McShay’s latest NFL draft rumblings: Chaos at No. 2? Trade at No. 3? QB at No. 5?

Thursday night is going to be fun. I’ve been talking with execs, scouts, coaches and other evaluators around the league to get the latest surrounding how each team might use their 2023 NFL draft picks and which top prospects are on the rise. My biggest takeaway: We’re in for some surprises.

Of course, we won’t know for sure how the board will fall until the first-round picks start coming in, and you can always expect some smoke screens at this stage, but the buzz points to some unexpected targets in the top 10 and some potential shuffling up and down the board. Which teams are in on quarterbacks, and which passers are high on their boards? Who could be looking to jump up for a certain player or slide down for more draft capital? Which prospects could go higher than expected, and which selections might throw chaos into Round 1?

Here’s what I’m hearing from my discussions, beginning with the direction that the wind is currently blowing for teams with top-10 picks. I also shared intel on teams that could shake things up outside the top 10, names I heard a lot in conversations with decision-makers and some risers to know.

Jump to:
Top 10 | Other intriguing teams
Prospects on rise | Other notes, buzz

Teams in the top 10

There’s not much reason to spend a ton of time on Carolina. Based on numerous conversations with league sources, I have every indication Alabama quarterback Bryce Young will be the first player off the board. The draft really starts at No. 2. Young is my top-ranked prospect in the class and can be the long-term fix for the Panthers under center.

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This is where it gets interesting in a hurry. I’ve spoken to a lot of people around the NFL about the Texans and keep hearing Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud will not be the pick. It could all be a smoke screen, but what’s the benefit in spreading misinformation if Stroud is the pick? Nothing would totally shock me at this point, but it really sounds like the Texans will pass on the quarterbacks, which goes against everything we’ve thought for months.

It also opens up the possibility of a trade back since there are plenty of QB-needy teams looking to land a potential star signal-caller this week. We’ve assumed all along the Texans wouldn’t trade within the AFC South, but I’ve heard the Colts (No. 4) and Titans (No. 11) are both intrigued by the passers in this class and could jump up. If Houston knows Indianapolis wouldn’t take a player it wants — again, I’m hearing Houston is OK passing on the top quarterbacks — and it can pick up additional draft capital by moving back, there’s some logic to it. I wouldn’t say it’s likely, but I also wouldn’t be shocked. And remember, Houston also has the No. 12 pick to address needs.

So what happens if Houston stays home at No. 2? Many probably think it takes Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., and some sources I’ve spoken to are convinced that’s what it ultimately does. But here’s a curveball in it all: I’ve heard Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson‘s name connected to the Texans with this pick. New coach DeMeco Ryans had a lot of success with Nick Bosa in San Francisco, and Wilson is another long, powerful edge rusher. I’m not saying Wilson is going to be Bosa, but he might be the closest thing to him in this draft class in terms of physical traits. And whether it’s Wilson or Anderson, my intel says the most likely outcome Thursday is Houston staying put and taking one of the top two edge rushers.

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The Cardinals are borderline desperate to move out of this spot, and considering the QB class, they’ve been smart to wait. I could see a bidding war for the pick unfolding between Indianapolis, Tennessee and any other teams looking for a QB on draft night. With arguably the worst roster in the NFL, Arizona would love to slide back and pick up more selections to work on the rebuild.

Arizona hired defensive-minded coach Jonathan Gannon, and there’s a feeling it can get things fixed on that side of the ball. But I keep hearing the team wants to improve the offensive line and better protect Kyler Murray. That sets up an interesting scenario. We’ve all mocked Anderson or Wilson to the Cards for a while, but if they are truly looking for big-time offensive line reinforcements, could they slide back and take Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski? I’ve heard they are interested, and moving back would not only give them more picks down the board (and/or in future years) but also put them in a better value range for him.

Even if it’s all the way back to No. 11, Skoronski could be available. If not, one or both of Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. should be there. All three offensive tackles are top-14 players on my board.

OK, but what happens if Arizona can’t find a dance partner in a trade back? I think it then takes one of the defensive ends on the board. Even in that scenario, I wouldn’t rule out addressing the offensive line, which appears to be the front office’s biggest concern. The chaos could start early Thursday.

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The Will Levis-Colts buzz is very real, folks. Indianapolis seems to be extremely intrigued by the Kentucky quarterback. In fact, if Levis is off the board, I’m not sure what the Colts do from there. The only information I’ve heard on them this week is they’re interested in Levis. Things could change, but that’s the latest buzz around the league, and Matt Miller was hearing similar stuff at the end of last week.

The next question is whether Indy would move up for him or stay put. Tennessee has been connected to him, too, so the Colts might opt to trade up to block their division mate and land their preferred passer.

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I have a strong sense Seattle won’t leave Round 1 without a quarterback. The more I talk to execs, scouts, coaches and agents, the more I think the Seahawks could be targeting Stroud or even Florida’s Anthony Richardson at this spot, depending on who is there. Stroud is 21 years old and Richardson is 20, and the idea is either could sit behind Geno Smith in the short-term and develop into the answer for the long-term.

