Fantasy fans are a passionate bunch. We love planting flags. Whether it’s creating a list of “my guys” to cataloging players we’ll “never draft,” the excitement of an upcoming fantasy season always results in forming some very strong opinions.
Prop bets can work as an outlet for these fervent fantasy feelings. They allow managers to double-down on enthusiastic takes while also providing potential context for a player’s season long projection.
Will Patrick Mahomes top 5,000 passing yards for the second year in a row? What could a third-year breakout look like for Trevor Lawrence?
Vegas has thoughts. We have answers.
Here are five preseason QB props that pop.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs O/U 4,750.5 passing yards
Daniel: You know what, I’m not ready to doubt Mahomes. Last year, with average wide receiver play, he threw for 5250 yards. His top WR was JuJu Smith-Schuster, and now he’s gone — replaced by Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney, but I don’t really think the WRs matter. As long as Kelce’s still in town I’m on team Mahomes to lead the league in passing yards. He’s beat 4750 passing yards in back-to-back seasons, and was just 10 yards short (4,740) in 2020. I’m taking the OVER on 4,750 for Mahomes this year. I love optimism right off the bat!
Liz: I’m with you 100%, DD. Mahomes is the ultimate problem solver, able to deliver to all levels of the field… and with both hands. His ability to adjust sans Tyreek — pressing pause on the deep ball and, instead, peppering the middle of the field — was shockingly seamless. Mahomes’ current corps all have speed and/or YAC ability for days, which should keep his passing stats OVER-ly robust.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills O/U 575.5 rushing yards
Liz: Allen might be the only QB to threaten Showtime’s standing as fantasy’s QB1. Mahomes may have thrown for 1,000 more yards, but Allen used his legs to clear 760 rushing yards (more than doubling Mahome’s 2022 rushing numbers) for the second year in a row. While it’s thrilling to watch Allen exit the pocket (more than 7 times per game) and move like a man possessed, it’s also dangerous. After last year’s elbow injury, Sean McDermott has been clear about wanting the former Wyoming Cowboy to tame his playing style. I think it’s fair, therefore, to anticipate fewer designed runs (Allen recorded the fifth-most last year) for the 27-year-old in 2023. But they’re not going away completely and Allen isn’t changing what makes him special in a season. I’ll take the OVER on 575.5 rushing yards (while expecting a regression from 700).
Daniel: You laid out the argument pretty perfectly, Liz. I’m worried the Bills will want to preserve Allen for the long term by asking him to run less, but they also don’t want to completely change who he is as a quarterback. They’ve gotta let him use his legs and be the rushing weapon he is. That’s just part of Allen’s makeup! I’m with you on taking the over on 575.5 rushing yards, while also seeing a regression in his total rushing number.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets O/U 3,925.5 passing yards
Daniel: Rodgers looked like a different quarterback last year. He wasn’t the dominate force we’ve come to expect, and that was in large part because he lost his No. 1 target in Davante Adams. Green Bay replaced that one guy with two guys: 2nd round rookie Christian Watson and Allan Lazard.
Rodgers’ play suffered, culminating in a humiliating Week 18 loss to the Detroit Lions, keeping him out of the playoffs in his final season as a Green Bay Packer. I mean, that may have been one of the best moments of my life, watching Rodgers walk off the field as deflated as Patriots AFC Championship game football.
But we’re not here to talk about me, we’re talking about Rodgers throwing at least 3,925.5 passing yards this season. My initial instinct is to take the over because coming into last year, he’d beaten that number for four consecutive seasons, but I am a little worried because when Rodgers did that he was seeing the two of the bottom 10 teams in the league (Lions and Bears) four times a season. He won’t have those cake games in his division this year. The Jets were 6th in pass attempts (and dead last in completion percentage — ouch) but that’s also because they lost Breece Hall in Week 7 and couldn’t ground and pound with their defense they way they wanted to, so I’m actually going to take the UNDER on this bet. What say you, Liz. There’s more room on this anti-Rodgers bandwagon for another NFC North fan!
Liz: There are always so many words about Aaron Rodgers. I agree with nearly all of yours. After 18 years of my Bears being owned by him, I will happily bet the UNDER.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 4,050.5 passing yards
Liz: Speaking of getting owned. Lawrence looked pretty good with Urban Meyer out the door, huh? Flashing that loudly touted generational talent, Lawrence closed out his sophomore campaign with twice as many passing scores (25) and half as many INTs (8). Another year in Doug Pederson’s offense along with the addition of Calvin Ridley and a top-eight strength of schedule have me believing in TLaw’s QB1 fantasy potential. But, here’s the thing. He’s still only 23-years-old. And the Jags offensive line is troubling. I think it’s likely he’ll pass for 4,100 yards, but a few bad decisions and a couple of hard hits… and that’s a losing bet. Because this prop is so close to my projection, I’m going with the UNDER.
Daniel: What a tough line to figure out for Lawrence! I too want to take the over because of all the things you mentioned — we think he’s taking another step forward and this offense should be better, but I’m with you on not feeling like there’s not quite enough here for me to take the over, I’ll go UNDER as well.
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons O/U 15.5 passing TDs
Daniel: This one’s gonna be fun. I’m really intrigued to see what Ridder looks like this year. A 3rd round pick out of Cincinnati last year, Ridder started the final four games and threw only two touchdowns. To his credit, he didn’t throw a pick either, which is impressive in 115 attempts as a rookie. This is really hard for me because I really do think Ridder can average more than 1 TD per game as the full time starter this year. But it’s mostly anecdotal for me. With Drake London heading into year 2, Kyle Pitts getting healthy and the addition of Bijan Robinson, who will also be heavily utilized in the passing game, I’m taking the optimistic approach here and expecting a 2nd year bump for Ridder. He has a phenomenal young trio surrounding him and I think they can put him over the top here. I’m taking the OVER.
Liz: It’s the London/Pitts/Robinson of it for me, too! I get that Ridder has some real accuracy issues to overcome, but he showed in college that he could confidently produce in the pocket once he was able to establish a rhythm. The pass-catchers in Atlanta are melody makers. If Ridder doesn’t clear the above line it’s because he’s benched for Taylor Heinicke (which I’m never not here for). I’m taking the OVER too.