin of the Hurricanes, who won the Byng in 2021, has just eight penalty minutes while averaging 22:05 per night of tough defensive play.
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Jim Montgomery, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Dean Evason, Minnesota Wild; Lindy Ruff, New Jersey Devils
Montgomery has kept the Bruins atop the NHL all season and pointed toward breaking regular-season records. The players, to a man, credit the impact he’s had on the team’s systems and psyche. He’s also a terrific story, turning his career and life around after being dismissed by Dallas in 2019.
“Jim Montgomery has figured out how to get the best from his players — stars, supporting cast, young guys — without using fear, intimidation, and shame as ‘motivating’ factors,” one voter said.
Or, as another Montgomery voter said: “If he doesn’t win they should open an investigation.”
Granted, there’s a chance he might not win. Ruff was atop multiple ballots from the writers for the way the Devils have played this season, making a triumphant return to the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
“With how the Devils have performed, I can’t ignore the job Lindy has done turning them from ‘fun to watch’ to ‘winning while playing a fast-paced and fun style,'” one voter said.
Montgomery and Ruff were the only coaches to get first-place votes from the writers. Evason had the most support in the honorable mentions. He has managed the Wild through inconsistency and injuries. Getting lights-out goaltending from Filip Gustavsson hasn’t hurt, although he probably doesn’t have the starts for Vezina consideration.
Another coach that earned a mention: Jared Bednar of the Colorado Avalanche. “In some ways my temptation is to have Bednar third, given what he’s dealt with on injury front,” said one voter that slotted Montgomery and Evason as their first and second choices.