If both are gone, that means either Anderson or Wilson will be there, and I expect that’d be the direction Seattle goes. Multiple sources have told me Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter isn’t expected be the pick. I don’t see Carter falling out of the top 10, but it’s reasonable he could slide to the back end of it.

One final note on Seattle: If it doesn’t take a quarterback at No. 5, keep an eye on Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker at No. 20, the team’s other first-round slot. He’s older (25), but it’s another option for a team thinking about the future under center.

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This is another franchise that perhaps surprisingly might be in the QB market, and I consider this Stroud’s parachute slot if he drops out of the top five. He’s a younger, less expensive version of Jared Goff with better physical traits, and if he’s there, you bet the Lions would take a close look. I have not heard Richardson’s name connected to Detroit, though.

Either of the top two edge rushers would probably be the pick if Stroud isn’t there. But if both Anderson and Wilson are gone, this might be where the cornerbacks start coming off the board, and either Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon or Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez would likely be the selection. My guess is Witherspoon has the edge based on his physical play style and how he can help in run support. Detroit brought in veteran cornerback reinforcements in March, but it also traded Jeff Okudah earlier this month, and its opponents averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt last season, 31st in the NFL.

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The Raiders explored a trade up to No. 1 for Young earlier this offseason, but after they were unable to get that done, everything I’m hearing now points to Vegas being out on the quarterbacks.

The belief around the NFL is Las Vegas will instead target a cornerback here, either Witherspoon or Gonzalez. They are both top-tier prospects at the position, and it comes down to whether the Raiders prefer the physical cover skills of Witherspoon or the elite physical traits of Gonzalez (and whether either is off the board). For what it’s worth, about two-thirds of the folks I’ve spoken to have Witherspoon over Gonzalez, though that isn’t specific to the Raiders. I also have Witherspoon (No. 7) ahead of Gonzalez (No. 8) on my own board.

While I keep hearing cornerback, this is a potential landing spot for Carter, too. Las Vegas has a need at defensive tackle, and Carter is arguably the most talented prospect in the class.

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This might be the most likely cornerback selection in the top 10, as long as both Witherspoon and Gonzalez aren’t already off the board. Landing one of those two to play opposite A.J. Terrell gives this defense an extremely talented duo on the outside.

If neither are there, though, I gather the Falcons could explore a trade back. You also might have heard some rumblings about Texas running back Bijan Robinson here, and he could be the pick if the corners aren’t available.

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This could be the Carter pick. To be clear, I don’t have direct info the Bears like Carter, but they’ve spent a lot of time with him and putting in work on him. And he makes a lot of sense for them. Coach Matt Eberflus’ defense hinges on a 3-technique with penetrating ability, and that’s Carter. Chicago traded back, picked up all those additional picks, added a new WR1 in DJ Moore and could now select perhaps the best prospect in the 2023 class way back at No. 9? That’s a huge win.

If Carter isn’t there, I could see Chicago entertaining a trade back for even more draft capital. It needs defensive line help, and dropping back into range for Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness, Georgia’s Nolan Smith or Pitt’s Calijah Kancey makes sense. Alternatively, the Bears could hold at No. 9 and take Skoronski, a safe pick that would be a big boost to the offensive line and help protect Justin Fields.

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We know GM Howie Roseman likes to build through the trenches in the draft, and that’s exactly what I’m hearing the focus will be for Philadelphia in Round 1. The Eagles lost Javon Hargrave on the interior, and Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are both older players on one-year deals, hence the defensive line buzz. I’m not sure the Eagles have a specific player in mind here, but Van Ness’ versatility would fit with their scheme. I’m sure they’d explore Smith here, too, but he’s very similar to Haason Reddick off the edge, whom they already have in the fold. And I’ve heard differing reports on the team’s interest in Carter.

It sounds like defensive line is more likely the target than offensive line, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles opt for Skoronski here, too. He’d be instant protection for newly signed Jalen Hurts as a future left tackle who could play anywhere on the line in the meantime. In short, it looks like best player available in the trenches.

On the running back chatter, I don’t think Philadelphia picks Robinson here, even if it’s a really good fit. But I will say the Eagles have done their homework on him, and I wonder if they could wrap their heads around taking him if they trade back a bit. If they pick up additional draft capital and already have the other first-rounder at No. 30, picking Robinson down the board wouldn’t be wild.

Other intriguing teams

We alluded to it earlier, but yes, Tennessee is in the QB mix. I’ve heard there’s real interest in Stroud and Levis, with the latter being the more recent name.

Tennessee has been among the most active teams working the phones to put together a potential draft-night trade, speaking to at least four different teams about a move either up or down the board. There is a belief that the Titans will target a player to move up for — likely one of those quarterbacks — but then pivot to a trade-down attempt if it doesn’t come together, picking up more draft capital. And any move down the board would likely keep them inside the top 20. I’ve heard Hooker’s name as a possible target if they do drop down the board. Remember, Ryan Tannehill is turning 35 years old and is on the decline.

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Offensive tackle is the biggest need here, and since Skoronski isn’t expected to still be on the board, the Jets would likely pivot to Jones or Johnson. But if the top three offensive tackles are gone? I wouldn’t rule out a trade back. New York could lose one of its two second-rounders in the much-anticipated Aaron Rodgers deal, and it doesn’t have a third-rounder, so picking up more picks might be beneficial.

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I’ve heard Pittsburgh has contacted multiple teams, including the Bears (No. 9) and Titans (No. 11), about trading up for an offensive tackle. The Steelers need a long-term answer as protection for Kenny Pickett, and there are three potential cornerstone left tackles in this class who will be available in that range. It wasn’t that long ago that Pittsburgh moved up in Round 1 and took linebacker Devin Bush, and we could see a similar move this year, albeit for a different position.

Who is going earlier than we thought?

Kancey has been talked about as a fringe first-rounder, but based on conversations with a bunch of people, I feel strongly he’ll end up a top-20 pick. He impressed at the combine, running a 4.67 in the 40-yard dash at 281 pounds, and he’s an explosive disruptor on the interior. And after Carter and Kancey, there is a serious drop-off at defensive tackle. There are good players like Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton and Clemson’s Bryan Bresee, who have upside as pass-rushers, but neither have put up much sack production. That could be the difference, as Kancey has 14 over the past two years.

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When I’m making calls and decision-makers start asking me what I’ve heard on certain players, that typically means there is growing interest around those guys. And look, I don’t know where Gibbs ends up going, but I do know I’ve heard his name a lot this week. Some teams don’t even have that big of a gap between Robinson and him, which is telling because Robinson is a star. The thinking is even if you get Gibbs for limited carries each Sunday — he’s only 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, and isn’t thought to be a volume-heavy back — he can still make a very big impact. And with a down wide receiver class, teams might be thinking about drafting Gibbs and giving him snaps out of the slot. Bottom line, I’d be surprised at this point if he doesn’t go in Round 1.

What else I’m hearing

• I’ve gotten a lot of different answers on this class’ WR2 behind Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who is getting just about all of the love as WR1). I like Boston College’s Zay Flowers and have him ranked No. 21 overall, and he’s Mel Kiper Jr.’s second-best receiver, too. But just because we agree on something for once doesn’t mean it’s consensus. I’ve heard three names: Flowers, USC’s Jordan Addison and TCU’s Quentin Johnston. Based on my intel, all three could end up going in the Nos. 20-31 range, but there are only so many teams that need a receiver. Johnston might go higher than expected because this wide receiver class is on the smaller side, and he’s a big-bodied pass-catcher at 6-foot-3, 208 pounds.

• Ole Miss receiver Jonathan Mingo is a hot name right now, and he’s looking like a top-50 pick. I’d stop short of saying he’s heading toward the first round, but I don’t expect him to wait long Friday to hear his name.

• I keep hearing Hooker will get picked in the top 20. If Tennessee moves back — maybe to No. 17 in a swap with the OL-needy Steelers — that could be a team to watch. But Tampa Bay and Minnesota have been linked to him, as well.

• Speaking of Tampa Bay, everyone is trying to figure out its plan. The Buccaneers have been very quiet. There’s some mystery around their approach, but some people have wondered if they’d be in on a quarterback if one drops.

• Scouts, coaches and execs have a lot to say about this tight end class. The deepest in a decade. The deepest in recent memory. In some cases, even the deepest ever. Everyone is amazed by not only the overall talent but also the variety. I have eight of them in my top 100, and while only two — Utah’s Dalton Kincaid and Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer — are likely to go in Round 1, I’d be pretty surprised if all eight aren’t off the board by the end of Day 2.

• One big riser is TCU interior lineman Steve Avila. He could go late Round 1. At worst, he’s probably off the board in the first 10 picks on Day 2. Teams love his versatility. He’s a solid player.

• OK, want some Day 2 names getting buzz? Wisconsin defensive tackle Keeanu Benton, South Carolina defensive tackle Zacch Pickens, Texas A&M running back Devon Achane, NC State guard Chandler Zavala, Auburn running back Tank Bigsby and Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown were all mentioned to me. Penn State receiver Parker Washington could also go earlier than expected, and some teams might treat him as a third-down back in the pros thanks for his compact running style and ability with the ball in his hands.

• Three cornerbacks popped up in a lot in conversations as potential Day 2 values: Kansas State’s Julius Brents (who could go in the late parts of Round 1), Minnesota’s Terell Smith and Purdue’s Cory Trice. They are all traits-heavy prospects with length, speed and press-coverage ability, and teams are always looking for those types of defensive backs.